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Note no. 442
29-Apr.-2008
Time Has Come For Fresh Indian Initiative in Sri Lanka – Update No. 138
Col R Hariharan (retd.)
The Tamil Nadu state assembly resolution calling upon the Centre to take steps to bring peace in Sri Lanka last Wednesday, April 24, merits follow up action by all those who aspire for resolving the Sri Lanka Tamil issue peacefully. The resolution perhaps for the first time reflects the desire of Tamils everywhere for India to take a more proactive role in Sri Lanka in the interest of all stakeholders – people of India and Sri Lanka, Sri Lanka Tamil Diaspora and the international community. Its constructive tone for finding a peaceful resolution of the problem, rather than the polemical Tamil political rhetoric adopted in the past, is too good to be trivialised.
Coincidentally, the resolution was passed when the Eelam War-4 hit the hottest point of combat at Muhamalai causing heavy casualties on both sides. With over 7000 lives already lost since December 2005 in the endless conflict, civil society in India and Sri Lanka jaded by failure to be effective in the past should now renew their efforts to use the small opening provided by the TN assembly resolution to turn it into a productive opportunity.
The resolution, briefly worded perhaps for political reasons, by itself does not indicate possible outcome. However, Chief Minister Karunanidhi's eloquent speech on the occasion gives sufficient indications for all stakeholders on the subtle changes taking place in Tamil Nadu political perceptions on the subject.
It is significant that in his speech Karunanidhi had defended India's (Centre's) policy on Sri Lanka. This sends a message to the Tamil protagonists of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) who had been counting on his support to the LTTE war. His pointed reference to the lack of unity among Tamils and criticism of the killing of Tamil leaders like A Amirthalingam without naming the LTTE makes it clear that he does not equate the LTTE war with the struggle of Tamils for autonomy. And as a corollary it raises a big question mark on the LTTE claims as the sole representative of Tamils.
At the same time his lament for the failure of Tamils to unite and achieve success as the Maoists in Nepal have done indicates that his heart supports the Tamil Eelam. But his head seems to have dictated that it was not pragmatic. His pragmatism in approach is relevant because he is perhaps one Tamil leader who is widely respected by Tamils (including politicians and Tamil Diaspora) everywhere and he has the potential to evolve a Tamil consensus on the subject. His speech has given adequate indications for them to take positive follow up action in three directions –persuade India for active involvement, persuade Sri Lanka and the LTTE to cease their quest for a military solution, and take measures for initiating a holistic and structured approach to find a peaceful resolution of the Tamil quest for autonomy without threatening Sri Lanka's sovereignty.
Stakeholders' response
Speculating on the stakeholders' response to the resolution is risky. Many observers of the scene would be tempted to dismiss it as a political ploy of the Chief Minister to prevent the Patali Makka Katchi (PMK) leader Dr Ramadoss and Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazagham (MDMK) leader Vaiko from cashing in on the Sri Lanka Tamil issue in the local political scene. However, this issue has ceased to be a hot 'vote catcher' issue in Tamil Nadu for sometime now. Moreover, the war in Sri Lanka is going on too long to be ignored and any opportunity to resolve it should not be dismissed on cynical considerations. And the resolution offers one such opportunity.
Perhaps, Delhi has got its own internal dissonance on Sri Lanka within the government and the ruling coalition. At present, Tamil Nadu has a disproportionately large clout at the Centre and within the ruling and opposition coalitions. It is time for Tamil lawmakers in Delhi to close their ranks on this issue and demand a fresh Indian initiative in Sri Lanka. Otherwise Tamil public at large are unlikely to forgive them.
As far as Sri Lanka is considered, its adroit President Rajapaksa by now must have understood that the end of the tunnel was still not visible despite the huge cost of lives resources paid in the war so far. It should be equally clear that a fresh political initiative with India at the helm (rather than Norway) could possibly be a better way of resolving the issue. If nothing else, it would save a few billion dollars down the drain and a few thousand lives, while presenting a possibility of success, than pursuing a purely military option.
The international community (a.k.a. four co-chairs in Sri Lanka context) is perhaps wiser now of the limitations of Norwegian mediation and their own actions, long on rhetoric and short on results. Perhaps they should consider asking India to don the mantle for a change to give a lease of life to their well meaning efforts in Sri Lanka.
It is too tempting to dismiss the LTTE as irrelevant in any peace process. However, it will continue to be an important denominator in the issue. At the risk of being branded as the LTTE's 'military guru' as some wise Sri Lanka columnist had done, I can say the LTTE has enough brains to know that the current war is reaching a point of no return. Inflicting more body counts or carrying out more suicide bombings – as the Tanil Nadu resolution was greeted – is not going to resolve the misery of millions of Tamils. It is time for the LTTE to show "Vivekam" (wisdom with discretion) in addition to its much touted "Veeram" (valour) because the war is going beyond the military domain.
The LTTE is not known to listen to external advice. I can only hope that it reads this and makes a pragmatic reassessment of the situation as the Kalaignar (Karunanidhi) has done. And that has only added to his stature. Will the LTTE do it? That is an answer its supporters and admirers should demand. There is no time to be lost anymore.
(Col. R Hariharan, a retired Military Intelligence specialist on South Asia, served as the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90.He is associated with the South Asia Analysis Group and the Chennai Centre for China Studies. E-mail: colhari@yahoo.com)
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