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9-April-2008
NEPAL: Election Eve- Update No. 155
By Dr. S.Chandrasekharan.
One analyst stationed in Kathmandu while describing the situation in Nepal said that it is messy then but is going to be messier after the Constitutional Elections. All indicators are that it is going to be so. Indian worries will multiply.
I say this because in Indian circles there is a sigh of relief and a feeling of satisfaction that at last, the interim government has managed to get the election to CA on schedule on April 10 and all problems are over. It is now being realised in Nepal too that the problems would then start and not end. As late as March 28th, G.P. Koirala said that he feared that there would be disaster if the disagreement among the seven parties continues. It is not the disagreement but the question before him should be whether the Maoists would agree to a result that may be unfavourable to them and much below their expectations.
Consider the following statements of Prachanda in the recent past on the eve of elections.
• Prachanda on 15th March said that his party’s war would continue if they failed to win a majority. Such a war will stop only if they have a majority in the CA polls. This was in Rolpa their stronghold. On 23rd he changed his stand and said that his party would accept whatever verdict the people would give provided the election is free and fair. The key for free and fair election is in his hands and no one else’s.
• Prachanda on 26th March said that he found a huge wave of public support and Maoist victory is certain. Only conspiracies could engineer a Maoists’ defeat and therefore his party will not accept negative poll results
• On 29th March, Prachanda said that a conspiracy is being hatched to defer the CA polls after a wave was seen in favour of the party. Regressive forces are irritated that it is almost certain that the party will win 150 seats in the CA polls.
• In the same meeting he said that the party has already won the polls in political terms!
• Badal the PLA commander has claimed that regressive forces are hatching a conspiracy to finish the Maoists.
For the first time in the three general elections in Nepal since 1990, Nepal is experiencing unprecedented pre poll violence. A total of 92245 Nepalis from local NGOs affiliated to 148 organisations within Nepal will be observing the elections. Besides this, there will be 500 foreign observers from seven foreign NGOs including some from the Carter Centre. Former US President Jimmy Carter is already in Nepal and has met the political leaders including Prachanda.
Nepal has thus become a playing field for many foreign organisations, who in the first instance have no business to be there at all!
It is difficult to say even now whether these observers could prevent intimidation and violence in remote regions and all that they can do is to report after the events! It is generally conceded that poll environment is poor.
With violence continuing unabated despite repeated agreements among parties, it is a wonder that the Election Commission has decided to go ahead with the elections. The armed gangs in Terai have continued with daily bombing causing deaths and serious injuries to many not only in Terai but in the heart of Kathmandu and in Lalitpur leaving no clues to the Police as to the perpetrators.
The major culprit amongst the contesting political parties is the CPN ( Maoist) that has continued with its depredations from disturbing the meetings to attacking and kidnapping the poll candidates in a big way all over Nepal.
Having unleashed the YCL and recently even the PLA fighters in their fatigues, it is difficult to see how the Maoists could claim that regressive forces are out to finish them.
It is not that other parties have not tried to prevent pre poll violence.
On 1st April, top leaders G.P.Koirala, Madhav Nepal and Prachanda signed a ten-point agreement at the PM’s residence. This included-
• All parties will not interfere in each others’ election campaigning. (This is precisely what was happening even up to the last day)
• Elections will be held peacefully. ( This remains to be seen)
• There will be no terror activities by the parties. ( It was happening still and this included those Terain armed gangs not party to the agreement)
• Abide by the EC’s code of conduct. ( Never followed!)
• Perhaps the most important one was the formation of a committee consisting of Amrit Bohara, Dr. Prakash Saran Mahat and Mohan Vaidya to recommend or take action against any party or individual trying to vitiate the poll atmosphere. ( This committee never recommended and if it had done, all the mainstream parties will have to be penalised!)
Since the ten point agreement did not work, Padma Ratna Tuladhar, a well known Human rights activist convened a press conference on his own initiative to have the left leaning parties to come to an agreement. The parties included Madhav Nepal of UML, Prachanda of CPN Maoist and Prakash of CPN- Unity Centre Mashal. The four point agreement signed on 8th April said that
• They will not attack or counter attack cadres and candidates of other parties.
• Will not prevent voters from casting votes.
• To let the vote counting to be done smoothly
• To conduct the elections in a peaceful and in a dignified manner and any dispute or controversy during election time will be settled peacefully.
After being battered with their cadres being attacked, killed and in many cases seriously injured, Madhav Nepal is hoping to do business with the Maoists. His action appears to be suspect. Either he is too naive and hoping to soften the Maoists in the days to come as UML is expected to have a good showing or it could be a deeper agenda of the leftists joining hands after CA elections to effectively isolate the major democratic party the Nepali Congress. It also depends on the performance of the Nepali Congress which has become active too late in the day!
The Election Commission has announced that it will take almost three weeks to announce the final results though counting will be over in a week. There could be a lull to start with but will not last long. The armed Terain groups will continue its depredations with no chance of reconciliation and India will have a ready made problem on hand soon after the elections. With results not likely to go in favour of any one party, will the unstable situation in Nepal continue? Quite likely.
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