China’s Multi-Coloured Expos

China’s Multi-Coloured Expos

by Bhaskar Roy

Speaking at a luncheon hosted by Hong Kong’s Asia Society on June 19, Chinese Ambassador to India, Zhang Yan, said that China had no intention to encircle India and sees India as a partner. Around the same time, Chinese Vice Premier for Asia, Wu Dawei told the media that the Sino-Indian border was a sensitive issue.

On the other side, Chinese Consul General in Kolkata West Bengal, Mao Si Wei, told a Chamber of Commerce gathering that China had accepted Sikkim as a part of India during Indian Prime Minister A. B. Vajpayee’s visit to China in 2003. From where Mr. Mao conjured up this bit of information confounds everybody. Official records available to the public do not show any such agreement during Mr. Vajpayee’s visit. It was also not the forum Mr. Mao to make such a political statement. If any Chinese official serving in India has the right to make such a statement, it is the Chinese Ambassador in New Delhi. And if that carries any official value it has to be in the form of a note verbale from the embassy, conveying the position of the government of the people’s Republic of China, with no ambiguity whatsoever.

What are such statements in aid of and to what end? The Chinese officials are not known to make such statements on their own, especially on such sensitive issues mentioned here. Direction on such statement come from Beijing, and the months that articulate them do not have the luxury of even shifting an inch from the direction coming from back home.

So, do we take Mr. Mao Se Wei’s statement as China’s official position? Or, for that matter, even Premier Wen Jiabao’s map diplomacy during his visit to India in 2005, showing Sikkim as a part of India, as an end to the Sikkim issue?

China’s old official position that Sikkim is an independent country annexed by India illegally in 1974, was in writing with official stamp. The only way that China has altered its position on Sikkim that can be officially acceptable to India will be when Beijing puts it down in black and white without any ambiguity. That has not happened.

The remarks made the Chinese Ambassador to India, Zhang Yan, in Hong Kong was by no means a make of routine. Nor was that of Mao Si Wei in Kolkata. Ambassador Zhang’s observation on encirclement of India was aimed at the South East Asian audience.

China looms large and powerful over the South East Asian (SEA) countries. Relations between these countries now formed into the grouping called Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN), and China have gone through a long period of mutual distrust, tensions and even skirmishes. Vietnam cannot forget China’s attack in 1979 to “teach Vietnam a lesson”. It was a short and bloody war to subjugate Hanoi, but rather unsuccessful from China’s part. Instead of “teaching a lesson” it got a bloody nose. Again it was on the question of territory.

Neither Indonesian nor Thailand would have forgotten Beijing’s efforts in the 1960s and 1970s to format comment revolutions, and the role of the Chinese diaspora. Disputes still remain over the sovereignty over the Sprately Islands in the South China Sea. Dispute between Chinese over the Paracel Islands still remain. Although Beijing has taken over these Islands militarily and refuses to negotiate, Vietnam has not dropped its claims.

Territorial disputes still remain over the gas rich sea area. China’s offer to keep aside the disputes and enter into joint development of these areas are not happy offers to the other claimants. China holds the position that joint developments would be conducted under the premier that these are Chinese sovereign territory. China has also militarized the area with PLA armed deployment on the Mischief Reef, the largest of the Sprately group of Islands.

Given the geography, relations and interactions including interdependence to some extent, is natural between the two sides. China is heavily dependent on the natural resources of SEA for its development and keep the economy growing. Indonesia is a particular interest because of its oil and gas resources, as is Brunei Darussalam. The SEA countries benefit from trade and economic relations with Chinese to keep their job markets and economy healthy. But the relationship remains uncomfortable, forcing the SEA countries to look over their shoulders constantly.

Ambassador Zhang Yan’s observations regarding India in Hong Kong was well choreographed as usual. The reports and satellite photographs of China’s semi-submerged submarine base in Sanya, Hainan Island province precipitated international discussions over China’s intention in South East Asia and beyond. The Sanya submarine base is meant for its Type 093 and Type 094 nuclear powered submarine with the 094 carrying JL-2 nuclear missiles. Nuclear weapons are not necessarily used. But they make a very important point about power.

Recent media reports and analysis have detailed how China is incrementally encircling India – China’s political, military and strategic encirclement of India through the latter’s neighbours is well known. The new element, however, is the indicators of the possible use of the Chinese navy to patrol India’s periphery from the east to the west. To execute such a strategy, China will first have to dominate and dictate South China Sea, the Malacca Strait and other water ways, constructing the freedom of the SEA nations.

China’s changing stand on border issue with India should raise serious questions in South East Asia too. The problem will be how to deal with Chinese territorial claims, especially when other claims come suddenly from nowhere.

Zhand Yan tried to explain China’s benign and friendly intentions towards India and squash reports of its hidden agenda. Mao Si Wei’s effort was even weaker.

The questions the SEA countries are asking is whether there is a durability of trust when dealing with China, and at what point and with how much compromise territorial disputes with China can be finally settled.

(The author is an eminent China analyst with many years of experience of study on the developments in China. He can be reached at grouchohart@yahoo.com)