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Note no. 349
8.11.2006
NEPAL: Comprehensive Agreement Reached Between Maoists & the Seven Party Alliance – Update No.108
by Dr. S. Chandrasekharan
After 14 hours of discussions, the Maoists and the Seven Party alliance leaders reached a final “six points agreement” in the early hours of 8th Nov. 2006. The agreement is truly a historic one that it is likely to change the entire political landscape of the country and will be formally signed on 16th November.
The highlights of the agreement are -
I. Arms Management
1. The Arms of the Maoists and an equal number of arms of the Nepalese Army will be stored under a single lock system. The keys will be retained by the combatants and arms stored will be monitored by CCTV and alarm systems provided by the UN. (It is claimed that the Maoists have in all 20,000 modern arms – a number that is many times more than the weapons lost by the Nepalese Army in the conflict. It is not clear how the Maoists could have obtained such a large quantity of arms within a short period of eight years). Both GP and Prachanda have had their way – with one lock system as GP wanted and the key to be retained as Prachanda wanted.
2. Some quantity of arms will be retained for security of the camps by the Maoists.
3. Maoists cadres will be housed in seven major cantonments – in the districts of Ilam, Kavve, Palpa, Rolpa, Sindhuli & Kailali (These are said to be 35,000 cadres – a number, larger than expected – surprisingly there are no camps in the Terai).
II Interim Arrangements
1. An interim legislature will be formed with 330 members. All those members of the previous parliament except those who did not participate in the Jana Andolan (mass movement) will remain as members. Of these, the Nepali Congress will have 75 members, the UML & Maoists will have 73 members each, NCD will have 42 & others will have 48.
2. The interim constitution will be announced on 26th November. The interim constitution, interim legislature and the interim government will all be in place by 1st December – The people’s government and the people’s court of the Maoists will be dissolved on the same day.
3. Elections to the Constitutional Assembly will be held by the second week of June 2007. Elections will be monitored by the United Nations.
4. In the first meeting of the Constitutional Assembly, the future of monarchy will be decided, by a simple majority of the house.
5. The king will have no role in the country’s affairs till then and the properties of late King Birendra and Queen Ayswaroya and of the family members will be nationalised and converted into a trust.
III Constitutional Assembly
1. The Constituent Assembly will consist of 425 members. Of these 205 will be elected by “first past the post” system, and 16 to be nominated by the cabinet. The rest will be elected on a proportional representation basis.
2. All Nepali citizens over 18 years of age will be eligible to vote in the CA elections.
IV Points Relating to Implementation
1. There will be a Constitutional Council presided over by the Prime Minister with the Chief Justice and the speaker of the Interim Assembly as members. A constitutional court will also be formed to deal with problems arising over the interim constitution.
2. Local bodies will be run according the understanding between the SPA and the Maoists.
3. Citizenship – Issues relating citizenship will be resolved before the CA elections. The cut off date for distribution of certificates will be 1990.
V Others Issues
1. A High level commission will be formed to recommend restructuring of the states and the existing unitary central governance will be converted into inclusive, democratic and a progressive one to end class, ethnic, linguistic, cultural, religious and regional discrimination.
2. It was agreed to adopt modalities for giving relief, compensation to those killed and displaced during the conflict (It is presumed that it will cover there people effected by the excesses of both the Army and the Maoists. The immediate need is to persuade the internally displaced persons who should be more than 500,000 in number to return to their homes without fear and in time to vote for CA elections).
3. A High level “Truth & Reconciliation Commission” will be formed to pave the way for reconciliation.
Some Observations
1. The storage of arms agreed to, is not the best of the arrangement, so long as the key & access to the weapons continue to remain with the Maoists. While Maoist cadres without their arms are going to be involved in political activities leading to elections, it is difficult to see how the people can be expected to vote freely with the threat of Maoists returning with arms looming large in the background. Having said this, it should be conceded that this is the best G. P. Koirala could get out of the Maoists in as much as he is dealing with an Army that has not been defeated in the field.
2. The surprise is the number of 20,000 modern arms being made available by the Maoists. Captured arms from the Nepali Army cannot be more than 5 to 6 thousand in number. It remains to be examined how the Maoists obtained such large quantities of weapons. What was the source? Were the arms paid for? What was the modality in bringing the weapons? Were there any external agencies helping them? These are legitimate questions and should be of concern to the Indian Security apparatus who are also dealing with a longer and a more wide spread Maoist insurgency in India.
3. Another surprise is the figure of 35,000 trained cadres given by the Maoists. It was known that the Maoists had gone on a recruitment spree after the ceasefire with the promise that they will be ultimately integrated with the Nepali Army. The effects of this integration will only be seen when the two armies are fully merged.
4. In an agreement like this with so many players having different stakes there will be winners and losers. G.P. stands tall as a result of this agreement – he has been able to retain the monarchy all by himself until the completion of CA elections. He has also stood firm on placing the arms management first before other issues, though he could not succeed in sealing the weapons. As is usual in great leaders, G.P. did not allow anyone below to grow with him and take over the leadership in due course. Two persons, who were very close to him in dealing with the Maoists, are Dr. Shekhar Koirala and Situala and both are far below in the Nepali Congress hierarchy. GP’s health continues to be cause for concern. While the talks were going on beyond midnight, GP retired to bed at 7 P.M and it was Sushil Koirala, the Vice President who represented the Nepali Congress.
The agreement is a personal success for Prachanda and his Maoist party. He has at one stroke emerged as the second most popular politician after GP. During the summit talks on the final day, when GP retired to bed early, it was Prachanda who anchored the meeting that went beyond midnight. He is to address a large rally at Tundikhel on 10th November and it is expected that Kathmandu will be witnessing one of the largest assembly of people. With this agreement and the Maoists poised to enter the government, Prachanda’s participation in the leadership summit being organized by Hindustan Times at Delhi on 17th, 18th November will no longer be a controversy. For the first time he will come into contact with well known world leaders. Initially he had refused to attend on the ground that two of his senior comrades are still in jail in West Bengal and not released. But he has understood that he would gain more in terms of legitimacy of his party and acceptance as a leader in his own right by attending the summit meeting.
Two other leaders of importance – Madhav Nepal of UML and Sher Bahadur Denba have lost their positions considerably. Madhav Nepal gave a dissenting note on the agreement, as he could not get his proposal for referendum on monarchy or proportional representation for the constituent Assembly through. In terms of cadre strength and influence, his party has lost its ground with the simultaneous rise of the Maoists. Most of their cadres are yet to go back to the country side and rebuild their party. But the party has many dedicated leaders and it has the resilience to build up once again. If the party is to join the Maoists in “the republican front” being formed it can survive only if it can play “a second fiddle” to the Maoists. Similarly Deuba and his party will have to merge with GP’s, as otherwise, it will lose its relevance.
In pushing the cut off date to 1990, the Terains have gained. Over 45 lakh people of Indian origin have continued their stateless existence and this decision is a welcome one. One is reminded of t late Gajendra Narain Singh who fearlessly stood for Terains and their rights. This is something that should have come during his life time, but did not. Terai is yet to produce a charismatic leader to lead the Terains. Ram Rajya Prasad Singh would have fitted the bill, but he is ill and his agenda is to unite all the Janajathis and other minorities like the Terains.
Conclusion
Changes in political order in Nepal have never been evolutionary ones. The present agreement if implemented sincerely will bring in a major historic change, where by, the periphery for the first time, is likely to have an equal stake in the governance of the country. The responsibility lies totally with Prachanda and his restless cadres. K. B. Mahara, the Chief of the Maoist talks team said on 2nd Nov. at Nepalgunj that his party’s action is to open the door for reaching communism – via people’s republicanism for which an armed struggle is not mandatory now – Dr. Bhattarai, Prachanda’s deputy has said that their current objective is to reach the transitory substage for a republic and nothing more. Statements like these would cause anxiety to the well wishers of Nepal.
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