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Paper no. 2574
31-Jan.-2008
MYANMAR: Sandwiched between China & India and gaining from both
By C. S. Kuppuswamy
Myanmar which has common boundaries with both China in the east and India in the west is crucial to both these nations in pursuance of their strategic, security, military and economic interests. Myanmar is exploiting this situation and is pitting one against the other for deriving maximum benefit from both. Myanmar, despite being impoverished by its isolationist policies and sanctions of the west, is wooed by the neighbouring countries, for its mineral wealth, energy resources (oil) and timber.
Bilateral Relations
Myanmar was the first country to recognise the Peoples Republic of China (PRC) in 1949. China and Myanmar share a border of more than 2000 km. Diplomatic relations between these two nations were established in 1950 and the first border treaty was signed in 1960. Myanmar has all along been supporting the “one China” policy. Save for some minor irritants, the relations between the two nations have been cordial.
The uprising of the 1988 in Myanmar and the military rule under the new junta changed the geopolitical situation of the region. As Myanmar was further isolated, China grabbed the opportunity to establish a closer relationship with the generals. Through a trade agreement in 1988 and massive arms supplies in 1989 and 1994, China became the principal ally of this pariah nation and continues to be regarded so. China has baled out Myanmar through a veto every time the UN tried to pass a resolution against this nation for violation of human rights and want of political reforms.
Myanmar was part of India as a British colony since 1886. There was large scale migration of Indians to Myanmar, which improved the trade relations between the two nations besides the age old social and cultural links. Both were members of the Non Aligned Movement (NAM). However the relations between the two nations soured since 1962 when the military regime took over and there was a large scale expulsion of Indians from Myanmar. The sympathy of the Indian government to the pro-democracy movement in 1988 further strained the relations.
From 1993, when India reversed its stand with a more realistic and pragmatic policy, the relations are on the upswing. With the visit of Maung Aye, Vice-Chairman, SPDC, in 2000 and the visit of Senior General Than Shwe, Chairman, SPDC in 2004 to India, there has been all round progress in political, military and economic relations.
India has both a land border (1640 km) and a long maritime boundary with Myanmar in the Andaman Sea and the Bay of Bengal. The boundary agreement with India was signed in 1967. The maritime boundary between the two countries was defined by a maritime delimitation agreement in 1986.
Strategy and Security
China is involved overtly and covertly in reducing the influence of India in the Asian region through a strategy which the analysts have named differently as “containment”, “encirclement”, “the string of pearls”, etc. In pursuance of this aim it has improved relations with all of India’s neighbours, Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka. In this, Myanmar fits in beautifully with a long land and maritime boundary with India.
A friendly Myanmar gives China the access to Indian Ocean which is vital and also affords control over the Malacca Straits which is the main route for oil shipments.
The non traditional security concerns of China in relation to Myanmar are the organized transnational crime, flow of drugs, cross border human trafficking and a growing HIV/AIDS epidemic. Yunnan province is the worst affected by these concerns.
The reasons for the strategic importance of Myanmar to India are:
- Myanmar is located at the tri junction of East Asia, South Asia and South East Asia
- Myanmar is the second largest of India’s neighbours and the largest on the Eastern flank.
- Myanmar provides the Eastern littoral of the Bay of Bengal. An unfriendly Myanmar hosting foreign naval presence would pose a threat to Indian security.
- Myanmar has a big border with China in the north contiguous with the Sino-Indian disputed border which has many implications.
The major security concerns of India with respect to Myanmar are:
- Insurgency in the North Eastern States of India – Some of the insurgent groups have established camps in Myanmar and operate from Myanmarese territory
- Smuggling of arms (by both land and sea)
- Drug trafficking and narco-terrorism
- Illegal immigration from Yunnan into Northern Myanmar and association of Chinese workers in road construction activities
Military Relations
The military collaboration between China and Myanmar picked up after the international ban following the 1988 pro-democracy uprising. By the massive arms sales agreement with China in 1990 and 1994, Myanmar enlarged its military from 186,000 to about 400,000. Currently it has the second largest army in SE Asia, second only to Vietnam.
By 2003, China had supplied US $ 1 to 1.2 billion worth of weapons and other military hardware to Myanmar. The Myanmar military inventory today includes Chinese origin tanks, fighters, trainers and transport aircraft, radars and communication equipment, surface to surface and surface to air missiles, rocket launchers and naval ships.
China has been engaged in building and upgrading the road and rail network system from Yunnan in South China to several parts along the Myanmar coast in the Bay of Bengal. China is providing major assistance in the modernization of naval facilities at Akyab (Sittwe), Mergui, Hanggyi Islands and Great Coco Islands. There are also reports to indicate that China and Myanmar have an intelligence sharing agreement regarding India’s force deployment in the North East and Bay of Bengal.
The military cooperation between India and Myanmar pales in comparison to the cooperation between China and Myanmar. However, Myanmar is also facing problems with rather obsolete and out dated Chinese weapons and is keen to have an alternate source. In that India has been found useful.
India and Myanmar conducted joint military operations as early as in 1995 against some North Eastern insurgent organizations. Such operations continue to take place on and off.
There has been an exchange of high level visits of the service chiefs. In 2005-06 all the three Indian Chiefs had visited Myanmar. Since 2003 there have been joint maneuvers with the Myanmar Navy. There have been a number of port calls by the Indian Navy and a few by the Myanmar Navy.
According to media reports apart from two Islander surveillance aircrafts, India is also transferring arms, including 105 mm light artillery guns and T-55 tanks to Myanmar. India has offered to provide battle field training to soldiers and supply uniforms. India has also leased a helicopter squadron and offered help in maintaining Russian military equipment with the Myanmar army.
Economic Interests
China’s interest in Myanmar is primarily economic with a view to extract the natural resources particularly oil and gas for the development of its western provinces, especially Yunnan and Sichuan. In this strategy, the ADB sponsored “Greater Mekong Sub region (GMS)” project to integrate the economies of the countries/regions involved (which include Thailand, China’s Yunnan Province and Myanmar) has come in handy for China. Improvement of infrastructure in Myanmar is essential for this project to succeed. China is helping Myanmar in improving its infrastructure and transportation net works in Northern Myanmar.
Larry Jagan writes that “Chinese businesses and enterprises have boosted their investment in Lashio, Mandalay and Muse. Even in Yangon Chinese business has expanded enormously. The Chinese are involved in the building of a Special Tax-free Export Zone around the port of Yangon” (AT on line 13 June, 2007). He adds that Myanmar has also become a strategic transit point for goods produced in southern China to markets in South Asia. There are also reports to indicate that a highway linking Bangladesh, Myanmar and China is being constructed for enhancing cooperation among the eastern countries.
China’s Natural Development Reform Commission approved plans in April 2006 to build a pipeline that would carry China’s Middle East oil from a deep water port off Sittwe across Myanmar to Yunnan. This would give China an alternative route from the Malacca Straits, on which it depends for delivering its oil from the Middle East (NY Times November 16, 2006).
China is the major beneficiary of the oil and gas resources of Myanmar. To the utter dismay of India, an MoU signed between China and Myanmar on March 14, 2007, indicates that China will get the entire stock from A-1 and A-3 blocks in the Rakhine offshore area. In return it will pay an annual transit fee of $ 150 million for 30 years for the pipeline’s 990 km stretch in Myanmar.
According to the Chinese government statistics, Myanmar-China trade worth US $ 13.7 million in 1989 has risen to almost US $ 1.2 billion in 2004 with the trade surplus heavily in favour of China. 800 Chinese projects worth a total of $ 2.1 million are there in Myanmar.
Myanmar is India’s gateway to ASEAN as it is the only country of this grouping which has a land and maritime boundary with India. With India becoming a summit level partner of ASEAN and a member of the East Asia Summit improved relations with Myanmar is very essential. The large oil and gas resources available in Myanmar and the viability of transportation by a pipe line to India is another prime consideration.
Bilateral trade has expanded significantly from US $ 12.4 million in 1980-81 to 425 million in 2004-05. India’s imports from Myanmar are primarily agricultural and forest based products (especially beans and pulses) and main exports to Myanmar are primary and semi finished steel and pharmaceuticals. The balance of trade is heavily in favour of Myanmar.
The 160 km India-Myanmar Friendship road on Myanmarese territory from Tamu to Kalemyo to Kalewa was completed by Indian Border Roads Organisation in 2001 and will also be maintained by India till March 2008.
India is involved in the India-Myanmar-Thailand trilateral highway project.
Other projects at various stages of completion include construction of Rhi-Tidim and Rhi-Falam road sections in Myanmar, the Kaladan Multimodal Transport Project and the Tamanthi Hydro-Electric Power project. India has also offered to improve its rail links such as the Yangon-Mandalay sector as well as connecting them to rail links on the eastern side.
Two Indian companies hold 30 % stakes in the exploration and production of gas in Myanmar’s A-1 and A-3 off shore blocks in Rakhine state. There is also a proposal to bring gas through a 1575 km pipeline from Sittwe port in Myanmar through Aizwal-Silchar-Guwahati-Siliguri to Gaya (Bihar).
Some Analysts’ comments
“Chinese Strategists see Myanmar occupying the same place in the Chinese calculus of deterrence vis-à-vis India in South –South East Asia that Pakistan does in South-South West Asia” - J. Mohan Malik (Pioneer 19 December 2001).
“China’s policy in South East Asia is a radical departure from all of prior history. It is a policy of intervention and naval adventurism seeking the subservience of mainland South East Asia to Chinese national interests. Accordingly China patronises autocracies in Burma and Vietnam” – Stephen B.Young and Arthur Waldron (FEER June 6, 2002).
“Positioned between rival powers India and China, both nations view Burma as the ideal buffer state to balance the power of the other” – Burma Campaign UK August 2005.
“China is also redressing the Indian Ocean balance directly through the ‘string of pearls’ strategy. In recent years, Beijing has developed port facilities in Chittagong (Bangladesh), Sittwe (Myanmar) and Gwadar (Pakistan). China has launched each of these developments through bilateral trade promotion agreements under which it pays most of the costs of dredging deep water ports, but it is also an element of a naval balancing strategy, as demonstrated by a Chinese-run radar station on Burma’s Coco Islands and the development of naval facilities in the Gwadar ports”.- Christopher Griffin in ASIAN OUTLOOK , AEI on line September 7, 2006.
“Myanmar exemplifies the difficult balance between competition and cooperation between China and India over oil and gas resources in third countries. India’s and China’s proximity to Myanmar and the stakes of both countries in Burmese gas production, present a promising opportunity for pipeline gas imports, in line with the plans of both countries to enhance energy security by diversifying fuel-supply sources”-Ashlid Kolas, International Peace Research Institute, Oslo (Strategic Analysis July 2007).
Conclusion
Both China and India (to a greater extent) have been under intense pressure to influence Myanmar for releasing the political prisoners and ushering in democratic reforms. Neither of these countries would like to take a lead in this connection as by that the other nation will be getting a leeway for extracting Myanmar’s natural resources, especially oil and gas.
China has been pursuing an ambitious strategy of using regional forums to consolidate its status as the leading power in the region and to stifle the efforts of India to surge ahead.. China’s efforts to thwart the entry of India into the East Asia Summit, its predominant role in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, heavy lobbying against India in ASEAN, and gaining an observer status in SAARC, have all proved this point in abundant measure.
When it comes to Myanmar, China will continue to view India with caution and preempt Indian moves, despite considerable improvement in bilateral relations and the bonhomie witnessed during the Indian Prime Minister’s visit to Beijing in January 2008.
From India’s point of view, there is a need for further improving the relations with Myanmar and engaging the junta in a constructive manner to counter the aggressive designs of China. However it does not appear to be a panic situation to increase the stakes at an enormous cost without commensurate results. India must concentrate on areas where it has an edge over China. Myanmar also needs India to avoid total dependence on China.
Rivalry between China and India has made Myanmar more demanding and helps in getting better deals from the higher bidder. Myanmar will continue playing this game till China and India get together on issues of common interest.
If Myanmar is emboldened to carry on business as usual, in spite of the best efforts of the Western nations and the UN to indict Myanmar on the September 2007 crackdown, it is mainly due to the continued support of China and India, though in different ways.
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