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Note no. 460
24-July-2008
NEPAL: Presidential Elections: More confusion! Update No.166
By Dr. S. Chandrasekharan
In the runoff to the second round of the Presidential elections, Dr. Ram Baran Yadav supported by the newly formed “Left Democratic Alliance” obtained 308 votes against the Maoists-sponsored candidate Ram Raja Prasad Singh who got 282 votes in all.
Ram Baran Yadav studied medicine in Calcutta and did his MD in Chandigarh. He was the General Secretary of the Nepali Congress who got elected from the Dhanusha district in the constituent assembly elections. He is known to be a staunch loyalist of the Nepali Congress and was one of the few Terains who did not leave when many others were abandoning the party.
Thus Nepal will have Madhesis in the posts of both President and Vice President and this is an incongruous arrangement. No doubt Dr. Ram Baran Yadav has become a President by “accident” as the Nepali Congress was vigorously canvassing for G.P.Koirala to be the President. G.P decided not to contest as he said rightly that he did not want to enter into the game of numbers and become a President! The UML was equally unreasonable to claim the post of presidentship to their ex secretary Madhav Nepal who lost the elections in two consistencies in the CA elections.
Thus in the last minute, two hours before the CA elections to the posts of President and Vice President, the three parties the NCP, the UML and the MJF formed what is now being called a “left democratic alliance.” This alliance appears to be nursing hopes to form the government too, in case the Maoists decide to sit in the opposition. The three parties have different ideologies and have come together for the single objective of teaching the Maoists a lesson. It is doubtful whether with a tenuous majority, the Alliance will be able to govern particularly without the cooperation of the Maoists who have decided to sit in the opposition for now.
The Alliance at the most is just a “Shot Gun” wedding unlikely to last long and could soon end up in a “Texas Style” divorce. But the damage has been done. All the parties are losers including the MJF whose leader Upendra Yadav apparently has taken a decision to join the alliance without consulting his senior colleagues.
Prachanda termed the alliance as anti political, unethical and unholy. Baburam Bhattarai called the alliance not only unholy but also unprogressive. He said that the alliance was made to counter his party from taking the lead of the new government as mandated by the people in the CA elections. He added that political games staged in mid 90s have been repeated again at a time when people have been waiting for progressive steps in Nepal’s development.
If the alliance is to take over the government, there is no doubt that one will be witnessing a repetition of the mess made by the political parties in their scramble for power in the mid nineties under the 1990 Constitution.
On July 23 Dr. Ram Baran Yadav took oath of office and secrecy in Nepali while the Vice President designate Paramanda Jha took the oath in Hindi. One significant absentee in the ceremony was Prachanda though his second in command Dr. Babu Ram Bhattarai was present. The Chief of Army General Katuwal made a significant statement to the President that the Nepal Army “would always make honest efforts to keep intact the sovereignty of the Nepali people and would leave no stone unturned to maintain the sovereignty and integrity of the nation.”
Now with the President in position, G.P. Koirala is expected to submit his resignation and it will be left to the President to decide on the next prime minister. If the parliamentary practice is to be followed, the President will have to call upon the leader of the largest party to form the government which in this case is the Maoist group led by Prachanda. If the President is to follow the interim constitution where a consensus has to be tried before elections are held, then he will have to call upon the parties to forward a consensus candidate and if there is no consensus, then the Prime minister will have to be elected by a simple majority in the assembly.
Prachanda has indicated that once their nominees lost in the Presidential and Vic Presidential elections, they would rather sit in the opposition. In a press conference on 22nd he openly accused India of advising him to back G.P.Koirala as President which he said he had rejected. The other points he made were
His party will sit in opposition benches.
His party was committed to peace but there was a danger of the peace process collapsing in case the PLA personnel in the camps are not paid their salaries.
Warned that there is a danger of counter revolution.
Due to “neo capitalists” conspiracy and desire to stick to power that they began to place unnecessary conditions.
While the last point was specifically directed at the Nepali Congress, it is not clear why Prachanda spared the UML who not only asked for the President’s post but also that of the post of Home Minister!
Ganging up against the Maoists by the other three major parties will have a dynamics of its own leading to further instability and it is still not too late for reconciliation and consensus.
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