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Paper no. 1611
14. 11. 2005
MYANMAR: Making capital moves!
by C. S. Kuppuswamy
Introduction
Myanmar has not been much in the news since July 2005, when it gave up its turn for the rotating chairmanship of ASEAN, under pressure from US and the European Union to boycott such meetings, if chaired by Myanmar. Some analysts are of the view that though Myanmar made it look like it was reluctant to relinquish its turn, that is what the military junta wanted – to be away from the pressure and world’s attention and carry on with the reforms at their own pace and not get involved in any infrastructural projects for hosting the ASEAN meetings. Now Myanmar is again in the news for shifting its capital from Yangon (Rangoon) to Pyinmana, 320 km north of Rangoon.
Pyinmana (The new Capital).
Though work on construction of the new capital at Pyinmana has been going for some years, the project called “Pyinmanar Special Region Development Project” gained momentum and has been in full swing for the last 12 months. It is on the road to Mandalay in a rural area amid mountains which has been cleared and leveled by forced labour from nearby locations. Pyinmana is basically a timber town, with a forestry and agriculture school nearby. The construction sites are about 30 km away, virtually on all sides of the town. New six lane roads have also been constructed leading to the construction sites though only military vehicles are plying at present on this road.
The new complex measuring 10 square kilometers will accommodate the government offices, homes for military leaders, diplomatic quarters, a parliamentary building, an airport, a golf course and accommodation for bureaucrats. This is being fashioned as a “command and control structure”. The shifting of the capital began on Sunday the 6th November, 2005. The government servants were given little warning and moved without their families as no family accommodation has been constructed till date. A media report indicates that the new capital will be named “Yan Lon” which means “secure from strife” similar to “Yan Gon” (the official name for Rangoon) meaning “end of strife.
There are various theories and analyses for shifting the capital from Rangoon to Pyinmana. Some of these are:
The official reason as given by the Information Minister Brigadier General Kyaw Hasn is “It is centrally located, and has quick access to all parts of the country”.
It is believed that the military junta is worried about foreign invasion (potentially by the US) especially after the regime change effected in Afghanistan and Iraq. The junta is apprehensive of being close to a port, more so with a weak naval force as compared to its army.
The new capital is centrally located and will help the administration exercise better control over the ethnic tribes such as the Shans, Chins and the Karens in the border areas.
Another theory is that like the old Burmese Kings, the military rulers are superstitious and the move is on the advice of the soothsayers. Even the date and time of the move (November 6 at 6 AM) has been so decided as the number six is considered auspicious in some Asian societies.
National Convention
The Myanmar Government has indicated that, the National Convention for drafting a new constitution, suspended in March this year, will be reconvened from 05 December 2005. The National convention is the first of the seven steps in the “road map” to democracy initiated by the deposed Prime Minister Khin Nyunt. National League for Democracy (NLD) led by Aung San Suu Kyi and some ethnic tribes have boycotted this convention as they have virtually no say in the proceedings totally manipulated by the military regime.
Problems with ILO
The ILO has indicted Myanmar in its global report on forced labour by referring to the “extreme case of forced labour extracted by the military in Myanmar (Burma)”. The ILO staff in Myanmar have received a number of threats, that their life is in peril, if they do not desist from interfering in the internal affairs of the country.
Media reports indicate that Myanmar has withdrawn from the ILO in October 2005 following the ILO report on forced labour. The US government has supported the ILO for its efforts in giving a true picture of the human rights record of Myanmar. While regretting the decision of Myanmar, the ILO representative indicated that a notice period of two years will be available for the Myanmar government to change its decision, but once the notice period expires the decision becomes irreversible. Once Myanmar opts out, the ILO will press upon its other members for increased sanctions.
Drugs Production
Myanmar is the world’s second largest opium grower behind Afghanistan. As per a Radio Australia report, a United Nations survey has found Burma’s opium production and cultivation is continuing to decline but the rural population is suffering because of a lack of alternative crops. The UN’s office on Drugs and Crime (UNDOC) annual opium survey, estimates cultivation fell by 26 % in 2005 and production dropped 16 % to 312 tonnes. While the data was largely positive there were still some concerns as there is need for food assistance and food crops for farmers to be able to survive.
Regime Change
An Inter Press Service report in the end of October 2005, states that the military ruler, General Than Shwe may step down and pass on the baton to General Thura Shwe Mann. General Than Shwe’s continued indifferent health gives credence to this report. The Senior General, aged 75, is a diabetic and suffers from hypertension and is believed to have had a mild stroke six months ago. Some analysts are of the view that even if he steps down from the chairmanship of the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), he will continue to be the supreme commander of the army. Even if the new crop of generals takes over the reins, one cannot hope for any change in the attitude of the military junta towards political reforms.
Relations with India
On 17 October, 2005, at the Home Secretary level talks held in Yangon, India and Myanmar agreed to hold joint interrogation of prisoners arrested on charges of drugs and arms smuggling for insurgency related activities. Myanmar has agreed to intensify action and punish such offenders if found on Myanmarese soil. An Indian spokesman said that this agreement is a significant boost to the bilateral ties. During this meeting the status of the various infrastructure projects (undertaken by India) in Myanmar, particularly in road and power sectors, was reviewed.
In June-July 2005, police in Mizoram (India), claimed to have destroyed one of the largest Myanmarese rebel (Chin National Front) base in the jungles of Mizoram and had also captured arms looted by Chin Integration Army from Myanmar Army. Myanmar should be happy with this action by India and reciprocate in taking action against the Indian rebels known to have taken refuge in Sagaing Division of Myanmar.
The visit of the Indian Army Chief in October, 2005, as the leader of a goodwill delegation and the proposed visit of the Naval Chief to Myanmar will definitely be a boost to the military to military relations of the two countries.
Conclusion
In Indian History one finds a parallel when Tughlak shifted the capital from Delhi to Daulatabad for some similar weird reasons. Shifting of the Myanmar capital from Yangon (Rangoon) to Pyinmana will go down in history as yet another unwise move of a country’s capital.
The idea of locating the capital away from the coastal area due to strategic reasons does not hold water, as any foreign attack will primarily begin with an air strike and to pin point this location from air needs no major effort. However even the idea of a foreign invasion, especially from US, is rather far-fetched.
A BBC news report indicates that foreign and UN Embassies have been told that there are currently no plans to accommodate them in the new capital. This shows how secretive the junta wants to be and opt for further isolation from the rest of the world.
The National Convention is convened again and again only to be suspended without any significant progress even when there is no major opposition to stall the process. Thus even the drafting of the new constitution, as a first step in the road map to democracy, may go on indefinitely, and help the military junta to maintain the status quo.
There have been rumours of changes at the top level a few months before also, which were denied by the government. As of now, whichever General takes over as Chairman of the SPDC, the chances, for early release of Aung San Suu Kyi or for democratic reforms to be implemented, are bleak.
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