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Note no. 456
15-July-2008
NEPAL: Way Cleared for a Maoist Government: Update No. 164
By Dr. S. Chandrasekharan
On July 13, the Constituent Assembly formally passed the fifth amendment to the interim constitution thus paving the way for a Maoist Government led by Prachanda.
For the last two months, the country was without a head of state and the assembly proceedings were physically prevented by the Madhesi Parties who were insisting on the inclusion in the amendment of the recognition of “one Madhes- on State” and proportional representation in the army as agreed to by the government on February 28 this year. Prime Minister personally intervened and persuaded the Madhesi groups not to hold up the proceedings though the latter have since been boycotting the sessions.
The fifth amendment was passed by 442 members present with the Madhesi representatives boycotting the sessions. This clears the way for having a President, Vice President, Prime minister and a chairperson for the Constituent Assembly.
If no consensus is arrived at, the President, the Vice President, the Prime minister and the CA chairperson could be elected by a simple majority. The Prime minister can be removed by a simple majority while for the President and the Vice President, a two thirds majority will be necessary.
The proposal of the government ( actually the Nepali Congress) to have an opposition member in the National Defence Council was rejected by the assembly by 337 votes to 124. In this, the UML and People’s Front voted with the Maoists while the Nepali Congress was supported by CPN (ML), Nepal Workers & Peasants Party, Rashtriya Janasakthi Party and RPP Nepal among others.
The amendment also ended the special mention of the seven parties in the constitution. It also included the formation of a special committee for integration and rehabilitation of Maoist combatants and management of their arms within six months.
Two concerns of the Madhesis were included in the amendment though this did not appease the Madhesi groups to return to the assembly. These were A. “pledging” autonomous status to all provinces as desired by the people from different communities including the Madhesis. B. Members of the Nepal Army will be made national in character and inclusive in nature.
The Madhesi groups which are still boycotting the sessions include Madhesi People’s Rights Forum, TMDP, the Sadhbhavana Party and the Dalit Janajathi Party.
The Central Secretariat of the Maoists took place at Dhulikhel on 12the July, a day prior to the CA meeting that passed the fifth amendment. The intention of the Maoists on the future course of action was made clear at the end of the meeting.
They will hold a fresh series of dialogues with other parties on power sharing and if they fail in the next ten days they will go ahead and take decisions through the constituent assembly.
They also made it clear that the Nepali Congress will not get either the post of the President or the Prime minister while the post of the Prime minister will not be available to the UML or the MPRF ( Madhesi People’s Rights Forum). This would mean that while they would have the Prime ministership, the possibility of leaving Presidentship for the UML is not ruled out.
On the specific issue of the President, they said that they would try to reach a consensus on President from among non political common individuals. It could be a former judge, a Madhesi or a janajathi.
We thus see a beginning of a political realignment of the parties in Nepal and the Maoists appear to embarking on a move to consolidate the leftist groups. This has been going on for some time and the vote of the UML in aligning itself with the Maoists on the issue of the membership of the National Security Council is significant.
On 10th of July, Prachanda made another significant statement confirming this position that they would be leading not only the government but also Nepal’s communist movement. He added that a large number of fringe parties would join the Maoists once they form the government.
Though Prachanda still talks of consensus and unity of the three parties, it looks that he would go for decisions through the constituent assembly as mentioned earlier and in this he will seek the support of the UML with some give and take. Thus, progressively, the UML is likely to lose its position as a ‘ pre eminent’ one.
There are allegations that the UML is also setting up the Tharus against the Madhesi groups. Life in Terai was brought to a standstill on 10th July when 24 organisations of the indigenous people including the Tharu welfare council of Terai called for a strike against the demand of “one madhes one pradhesh.” Thus the UML is losing what little influence they had in the Madhes. Two days ago, Jhala Nath Khanal, their General Secretary made an astonishing statement that his party was kept in the dark when the government concluded the 8 point agreement on February 28 with the Madhesi groups. He has not been told perhaps that his predecessor was present along with Prachanda when the deal was signed by Prime Minister G.P. Koirala.
The Nepali Congress having realised that it is getting isolated under the new dispensation, is making its own bid to woo the Madhesi groups. G.P. Koirala met the Madhesi groups on 11th July and of the three issues discussed, besides the boycott were the issues relating to alliance between the Nepali Congress and the Madhesi parties and on the future government. The Madhesi leaders said that they had a sympathetic hearing on their problems from the Prime minister.
A few months ago in some forum Baburam Bhattarai had said that ultimately there will only be two political groupings in Nepal- one, the leftists led by them and the other the centrist and rightist groups. They seem to be certainly working towards that goal.
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