US-China Engagement in Pakistan

US-China Engagement in Pakistan - A Chinese View

by Bhaskar Roy

Pakistan remains a center of contention between China and the USA because of its strategic geographical location, and its high profile in the Islamic world. On the other hand, Islamabad has traditionally played its cards rather well between Beijing and Washington, deriving considerable benefit from both. President Pervez Musharraf excelled in this game, convincing both the countries that it was only he who could ensure the stability of Pakistan. Musharraf’s claim has not been questioned by either country, and he continues to enjoy their support.

There was a short period of trilateral alliance between the US, Pakistan and China during this cold war against the Soviet Union. This was triggered by Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979. Possible fall of Afghanistan to the Soviets followed by Moscow’s entry into Pakistan were seen by the USA and China as inimical to their security interests in their different ways.

Following the end of the cold war, US-China engagement over Pakistan reverted to their old status – China’s distrust of US intentions in Pakistan, and US strategy to use Pakistan as the central staging post for expansion in Central Asia in one direction, and expand its hold in South Asia and the Indian Ocean. Both use strategic thrusts which have raised China’s concerns which include security for its energy imports, and has naturally drawn in India’s role in this complicated matrix.

China is watching with increasing concern the rising Taliban and Islamic militancy and terrorism in Afghanistan and Pakistan. The sudden growth of Taliban attacks on the US and ISAF forces in Afghanistan is a singularly important development, because most of the Taliban attacks come from bases in Pakistan’s northern tribal areas like FATA and North West Frontier Province (NWFP).

US officials have claimed recently that former and serving ISI officials have been assisting the Taliban including the Pakistani Taliban like Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) led by Behtullah Masud. Masud is well known to be a creation of ISI. The USA has given more than hints that they are within their rights to strike against the militants inside Pakistan if the government in Islamabad is unable to curb militancy. Pak Foreign Minister Qureshi has admitted that the Americans are concerned that another “9/11” type of attack on the USA is brewing in Pakistan’s northern area.

Beijing is also concerned over the terrorist attacks inside Pakistan which have risen sharply over the last one year at least. There concerns extend to theoretical projection of a possible fragmentation of Pakistan possibly engineered by the Americans.

The Chinese are also calculating India’s role in the US influenced strategic dimensions of politics in South Asia against China, and the danger that India may become a US instrument.

A paper produced by the International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS) of China, a think tank of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), has brought out many of these questions and warned India of consequences if it decided to do USA’s dirty work. The IISS is an official policy feeder to the Chinese government, and this particular paper (July 6, 2008) has been submitted as “Reference Material” to the government and military policy makers.

The IISS paper appears to view the US as dangerously poised in Pakistan using terrorism to threaten China’s security through destroying the territorial integrity of Pakistan and India. It presents several scenarios.

One is engineering differences between different ethnic groups in Pakistan and fragmenting the country with Punjab, Sindhis, Pashtoons and the Baloch drawing their own national borders. The US would also see to use transnational ethnic groups, exploit their differences and weaken the outlying areas and control the Arabian Sea. If Kashmir was added to USA’s ethnic population strategy, the situation would be much more complex, the report says.

Apparently in the wake of the growing US-India relations, the IISS paper concludes that the USA was helping India gain sweeping powers in its periphery, especially over Pakistan. It deduces that by first helping India weaken Pakistan, Washington would want China to come to Pakistan’s aid as it did with North Korea in the Korean war. It sees an India-Pakistan war in which the Chinese armed forces come to Pakistan’s aid.

In a manner, the paper is of the view that with such nefarious machination the US would want to provoke an India-China war. It cautions that since the US knows it cannot defeat China, the US would try and pit India against China in a local military conflict. It has warned that in such a scenario India would, of course, be defeated and India would disintegrate. In coming to this conclusion the IISS study takes into account that India is the most complex ethnic and religious country in the world and, therefore, unstable.

The China study does not rule out Washington provoking upheaval through “colour revolution” at it did in Ukraine. But at the same time, it does not want to break up the South Asian region directly, but through using India.

While not expanding on how a disintegrated India would affect China, it is convinced that a disintegrated Pakistan is not in China’s interest. It adds a line that President Pervez Musharraf was the only factor for Pakistan’s stability.

There are two primary concessions from the Chinese perspective. One, the new democratic dispensation in Pakistan are a confused lot. The ruling coalition could not pass the first 100 days without serious internal conflicts. They are far from settling down, and losing steam. Since the weakening of President Musharraf, Islamic militancy and terrorism have gone up sharply and the government has no convincing road map to deal with it, giving reason for the US to intervene inside Pakistan militarily. Once inside, it would not be easy for the US troops to disengage and withdraw.

Two, rise of Islamist militancy which flows into Afghanistan and aims to create an extremely religious emirate, is a serious threat to China’s own stability and territorial integrity. This area is contiguous to China’s Xinjiang region, where Muslim Uighurs are fighting for a separate, independent state. The Chinese believe direct involvement of the USA would exacerbate the already deteriorating situation.

Yet, China has been playing multiple games in Pakistan and Afghanistan including with the issue of Islamic terrorism. China is seen to have done little to strengthen the international fight against terrorism. It did not mind if acts of terrorism hurt India, Europe and the USA, as long as they could cut a deal to ensure they were left alone. A short sighted policy indeed, and Beijing would be well advised to revisit it.

India is a multi-dimensional issue with the China. It sees India as an emerging challenge both regionally and globally. Beijing certainly does not expect India to start a war with China unless, of course, their provocations especially military go beyond tolerance. China is also being presumptuous, as this IISS study says that India will disintegrate into fragments in case of such a war.

The Chinese cannot hide their arrogance. It is not only this paper but other studies from this same military institution that frequently threatens India with war and defeat.

China’s concern is growing India-US military and high technology relationship which can help in the rapid growth of India’s Comprehensive National Power (CNP). They are aware that India-Russia relations remain warm and strong, and Moscow feels comfortable to transfer state-of-the art military technology to India, a sign of mutual trust. On the other hand, real trust is lacking between Moscow and Beijing for reasons both know. Unfortunately, China cannot resist putting its hands in the till when the other partner is not looking.

Notwithstanding the foregoing, what the IISS says about US strategy is not totally without merit. US reentry into Afghanistan was provoked by the “9/11” terrorist attack in the USA. But operation “Iraqi Freedom” was a combination of revenge and naked aggression for energy resources. But if the US truthfully pursues the peaceful approach with Iran as evidenced by the US Under Secretary of State Willing Burns joining the European delegation in talks with Iran on the nuclear issue, or setting up a US Interests office in Tehran this would suggest they have learnt that their strength also has limits.

It is very unlikely if any Indian government would embark upon a war with Pakistan to disintegrate the country. This scenario is possible if only China assures the Pakistan army of adequate military support to repeat another misadventure. It is known that during high tensions on the Indo-Pak border following the ISI supported terrorist attack on India’s Parliament, China had transferred heavy weapons and ammunition to Pakistan on an emergency basis. If there is a future India-Pakistan war China would be responsible for it.

China has not made India’s living space easy. It is China which kept south Asia in a state of instability through its political and military diplomacy. It is primarily responsible for nuclearization of South Asia and potential nuclearization of Asia at large. It is left to pundits and mandarins to figure out which country is more dangerous to Asia’s peace, stability and development – USA or China. The answer may not be difficult to find.

(The author is an eminent China analyst with many years of experience of study on the developments in China. He can be reached at grouchohart@yahoo.com)