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Note No. 457 20-July-2008
NEPAL: Presidential Polls: Isolating the Maoists will lead to Instability-Update No. 165
Dr. S.Chandrasekharan
The Presidential Polls of the Nepal Constitutional assembly took a dramatic turn with everything turning upside down! .
With talks for consensus candidates for the post of President between the Maoists and the UML on the one hand and between the Maoists and the Madhesi Janaadhikar Forum of Upendra Yadav on the vice presidential candidate on the other breaking down, a new alignment took place that made the Presidential elections a farce.
Two hours before the Constituent assembly proceedings on 19th July, representatives of the Nepali Congress, the UML and the MJF met and agreed to unitedly extend support to the Nepali Congress candidate Dr. Ram Baran Yadav for president, the UML candidate for the post of chairperson of the CA assembly and Paramananda Jha of MJF for vice-president.
Thus in the elections that followed, the MJF candidate Paramananda Jha, a former Supreme Court Judge of the Supreme Court was elected with 305 votes against 243 of the Maoists. In the presidential polls, there was some cross voting with the Nepali Congress candidate getting 283 votes against 270 votes for the Maoist supported candidate Ram Raja Prasad Singh. Since neither got to the magic figure of 298 votes, a second round of polling is set to take place on Monday the 21st July. In this it is still not clear whether the NC candidate will be able to muster a majority as there is a possibility of some more cross voting in favour of Ram Raja Prasad Singh.
In the voting, NWPP, RPP-N, RJN and CPN unified boycotted the elections. The sole representative of Chure Bhavar Ekta Party voted in the vice-presidential Polls but not in the Presidential posts. 25 of the Presidential votes and 24 of the vice-presidential votes were found to be invalid. Of the 25 invalid votes in the Presidential poll, 18 were cast for Ram Raja Prasad Singh and 7 were for the NC candidate Dr. Yadav.
Surprisingly Arzoo Rana Deuba wife of senior NC leader Sher Bahadur Deuba did not turn up. She was one among the 16 CA members who did not turn up.
Just as what is happening in India now where the politics and the survival of the government is dependent upon numbers and not on ideology, morals or national interest, the presidential poll in Nepal has been sucked into one of "politics of numbers."
It is also said that the three parties NC, UML and MJF who together would form a slender majority have decided to form a government after the Presidential elections.
The three groups NC, the UML and the MJF have nothing in common. The first two and particularly the UML is totally opposed to the "one Madhes one Pradesh" of the MJF. In the best of times the Terains were never comfortable with the Pahadi dominated Nepali Congress, The understanding reached may go up to electing the government and sharing the power ( spoils) but beyond that it will be weighted down by its own embedded prejudices, past history and grouping sans morals.
The Maoists who for all purposes had the mandate to take over government would feel cheated and betrayed. Isolating them politically is not an easy task and any attempt made in this direction as is being tried now will have serious consequences. Morally the government is theirs and they will not accept the verdict passively. They will seek the support of people in the streets. They are in a position to bring the government to a stand still which in turn may bring serious consequences to the country.
It is said that Gacchadar the leader of MJF in the assembly and the last to leave the Nepali Congress boat has ambitions to be the Prime minister. If he is elected as is being rumoured, Nepal will have Madhesis in all the three posts of president, the vice-president and the Prime minister. I hope this does not happen as it is not in the long term interest of Nepal or the Madhesis.
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