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Note no. 441
21-Apr.-2008
NEPAL: Maoist Take over: Coming to grips with realities- Update No: 157
by Dr. S. Chandrasekharan
The final results show that the Maoists would be getting just about half of the 240 seats in the first past the post system and one third under the proportional system bringing them around 100 additional seats with another 26 thrown in as Prime Minister’s choice. In all there is no likelihood of their having a clear majority in the full house.
Thus after initial euphoria, the Maoists must have realised by now that it needs the support of other parties of the seven party alliance and to this extent their efforts to restructure the state entirely in the new dispensation will be restrained. They must have also noted the creditable performance of the Terain parties particularly, the MJF of Upendra Yadav who in offering cooperation will seek its pound of flesh and so will be the case of other parties
Early on, Prachanda declared that there should be a coalition government and that the leftist and republican forces should remain united until a new constitution is drafted where the major political parties should forge a consensus on major issues. Except in agreeing to declare the State a republic, in all other issues there will be problems and the Maoists are unlikely to get their way unless they make some compromises on basic issues.
When the UML decided to withdraw from the cabinet after their rout in the CA elections, Prachanda and Babu Ram Bhattarai met M.K. Nepal and requested him not to withdraw its party from the government. Madhav Nepal responded that the UML will not join unless the Maoists transform themselves to a non military political outfit like the other mainstream political parties UML and Nepali Congress. UML knows more than anyone else how the Maoists with their politico military approach overwhelmed them in the CA Elections.
The same day the Maoist leaders met K.P. Situala, the Home Minister and sought the latter’s cooperation in persuading the Nepali Congress to join the new Government. Prime Minister G.P. Koirala has already told his cabinet ministers not to resign, but one could expect strong opposition within the party. The leaders of the Nepali Congress have just realised that the main reason for their defeat was lack of security of their candidates and the voters in the polling process. This was nothing new and they knew it all along.
The MJF of Upendra Yadav after a creditable showing, had a clear agenda. Yadav wanted the Maoists to make their stance clear on the issues of
- An autonomous Madhesh- ( the Maoist leaders have already indicated that they are against the principle of one Madhesh- one Pradesh and proportional representation which in their view is “communal agenda”
- A federal democratic republic
- Proportional representation of all Madhesis in all sectors of the government
- Empowerment of Madhesis, aboriginal nationalities, Dalits and other marginalised groups.
- Perhaps the most important and sensitive from the Maoists point of view was the MJF’s
stand that the inter party relations will be affected, if the Maoists continue their relationship with international communist platforms like the RIM and the CCOMPOSA. The latter relates to the grouping of Maoist Parties of South Asia. Maoist reaction/response to this demand will be interesting for all the mainstream democratic parties of the South Asian region.
The immediate attention of the Maoists will be a two-track one- a political consensus ( after all the threats, intimidation and violence against other parties) and more importantly to restore some improvement in the battered economy. As of now in Kathmandu is short of power ( ten hours of load shedding everyday in Kathmandu, shortage and high price of fuel ( last time they opposed and brought Kathmandu to a standstill when fuel prices were raised and it has to be done now with prices in the international market going to 115 $ to a barrel), shortage of all essential commodities. There is also the danger of businessmen stashing their wealth away to other countries.
Both Prachanda and Baburam Bhattarai wasted no time in meeting the businessmen under the aegis of FNCC on 16th April to assuage them and promised them all support and a business friendly government. The business leaders wanted assurances from the Maoist leadership of an investment friendly environment, maximisation of profit, tax reforms, new flexible labour laws and a positive industrial policy. In fact what the businessmen wanted was that the Maoists should climb down from Mao Ze Dong to Deng Hsiao Ping. The present Chinese model is already there with another similar one in Vietnam, the party could while keeping a firm hold on the party leadership would let liberalisation move ahead.
Both the educational and the health institutions are very apprehensive of the Maoists who in the past had opposed private institutions in both these sectors. Prachanda has promised private-public partnership will be encouraged in health and educations sectors. Bhattarai has promised to remove whatever hurdles that may arise in the private sector.
In the present environment of shortage of essential goods Indian support and help will be necessary. It is no wonder that the Indian Ambassador met twice after the elections at the latter’s residence and while explaining their position on various developments, there would have been a request for continued assistance in the supply of all essential goods which at any rate cannot come from China.
But what troubles me is the silence of Indian foreign ministry as what exactly transpired and what was requested. This is essential for the people of India to know for this reason, that Nepal in its relations with India has always got away with “public humiliation and private appeasement.” For example see the threat of Prachanda to the Press when he said on the same day - I quote “If the supply of consumer and other essential items from India is affected at this crucial period, then it would have long term impact on Nepal-India relationship.” There is an implied threat as well as an admission that Indian support is necessary.
It is therefore essential for India to treat Nepal not as a backyard but as a sovereign independent country and in return would expect Nepal to treat it with respect when public utterances are made on India. Often one hears from policy makers and analysts that the neighbouring countries should take into account Indian security and Indian interests in formulating their policies. I would say that it is for the Indian policy makers to take care of Indian interests and Indian security and not to expect the neighbouring countries to take care of Indian interests.
Finally, there is no doubt that an overwhelming majority of the members of the constituent assembly would vote for a republic at the first opportunity though not on the first day. But there could be some grace. It was sad to see Prachanda in his Nepal Television yesterday saying that he would meet the King to persuade him to step down gracefully which is correct and graceful but then added that if the King does not, he ( the King) would meet the fate of monarchs in history who were beheaded or forced to flee. This was unkind!
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