Paper no. 2601

26-Feb.-2008

PAKISTAN: IMPERATIVES FOR UNITED STATES TO RECALIBRATE POLICIES 

By Dr. Subhash Kapila 

The following contextual papers by the Author would provide the relevant backdrop:

Introductory Observations 

In the sixty years of Pakistan’s existence the United States in terms of foreign policy formulations and attitudinal inclinations has not only invested heavily in Pakistan but could be said to have over-invested, albeit, with diminishing returns. 

The distinguishing features of United States foreign policy towards Pakistan were to let its strategic imperatives over-ride the political imperatives to facilitate the emergence of its South Asian ally as a stable and democratic country. United States seemed to favor in existence in Pakistan military regimes of the Pakistan Army.  This has continued unabated. 

Post 9/11 this distinguishing trend was further reinforced by the United States in over-investing in Musharraf-centric policies rather than Pakistan-centric policies in synchronization with Pakistani peoples aspirations. 

By a fortuitous combination of political and media pressures within the United States and a mass political upsurge within Pakistan against General Musharraf and Pakistan Army rule since the defining moments of March 09, 2007 the United States was left with no options but to pressurize General Musharraf to conduct free and fair General Elections which took place on February 18, 2008. 

However, the United States was permissive enough to allow General Musharraf to position himself as President of Pakistan by an unconstitutional election by the outgoing National Assembly and provincial assemblies.  He was also allowed to sack the entire Supreme Court judiciary when in November 2007 it ruled against the General’s illegal political manoenvres. 

The General Elections of February 18, 2008 in terms of results have brought unintended consequences both for General Musharraf and United States strategic and political influence in Pakistan. 

The Pakistani people through their ballot on February 18, 2008 General Elections have virtually  rejected General Musharraf’s continuance in power outrightly both at the national level and the provincial level. 

The electoral verdict of the Pakistani people is also a serious reverse for United States policies in Pakistan.  In a free and fair vote the Pakistani people not only rejected General Musharraf but also rejected Untied State's Pakistan policies. 

Both General Musharraf and the United States, (in terms of Musharraf-centric policies) had this coming to them.  Some excerpts from the Authors last referred paper in March 2007, need to be reproduced: 

  • "Historically, in the case of military regimes in Pakistan, this is the first time that a Chief Justice of Pakistan has defied the dictates of the Pakistani Army Chief who sought to confront him in uniform and remove him unconstitutionally.”
  • “What we are witnessing in Pakistan today in an “Institutional confrontation” between the Pakistan Army and the judiciary.”
  • “It has touched a raw nerve in Pakistan and is likely to snowball into a major confrontation where the masses are in favor of the Chief Justice and the legal fraternity.”
  • “This spark has all the potential to light up the tinderbox of suppressed public outrage against the Army rule in Pakistan.”

The spate of developments and events in Pakistan since March 2007 are now history. 

But as inevitable in foreign policy formulations and political affairs some seem always bent on repeating history. 

General Musharraf has not gracefully accepted the electoral verdict and has embarked on divisive political intrigues to prevent the two major victorious parties to form a coalition government. 

The United States Administration at all levels in their post-electoral verdict statements on Pakistan continue to hammer in the theme that election results notwithstanding General (Retd.) Musharraf continues to be the President of Pakistan and they will continue to deal with him. 

Such statements either betray a lack of knowledge of the unfolding legal status of Musharraf vis-à-vis the coalition government that should be in power shortly or indicates a United States policy obsession that come what may America would perpetuate Musharraf in power. 

In both cases such attitudinal fixations could be dangerous for General Musharraf and the Untied States too.  Post-electoral verdict United States pronouncements have led some observers in Pakistan to the conclusion that the General Elections were a United States ploy to reduce the heat on Musharraf and to defuse the explosive political mix that could have ignited violently on the streets of Pakistan. 

The United States has reached a dead end in Pakistan and the time seems to have come when it is a strategic and political imperative to re-calibrate its policies on Pakistan. 

This is examined under the following heads: 

  • Pakistan: A United States-Specific Reality Check
  • United States Continuance of Musharraf-centric policies: The Dangers
  • United States: The Way Ahead in Pakistan

Pakistan: A United States-Specific Reality Check 

United States policy formulations on Pakistan are bound to go drastically wrong if it fails to do a strategic and political reality-check on the situation that has emerged in Pakistan or it chooses to remain oblivious to it. 

The United States must seriously ponder on the following harsh realities, however perceptively different they may from its prevailing policy precepts: 

  • General Musharraf stands resoundingly rejected as President by the people of Pakistan, even though his name was not on the ballot.  The parties endorsed  by him and all the ministers in the Musharraf Government stand voted out.
  • General Musharraf’s exit has not been brought about by the Taliban or Al Qaeda, but by the growing civil society in Pakistan and Pakistani masses.
  • The image of the Pakistan Army as the glue which holds Pakistan together has been severely dented in eight years of military rule.
  • Political opposition to continuance of General Musharraf as President has not only emerged from a vast cross-section of Pakistan’s public but from General Musharraf’s own constituency.
  • Unprecedented in Pakistan’s history, for the fist time retired Pakistan Generals were demonstrating in front of the General Headquarters and in Islamabad demanding that for the integrity of Pakistan and in the interests of the Pakistan Army, General Musharraf must quit.
  • Pakistan has emerged as the most anti USA nation as a result of America’s Musharraf-centric policies
  • Musharraf’s strategic indispensability to prosecute America’s global war on terror is questionable.  Civilian democratic governments would be better placed to explore political solutions to the terror threat.
  • The US myth that Musharraf stands as a bulwark against Islamist fundamentalism in Pakistan has been exploded by the electoral verdict.  The Islamist Alliance Governments in the explosive Pakistani Western frontier provinces stand voted out in the elections.
  • In the volatile NWFP the scene of the most potent Taliban and Al Qaeda threats, the people have voted in the ANP which is a secular party to replace the Islamic fundamentalist alliance.

In terms of a reality check the overwhelming message that has emerged from the ballot box and which the United States should respect is that: 

  • The Pakistani people have rejected General Musharraf and military regimes including any follow-up that anybody would have in mind.
  • The Pakistani people want unadulterated democracy and liberal institutions of a modern state.
  • The Pakistani people have rejected Islamic fundamentalism as a political weapon endorsed by Pakistan Army

The United States would therefore be negating the verdict of the Pakistani people, should it choose to indulge in policies of perpetuating General Musharraf in power. 

United States Continuance of Musharraf-centric policies: The Dangers 

The United States if it wishes to continue as the power with strong strategic and political influence in Pakistan needs to re-calibrate American policies to be in harmonius synchronization with the national aspirations of the Pakistani people. 

Post-electoral verdict pronouncements by US Administration officials are not inducing the confidence that the United States would be turning a new leaf in its approaches to Pakistan. The flurry of meetings by US diplomats with political leaders after the electoral verdict has created a further negative reaction amongst the Pakistani public that the United States is bent on perpetuating Musharraf in power at any cost.

Continuance of Musharraf-centric and Pakistan Army-centric policies by the United States carries the following serious implications: 

  • Democracy’s time has come in Pakistan and increasingly the Pakistani public would not be a mute spectator to repeat of military takeovers in Pakistan with external permissiveness.
  • United States foreign policy formulations negating the present electoral verdict and dis-respecting Pakistanis national sentiments carry the dangers of the United States being rendered “irrelevant” in the future Pakistani scheme of things.
  • As it is, it is difficult for Pakistanis to forgive the Untied States for being an active party in perpetuating General Musharraf in power.
  • United States-brokered political solutions could lead to a total disillusionment amongst Pakistanis that peaceful political upsurges which brought about the present electoral verdict will not be respected and therefore violence as a political weapon can only bring about the political transformation of Pakistan.
  • United States-brokered political solutions are likely to generate further divisiveness and confrontation in the body-politic of Pakistan.  It could generate widespread violence and lawlessness which neither the Pakistan Army has been able to control so far and nor would the United States have the resources to intervene to restore stability in Pakistan.

The United States has very limited options in Pakistan as it is and the perpetuation of General Musharraf in power does not figure at all in the limited options that America has. 

United States: The Way Ahead in Pakistan 

In very brief terms, the way ahead for the United States in Pakistan lies in embarking on the following initiatives. 

  • Force General Musharraf to quit as President even before the new National Assembly meets
  • Policy precepts in declaratory terms be made that the United States would not favor any future military takeovers in Pakistan and that Pakistan Army should revert itself to civilian control.
  • No military aid in any form be given to Pakistan Army.  Pakistan today is not externally threatened.  It is threatened from within and for that F-16s, Attack Helicopters and PGMs are not the answer.
  • With whatever limited influence that still remains in residue in Pakistan in favor of United States should be used for national reconciliation and nation building in Pakistan. This residual US influence should not be frittered in cobbling political combinations which may not be able to sustain Musharraf in power.
  • Pakistan direty needs economic assistance for economic and social development.  The United States should put an international consortium together to pump in specific project-related aid for transforming the Pakistan Army- created garrison state to an economically vibrant and socially democratic Pakistan

A significant point that the United States must respect while looking ahead is that it must recognize that political power and political control of Pakistan resides in Punjab as the following percentages of Pakistan provincial representation in the 342 seats Pakistan National Assembly indicates: 

  • Punjab           –    55%
  • Sind              –    25%
  • NWFP          –    15%
  • Baluchistan    –    5%

In the past, United States Administrations have favored non-Punjabis as Prime Ministers of Pakistan.  Former Nawaz Sharif as Prime Minister twice was hardly tolerated. 

But the inescapable reality is that whosoever controls Punjab politically also controls Pakistan politically. Nawaz Sharif’s party has won in Punjab and he cannot be politically marginalized in any US policy formulations because he is implacably opposed to General Musharraf.

Concluding Observations 

Strong strategic and political imperatives exist for the United States to recalibrate its policies towards Pakistan.  No longer can the United States expect that the Pakistani public and especially its younger generation to remain as mute spectators to Musharraf's continuance in power over-riding the electoral verdict or any future emergence of military regimes with external permissiveness. 

United States perceived threats focusing on Pakistan in terms of Islamic Jehad, terrorism and WMD proliferation can be more effectively tackled in cooperation with Pakistani democratic civilian governments. Civilian governments would be better positioned politically to reach out to Pakistan's fringe elements embittered by Musharraf's security, political and domestic policies.

Finally, in the last referred paper of the Author, John Norris of International Crisis Group was quoted as follows: 

               “The world community should approach Pakistan and its problems with open eyes.  Offering tacit support for quasi-military rule into the indefinite future may make it more difficult, not less to tackle the foundations of Pakistan’s insecurity.” 

The above is once again a timely reminder for the United States to recalibrate its policies towards Pakistan.

(The author is an International Relations and Strategic Affairs analyst.  He is the Consultant, Strategic Affairs with South Asia Analysis Group.  Email:drsubhashkapila@yahoo.com)

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