Afghanistan And Pakistan: Comparative Analysis Of Geostrategic And Geo-Political Significance

AFGHANISTAN AND PAKISTAN: COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF GEO-STRATEGIC AND GEO-POLITICAL SIGNIFICANCE

By Dr. Subhash Kapila

Introductory Observations

The United States new Af-Pak Strategic Blueprint has lumped together Afghanistan and Pakistan as a single hyphenated geo-strategic and geopolitical identity in the region as the central focus of its renewed bid to restore stability.

The dangers of strategically joining at the hip both Afghanistan and Pakistan together may be a wise tactical masterstroke but is strategically unwise.

Afghanistan and Pakistan are two separate and distinct geo-strategic and geopolitical entities. A comparative analysis of Afghanistan and Pakistan which this Paper attempts to analyze, would indicate that the geo-strategic and geopolitical significance of Afghanistan far outweighs that of Pakistan, both in regional terms and in the global power games.

In passing, it could also be asserted that despite its landlocked location, Afghanistan far outweighs Pakistan in geo-economic terms too both in terms of substantial deposits of oil and natural gas (assessed but not tapped) and as a energy corridor for Central Asia energy produce.

If Afghanistan was not geo-strategically and geo-politically significant, then the United States would have not have executed two military interventions in Afghanistan in a span of 20 years.

Echoing the assertions of America’s noted strategist Zbignew Brezezinski in terms of United States retaining predominance in Eurasia, this Author would like to offer a pointer that what the United States today is confronting is a regional Islamist coalition of the Taliban and Al Qaeda operating from Pakistan Army sponsored safe havens in Pakistan’s border tracts, intent on pushing out the United States from Afghanistan and the region.

It stands pointed out in this Author’s earlier Papers that in terms of public attitudes polled, the majority of Pakistanis and the Pakistan Army’s rank and file are decidedly anti-American. Contrastingly, the majority of the Afghans are in favor of the United States military presence in Afghanistan to restore stability.

Significantly, it should not be overlooked by the US strategic establishment, that the United States rode in victory into Kabul in 2002 on the shoulders of the Afghan Northern Alliance and not the Pakistan Army.

With the contextual background having been laid out, this Paper attempts to analyze the main theme of this Paper under the following heads:

Afghanistan: Its Geo-strategic Significance
Pakistan’s Geo-strategic Significance Exaggerated by United States and China
Afghanistan’s Geo-political Significance Reinforced by its Strategic Location
Pakistan’s Geo-political Importance Only in United States, China and Saudi Arabia Strategic Calculus

Afghanistan: Its Geo-strategic Significance

Afghanistan with a noticeable sizeable chunk of geometrically regular territorial configuration lies at the intersection of the Indian Sub-Continent (Pakistan), the Middle East (Iran), Central Asia (Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan) and China (The Wakhan Corridor).

In terms of International borders, the details are Pakistan (2430 km); Iran (936 km); Tajikistan (1206 km); Uzbekistan (137 km); Turkmenistan (744 km), and China (75 km).

While the theory of buffer states may no longer be operative, but the considerations of regional balance of power and a country’s location affording geo-strategic access to strategically vital regions especially in terms of energy security are strong strategic determinations today.

In terms of United States national security interests and regional strategy, Afghanistan offers better long term strategic prospects than Pakistan. Afghanistan's landlocked location should be no impediment to the United States which has conquered gegraphical constraints by air-mobility.

American strategic planners seem to view strategic access to Afghanistan, through the long torturous routes through Pakistan emanating from Karachi to Kabul via the Khyber Pass.

The United States has now awoken to the much shorter route from Iran (Chahbahar Port) and then via the Indian constructed link road joining the Iranian border to the Afghanistan circular national highway.

Geo-strategically, if the United States wishes to adhere to Brezezinski’s famous precept of USA retaining predominance in Eurasia, then Afghanistan with a US-Iran rapprochement in tandem offers the best option.

Pakistan’s Geo-strategic Significance Exaggerated by United States and China

In terms of geographical configuration, Pakistan stands out on the map as an elongated thin slive of territory, more in the nature of a “geographical appendix” of the Indian Sub-continent.

Pakistan’s geographical configuration offers no “strategic depth” in relation to its more powerful neighbours and this magnifies her security problems and also her national security uncertainties

Pakistan’s long land borders with India (2912 km); Iran (909 km); Afghanistan (2430 km); and China (523 km) pose serious security problems with its more sizeable neighbors except China, presently. Pakistan has border disputes with Afghanistan and India.

Pakistan’s geo-strategic significance has all along in its 60 years plus existence has stood considerably exaggerated by the US strategic planners. Originally, in relation to the Cold War containment strategy, in the 1980s as a spring board for US strategy to confront Soviet occupation of Afghanistan and presently (doubtful strategic utilitiy) in the global war on terrorism.

Pakistan’s geo-strategic significance appeals to US strategic planners only in its value as a “rental state” to meet US strategic ends.

China attaches great importance to Pakistan’s geo-strategic location only in terms of giving China land access to the Arabian Sea (Gwadar & Karachi); energy corridor (Gwadur to Xinjiang via Khenjerab Pass); and a Chinese Naval Base in the proximity of the strategic choke point of Hormuz Straits (Gwadur).

In terms of future US containment strategy of China, Afghanistan air bases offers better prospects than Pakistan, provided USA stays embedded in Afghanistan. Afghan air-bases also provide an added strategic asset for US strategic air coverage of the Central Asian Republics and the Middle East.

As stated before if the choice confronts Pakistan in terms of strategic support for USA versus China, Pakistan will opt for China. In real terms Pakistan geo-strategically offers no value to USA except for a very remote possibility of use as an India-containment strategy.

Afghanistan’s Geo-political Significance Reinforced by its Strategic Location

Afghanistan geo-politically has existed as a nation state since 1749 onwards and as a political state with recognized boundaries since 1919. In terms of political existence, Afghanistan pre-dates Pakistan by nearly 200 years.

Afghanistan by virtue of its geo-strategic location has witnessed political rivalries over it between Russia and the British Empire and also from Iran.

Politically, today, Afghanistan is at peace with Russia, Iran, India and her Central Asia neighbors. There is ample cooperation and trust between them.

Pakistan has since 1947 been embroiled in confrontationist stances with Afghanistan. Devoid of geographical strategic depth, Pakistan has always argued that Afghanistan falls within its security perimeter and it should therefore exercise strategic control over it. The Taliban was created by the Pakistan Army as the instrument to execute this design.

In terms of geopolitics, Russia along with Iran and India have a convergence of strategic interests in mantaining Afghanistan as a stable independent entity, free of the virulent Islamist influences emanating from Pakistan.

Geo-politically, the United States has a strategic imperatives to retain control over Afghanistan, far transcending the neutralization of Al Qaeda and Taliban.

The United States however is in a strategic dilemma as it made its Afghanistan strategy totally dependent on Pakistan Army’s cooperation. A strategic denouement is underway presently.

The United States geopolitically stirs a witches cauldron in Afghanistan by giving primacy to Pakistan Army’s strategic sensitivities to control Afghanistan.

Any US exit from Afghanistan induced by combat fatigue engineered by the Pakistan Army, could create a political vacuum which most likely gets filled in by Russia, Iran and India.

China stands aligned with the Taliban and Pakistan both pre-9/11 and post-9/11 and finds no political support in Afghanistan.

Afghanistan’s geo-political significance therefore far transcends any dilution of US strategic interest or exit from the Afghanistan scene.

Afghanistan, both geo-politically and geo-strategically offers the best prospects for the United States to remain “embedded” in Eurasia.

Pakistan's Geo-political Importance Only in United States, China and Saudi Arabia’s Strategic Calculus

Pakistan's geo-political importance so far figured only in the strategic calculus of the United States, China and Saudi Arabia.

The reasons for Pakistan figuring in the strategic calculus of USA and China stand spelt out earlier in the Paper.

Saudi Arabia has had both a geo-strategic and geo-political interest in Pakistan. It saw Pakistan a strategic balancer of Iran with the same appeal applicable to USA. The United States viewed Pakistan as a springboard for any military strikes on Iran.

Politically, Pakistan offered a fertile ground for promotion of extreme Islami Wahabism all around through Saudi financing of Pakistani Islamist organizations and keeping the Al Qaeda away from Saudi territory and under protective custody of the Pakistan Army is the border tracts of the Pak-Afghan border.

Strategic realities however are fast over-taking the geopolitical interest of these counties in Pakistan.

The US has entered a strategic denouement phase with Pakistan. Pakistan is fast down-sliding into state-failure and its strategic utility to US strategy is becoming limited.

Indicative of a subtle change in Chinese altitudes is that China while ready for strategic investments in Pakistan in encouraging Pakistan Army build- up is not ready to under write Pakistan’s failing economy.

With cleavages surfacing in US- Saudi relations and a likely US-Iran rapprochement the Saudis may have to downgrade their focused interest in Pakistan.

Concluding Observations

A comparative analysis of the geo-strategic and geo-political significance of Afghanistan and Pakistan has contextually become pertinent resulting from the new United States AF-PAK STRATEGY. This strategy has changed American priorities of restoring stability and security in Afghanistan to that of retrieving Pakistan from state-failure.

The present analysis in the Paper, though brief has attempted to focus attention on the fact that the geo-strategic and geo-political significance of Afghanistan for outweighs that of Pakistan, not only for the United States but also for the major regional powers.

The United States can hope for a “strategic embedment” in Eurasia provided it strategizes for a sustained and prolonged engagement in Afghanistan by divorcing its historical baggage of bowing to Pakistan Army's strategic sensitivities over Afghanistan, disconnects Pakistan from its Afghanistan policy formulations and recognizes the strategic reality that the Taliban and Al Qaeda are using Islam and Islamist terrorism as a weapon to push USA out of the region.

(The author is an International Relations and Strategic Affairs analyst. He is the Consultant, Strategic Affairs with South Asia Analysis Group. Email:drsubhashkapila.007@gmail.com)