Sri Lanka: A Heavy Price for Over-Confidence- International Terrorism Monitor- Paper No. 139

SRI LANKA: A HEAVY PRICE FOR OVER-CONFIDENCE - INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR--PAPER NO.139

By B.Raman

The Sri Lankan Armed Forces have paid a heavy price for their over-confidence. Their offensive---which was in blatant violation of the cease-fire agreement of February,2002-- in the Muhamalai area near Jaffna has been beaten back by the cadres of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), commanded by Col.Theepan, the LTTE's Special Commander, on October 11,2006, inflicting the heaviest casualties the Sri Lankan military has suffered since the cease-fire agreement.

2. As is its wont, the Sri Lankan Government initially tried to play down the fatalities suffered by it and exaggerate the fatalities inflicted by it on the LTTE. Subsequently, it had to admit that at least 129 of its soldiers were killed after the LTTE disseminated pictures of the dead bodies of the soldiers killed, handed over 74 dead bodies to the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) and published the identifying particulars of the Sri Lankan military personnel killed.

3. While the Government has reportedly admitted that 129 of its soldiers were killed, independent reports say that the number of Sri Lankan fatalities might increase to 200 when many of the over 200 seriously injured succumb to their injuries.

4. The Government continues to exaggerate the fatalities inflicted by its military on the LTTE. It has been claiming that it killed nearly 200 LTTE cadres, but independent reports put the number of fatalities suffered by the LTTE at not more than 30.

5. The serious reverse suffered by the military---despite the ruthless use of the Air Force, with some of the air strikes manned by Ukrainian pilots--- has been attributed by reliable sources in the Sri Lankan Police in whose judgement I have confidence to the following reasons:

Over-confidence of the Sri Lankan Army after the series of successes earlier scored by it in the Eastern Province.
The lack of support of Karuna and his men. Karuna, the legendary LTTE commander in the Batticaloa area of the Eastern Province, and many of his men---all sons of the Eastern soil-- had deserted from the LTTE in March,2004, following differences with Prabhakaran, the LTTE leader, over his perceived discriminatory attitude to the Eastern Tamils. They have been helping the Sri Lankan Army and intelligence since then. The police sources say that Karuna and his men contributed considerably to the victories scored by the Sri Lankan Army in the Eastern Province. But in the Muhamalai area in the North, the Sri Lankan Army had to fight on its own without any major help from Karuna and his men and it did very badly. The LTTE's intelligence, which was poor in the Eastern Province, functioned better in the North.
Over-hasty launching of the offensive by the Army without adequate preparations. This was due to the over-anxiety of President Mahinda Rajapakse and his hardline advisers to re-capture from the LTTE some of the territoiry which has been under its control in the North ever since the cease-fire accord was signed, before the forthcoming peace talks in Switzerland. The plan of Mr.Rajapakse and his advisers to force a dictated peace on a badly-bruised LTTE has misfired as a result of the disastrous set-back suffered by the military in its latest offensive.

6. The police sources say that there has been unhappiness in the lower ranks of the army over their being pushed into a disastrous offensive without adequate planning and preparations. Some senior Army officers have been blaming Mr.Rajapakse and his two brothers, who act as his advisers, for hastily pushing them into this disastrous venture.

7.The LTTE----after a long series of reverses--- has scored a morale-boosting victory. Its victory is all the more creditable since its cadres fought ferociously without protection from the ruthless air strikes of the Sri Lankan Air Force.

8. The victory has added to the LTTE's holdings of arms and ammunition. According to the LTTE's account, it captured 16 multi-purpose machine guns, four rocket-propelled grenade launchers, one grenade launcher, one light anti-tank weapon, 98 assault rifles and a large quantity of ammunition.

9.In an attempt to recover some of the lost face, the Sri Lankan Army, with air support, has reportedly launched a new offensive in the Amparai area of the Eastern Province and the Air Force has launched a severe bombing of the Vanni area in the North.

10. While the LTTE has been for the present focussing on the conventional operations, it has been furiously trying for a covert action to destroy the Sri Lankan Air Force planes on the ground. If it succeeds in that, that could end the advantages presently enjoyed by the Army on the ground due to the LTTE's lack of anti-aircraft capability.

(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: itschen36@gmail.com )