Afghanistan in China’s Strategic Calculus

AFGHANISTAN IN CHINA’S STRATEGIC CALCULUS

By Dr. Subhash Kapila

Introductory Observations

Afghanistan has long figured in China’s strategic calculus. One of the concessions demanded and given by Russian President Gorbachev in his famous Vladivostok speech in 1989 was the Chinese insistence on Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Afghanistan again today looms large in China’s strategic calculus because of the uncertainties generated by the current US Administration on America’s continued military commitment in Afghanistan.

Afghanistan figures significantly in China’s current strategic calculus more geo-strategically and geo-politically than geo-economically notwithstanding its $ 5billion investment in the Aynak copper mines in the vicinity of Kabul.

China along with Pakistan and Iran enjoys geographical contiguity with Afghanistan even though China’s borders with Afghanistan in the Wakhan Corridor (North East Afghanistan) measure only 74 K.M.

Geo-strategically Afghanistan connects the Indian Sub-continent with Central Asia besides its connecting the Indian s-Sub-continent with the Middle East, primarily Iran. Afghanistan also has geographical contiguity with a number of Central Asian Republics, Afghanistan’s turbulence endangers China’s Muslim turbulent region of Xingjian.

Geo-politically, therefore, Afghanistan becomes strategically significant for China as China has developed sizeable strategic stakes in Pakistan, Iran and the Central Asian Republics.

Notably, all these countries contiguous to Afghanistan have their own stakes in Afghanistan. But what counts more significantly for China is Pakistan’s stakes in Afghanistan.

Afghanistan was primarily a battle ground during the Cold War period between the United States and the Former Soviet Union. Some like to claim that the United States inflicted a “Vietnam” on the Soviet Union in Afghanistan and this paved the way for the eventual disintegration of the Soviet Union.

Contemporarily, Afghanistan has now emerged as the arena for the competing strategic interests of the global major powers and the regional powers. China figures in both these lists and China can be said to have developed significant strategic stakes in Afghanistan, more in direct relation to the corresponding strategic stakes of the United States, NATO and Russia besides the regional countries stakes of India and Iran.

Afghanistan today presents a strategic enigma for China as to how it can harmonize the conflicting demands on China’s strategic focus. Of more strategic concern for China would be the Afghanistan turbulence likely to ensue in the Post-US exit phase as the strategic uncertainties could be more complex and unpredictable than as at present.

Pervading all these uncertainties is the moot question whether China has the strategic will and capacity to deal effectively with the ensuing turbulence in Afghanistan once the United States exits? Also whether China would continue to be obliged to sustain Pakistani strategic stakes in Afghanistan at the cost of its other global and regional strategic priorities.

China currently projects a cautious and low profile posture on Afghanistan though using its leverages with the United States to ensure that Pakistan’s strategic stakes in Afghanistan are secured.

Contextually, therefore, this Paper would like to analyze briefly the following aspects of Afghanistan figuring in China’s strategic calculus:

China’s Strategic Policy Formulations on Afghanistan: The Centrality of the China-Pakistan Ssrategic Nexus Factor
China’s Enigma in Afghanistan: The United States Factor
China’s Likely Options in Afghanistan Post-United States Exit
China’s Afghanistan Policy Perspectives: Some Strategically Challenging Questions
Afghanistan: China and Russia Strategic Convergences or Divergence

China’s Strategic Policy Formulations on Afghanistan: The Centrality of the China-Pakistan Strategic Nexus Factor

China currently has no independent strategic policy formulations on Afghanistan. China’s strategic perspectives on Afghanistan are predominated by the centrality of the sustaining of the China-Pakistan strategic nexus, that means reinforcing by China of Pakistan Army’s strategic sensitivities, strategic stakes and their strategic blue- print for Afghanistan, especially after the exit of US Forces.

Axiomatically, while the United States has reinvented Pakistan Army’s strategic utility for facilitating US exit from Afghanistan, China would like to make use of the Pakistan Army to facilitate China filling the strategic vacuum after US exit.

The China-Pakistan strategic nexus was contrived by China as a counterfoil against India’s strategic predominance in the Indian Sub-continent. Therefore by extension of this factor in China’s strategic calculus, it would aim at keeping out India from Afghanistan by seconding Pakistan’s strategic stakes in Afghanistan.

Outwardly, China seems to be projecting for the benefit of international observers that it is following a low-profile policy on Afghanistan or at best a hedging strategy policy.

However, many media reports indicate that China outside the glare of media publicity has been exerting strong pressures because of its financial leverages on the United States to align its Af-Pak Strategic Blueprint in consonance with Pakistan’s strategic interests and stakes in Afghanistan.

In this connection, some reports indicate that China during US Secretary of State Clinton’s first visit to China laid down the following stipulations for assisting the United States in Afghanistan. (1) End military hostilities in Afghanistan (2) US must desist from de-stabilizing Pakistan (3) US must prevail over India to resolve the Kashmir issue (4) Afghan Taliban be included in any political settlement of Afghanistan’s turbulence (5) US should not pressurize Pakistan Army to undertake military operations against the Afghan Taliban.

Pakistan’s assured and sustained continuance as part of the China-Pakistan strategic nexus is of paramount importance in China’s Grand Strategy. This stands amplified in the author’s earlier papers and hence not being repeated. Needless to state that China’s Grand Strategy in South Asia, Central Asia and the Gulf Region would unravel if Pakistan crumbles under the weight of the United States pressures over Afghanistan.

One is tempted here to conclude that besides other factors, whether China’s pressures led to India being sidelined at conferences on Afghanistan in Istanbul, London and the US re-invented strategic partnership with Pakistan.

In the foreseeable future, China cannot be expected to initiate policy formulations on Afghanistan independent of the China-Pakistan Strategic Nexus factor.

China’s Enigma in Afghanistan: The United States Factor

China suffers from conflicting perceptions of the United States military embedment in Afghanistan. In the initial years of the US military intervention in Afghanistan, China was fearful of US & NATO military involvement in Afghanistan. It was viewed as NATO’s ‘Eastward Creep’ towards China’s peripheries.

Lately, however, China seems to be concerned at the prospects of US & NATO’s Forces exit from Afghanistan. The uncertainties of a strategic vacuum that would follow seems to be unnerving to China. In the resultant turbulence that may even threaten Pakistani existence the China’s Pakistan Strategic Nexus could be severely impacted on.

China may now be inclined to favor a continued embedment of US & NATO Forces in Afghanistan. China is likely to support all United States political and strategic formulations on Afghanistan as long as any US initiative does not threaten the basic premises of the China – Pakistan Strategic Nexus.

China’s likely Options in Afghanistan Post-United States Exit

China’s strategic ally for all seasons, that is the Pakistan Army has for the eight years consistently worked to contrive situations in Afghanistan which prompt a US exit from Afghanistan.

Pakistan Army’s reinvention of its strategic utility to the United States in relation to Afghanistan has been contrived to assure the United States that the Pakistan Army would facilitate a successful US exit from Afghanistan.

China would like the Pakistan Army to facilitate China’s filling in the strategic vacuum in Afghanistan after the United States exit. That is likely to be China’s current blueprint until the imponderables of a civil war in Afghanistan becomes distinctly visible. Strategic analysis would indicate that China strategically can ill-afford an Afghanistan which is not under Pakistan Army’s control or tutelage. This is necessary for China to pre-empt Afghanistan emerging as a strategic springboard against China.

Without going into a detailed exposition of the Post-US Exit scenarios in Afghanistan, it can be briefly stated that Afghanistan could once again be plunged into a civil war situation, which even the Pakistan Army may not be able to handle. In fact the ensuing civil war in Afghanistan could enhance the other regional powers involvement in Afghanistan’s ensuring turbulence, at the expense of both China and Pakistan.

Would China openly intervene to advance Pakistan’s strategic game in Afghanistan, just to protect the China-Pakistan Strategic nexus? The lateral strategic costs of such Chinese involvement on Pakistan’s side in something China would have to seriously consider.

The China-Pakistan Strategic Nexus may be “higher than the Himalayas and deeper than the Arabian Sea” but certainly the sentiment cannot transcend China’s own national security interests.

China’s Afghanistan Policy Perspectives: Some Strategically Challenging Questions

China’s strategic perspectives on Afghanistan would be determined by China’s answers to the following self-questions that China must put to itself:

Can China afford to view Afghanistan policy formulations solely in the South-Asian prism divorced from China’s Central Asian strategy?
Would it be strategically profitable for China to get drawn into a possible civil war scenario in Afghanistan on Pakistan’s sidee in th Post – US exit phase.
Would China prefer that Pakistan’s strategic focus shifts to Afghanistan over-riding China’s strategic preference that Pakistan stay focused on India, the underlying aim of China-Pakistan Strategic Nexus?
Despite, current US policy protestations of Pakistan Army’s invaluability in Afghanistan, there are some imponderables which could even generate a direct US military intervention against Pakistan itself. Would China have the will and capacity to challenge the United States in such a conflict?

China itself can best answer these questions after a strategic evaluation of the cost-profit benefit ratio. Foreseeably, China can be expected to continue with its ‘hedging strategy’ on Afghanistan. It is unlikely to be strategically audacious in generating or challenging the exiting situation in Afghanistan.

Afghanistan: China and Russia Strategic Convergence or Divergence

Russia unlike China has had a long historical record of strategic involvement in Afghanistan and this pattern is likely to continue with Russia’s strategic resurgence.

If China’s strategic policy formulations on Afghanistan will continue to be determined by the China – Pakistan Strategic Nexus factor, then contextually China cannot be said to have any strategic convergence with Russia on Afghanistan. Serious divergences on Afghanistan can arise because of the conflicting equations of the Russia – India Strategic Partnership and the China – Pakistan Strategic Nexus.

On the other hand can China and Russia strike strategic convergences on Afghanistan under the aegis of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization?

This aspect also would depend on the complex state of US – Russia relations and US- China relations at a given moment in time.

Harmonization of a common Russia- China Policy approach on Afghanistan seems a remote possibility.

Some analysts opine that a Russia – China – Iran regional configuration would emerge over Afghanistan. This author feels that the trust deficit of Russia and Iran with Pakistan could prompt a better configuration of Russia-India-Iran. India however would have to do a lot of spadework for it to crystallize. India has yet to undertake meaningful or substantial initiatives in this direction.

Concluding Observations

Afghanistan undoubtedly figures high in China’s strategic calculus both in the global and regional strategic context.

Currently, China’s policy formulations seem to be more centrally determined by the China- Pakistan Strategic Nexus Factor. Pakistan’s perceptions and strategic stakes in Afghanistan find priority focus in Chinese policy formulations on Afghanistan.

Afghanistan today poses a strategic enigma to China’s policy establishment as the challenges are complex and conflicting for China. The strategic situation as evolving in Afghanistan is dominated by complex uncertainties.

China seems therefore to be inclined to follow a “hedging strategy” on Afghanistan. This trend is likely to continue as the situation in Afghanistan that could follow after the US exit would even be more challenging and unpredictable for China than at present.

(The author is an International Relations and Strategic Affairs analyst. He is the Consultant, Strategic Affairs with South Asia Analysis Group. Email: drsubhashkapila.007@gmail.com)