Bangladesh-India Strategic Partnership: The Imperatives

BANGLADESH-INDIA STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP: THE IMPERATIVES

by Dr. Subhash Kapila

Introductory Observations

Geography and history have destined Bangladesh and India to be neighbours and it is well said that while nations can choose their friends, nations cannot choose their neighbours.

Bangladesh’s political founding fathers and leaders and also Bangladesh military leaders, minus the component which continued with the Pakistan Army till their repatriation, willingly sought India’s military assistance in their war of liberation against Pakistan.

India too for political and strategic reasons responded magnificently to assist Bangladesh in their war of liberation with decisive results.

Bangladesh’s liberation leaders could have turned to China for assistance to free themselves from the Pakistan Army’s genocide. They did not do so conscious of the fact that China was Pakistan’s military ally and strategic patron and would therefore not assist. In fact China continued to refuse recognition of Bangladesh for a number of years in deference to Pakistan’s sensitivities.

Pakistan inflicted one of the worst ethnic genocides in the 20^th century causing over a million deaths of innocent unarmed Bengalis. The Pakistan Army wiped out an entire generation of Bengali intellectuals who were a special target of Pakistan Army killings. China did not even raise a small finger to restrain the Pakistan Army from this ethnic genocide of Bengalis as it valued its strategic relationship with the Pakistan Army far more than the Bangladeshi war of liberation.

Bangladesh’s current strategic reliance on China (including a Bangladesh – China Defence Agreement) and its strategic convergence with Pakistan in relation to India, therefore makes strange reading today. Pakistan and China as foes which opposed Bangladesh’s war of liberation have become strategic partners and India as a strategic partner of Bangladesh’s liberation has been turned into a perceived foe by Bangladesh’s policy establishment till lately.

Bangladesh’s present governing establishment and the Bangladesh Army Chief have in the last year or so have sent positive signals that Bangladesh would like to see a new beginning in Bangladesh-India relations. The visit of Bangladesh Army Chief to India some time back needs to be welcomed.

More touching for Indians were the magnificent and touching tributes paid by the Bangladesh Army Chief and Bangladesh media on the recent death of Field Marshal Sam Manekshaw. It eloquently points out that despite political irritants, Bangladesh is no political ingratiate.

This year Bangladesh invited dozens of Indian war veterans who fought for Bangladesh liberation and were feted in Dhaka. This was again a fine gesture and well received by Indians.

The present juncture therefore seems to be an opportune time for India to initiate speedily a comprehensive package of Confidence Building Measures (CBMs) towards Bangladesh which finally could culminate in a Bangladesh-India Strategic Partnership.

India’s policy establishment and its diplomats can be said to have failed in not being to effectively and firmly manage Bangladesh strategically to ensure that Pakistan and China did not exploit Bangladesh's insecurities at India's expense. More than Bangladesh, it is India’s strategic imperatives that now should impel India’s policy establishment to work towards forging a Bangladesh-India Strategic Partnership.

India should forget the past mutual animosities and irritants that Pakistan and China fostered and look towards the future positively. Stacked against Pakistan and China’s game plans in Bangladesh are new strategic realities and which now operate in India’s favour in forging a substantive relationship with Bangladesh.

To reinforce the above assertions, this paper intends to examine the following salient aspects:

Bangladesh- India Strategic Partnership: The Geo-strategic, Geo-political and Geo-economic Imperatives
Bangladesh’s India-Specific Threat Perceptions Unfounded
South Asia’s New Strategic Realities: Imperatives for Change in Bangladesh Strategic Formulations
Bangladesh-India Strategic Partnership: India’s Strategic, Political and Economic Initiatives

This Paper should not be misconstrued as a one-sided exposition of what India should do and as if to say nothing is recognized to be done by Bangladesh. Bangladesh to initiate mutual trust must firmly deal with anti-Indian elements operating from its territory.

If the stress is on what India must do, it is because there is a large onus on India as the predominant partner in a new venture of Bangladesh-India Strategic Partnership.

Bangladesh-India Strategic Partnership: The Geo-strategic, Geo-political and Geo-economic Imperatives

Geo-strategic imperatives that determine a Bangladesh-India Strategic Partnership are the factors of the geographical location of both countries, the geographical configuration of both Bangladesh and India and how these both reinforce or negate the strategic asymmetry, especially in the case of Bangladesh. Also needs to be considered are the relative locations of India and Bangladesh and Bangladesh's relative location to Pakistan and China as the intrusive nations in Bangladesh Strategy.

In geographical terms, India’s geo-strategic importance lies in both regional and global terms. India’s geographical dominance of the Indian sub-continent is unquestioned. This geographical dominance in terms of size extends to Bangladesh also. Bangladesh has no intrinsic geo-strategic significance in global terms.

In terms of geographical configuration, India envelopes Bangladesh on three flanks with its fourth flank resting on the Bay of Bengal. This confers on India significant strategic advantages. In Bangladesh’s strategic perceptions this generates strategic uncertainties and strategic uncertaities. Ironically, for Pakistan and China, the geographical configuration of Bangladesh becomes an attractive strategic proposition to exploit Bangladesh as a spring board for their proxy wars against India and other destabilization activities..

Bangladesh could have emerged as a major strategic concern and threat for India had Bangladesh enjoyed geographical contiguity with India’s adversaries, namely China and India. Fortunately for India this is not so.

Geo-politically, it is a strategic imperative for India that Bangladesh as a densely populated Muslim country on India’s eastern flank is politically stable. Its instability creates turbulence in India's neighboring states. Bangladesh on the other hand, needs to perceive that a politically stable, democratic and secular gigantic India as a neighbor is a politico-strategic asset which needs to be assiduously cultivated for a comprehensive security support system for Bangladesh.

In a globalized economically inter-dependant world, this reality is more than applicable to both Bangladesh and India. Bangladesh can gain handsome economic gains if it economically plugs-in into the vibrant and sustained economic growth of India. Greater integration of Bangladesh economy with India could contribute in the long run to alleviation of Bangladesh’s unmanageable poverty and the social instability that is so attendant.

Bangladesh’s India-Specific Threat Perceptions Unfounded

Bangladesh’s India-specific threat perceptions have been in the last three decades or so been fostered significantly by China and Pakistan for their own strategic gains.

China and Pakistan perceive Bangladesh’s geographical configuration as an ideal base for their proxy wars and other destabilization activities against India. To ensure their strategic ends both China and Pakistan have preyed on Bangladesh’s perceived threat perceptions from India basically on the geographical and strategic asyinmetry.

In this process, Bangladesh seems to have ignored the following factors while arriving on its threat perceptions from India: (1) India has never militarily or economically threatened Bangladesh even despite transgressions by Bangladesh in hosting ISI, Chinese and anti-Indian insurgent groups (2) India’s borders with Bangladesh are manned by para-military forces and not the Indian Army (3) Indian Army deployments in the North East are China- specific and not aimed at Bangladesh (4) India has not hosted any anti-Bangladesh insurgent groups.

Against the above backdrop, the only conclusion that emerges is that Bangladesh’s threat perceptions arise from assessments of India’s “strategic capabilities” only and not much analysis has been done of India’s “strategic intentions”.

If India’s “strategic intentions” were not benign or Bangladesh-friendly, then India would never have militarily participated in Bangladesh's war of liberation. In India’s strategic vision in 1971 an independent Bangladesh freed from Pakistan’s adversarial linkages was perceived to emerge as a friendly and positive neighbor and contributing to overall stability of South Asia.. This is a truism that pervades today also.

South Asia’s New Strategic Realities: Imperatives for Change in Bangladesh Strategic Formulations

Bangladesh’s political and strategic policy establishments need to recognize the newly emerged strategic realities in South Asia which can be re-counted as follows: (1) India is on a upward strategic, political and economic trajectory and has strategically broken out of South Asian confines (2) India today is counted as an emerging global power in the making (3) Pakistan despite four wars it launched against India till 1999 has not been able to impede India’s strategic rise (4) Pakistan’s proxy war against India is no longer a military threat but only a military irritant (5) China’s strategic predominance in Asia or South Asia is no longer invincible (6) US-India Strategic Partnership is evolving into a significant strategic relationship which could impinge on Pakistani and Chinese strategic delinquencies in South Asia, more specially.

Bangladesh’s strategic deductions from the above should realistically arise as follows (1) Pakistan and China cannot provide countervailing power against India for Bangladesh (2) China never militarily intervened in Pakistan’s favour in its wars against India beyond verbal Chinese ultimatums (3) If China could not do it for Pakistan, how can Bangladesh ever hope that China will militarily intervene in Bangladesh’s favor against India.

Strategically the time has come for Bangladesh to review its strategic formulations and strategically invest in a workable Bangladesh-India Strategic Partnership with a strategically solid neighbor than to rely on distant neighbours whose sole interest is not Bangladesh security but as to how to exploit Bangladesh against India.

Bangladesh-India Strategic Partnership: India’s Strategic, Political and Economic Initiatives

Strategic initiatives have been deliberately placed at the head of India’s initiatives towards Bangladesh for the strong reason that like in the evolving US-India Strategic Partnership more speedy progress has been made in military-to-military contacts and strategic exchanges than in the political field.

Beginning with the earlier BJP Government’s enlargement of India’s strategic partnerships, this enlargement should now extend to Bangladesh and cover the entire gamut, namely (1) High-level military-to-military exchanges (2) Joint training and joint exercises (3) Goodwill naval visits and exercises (4) Intelligence liaison (5) Joint military adventure expeditions (6) Annual structured strategic dialogues. This list of initiatives can be enlarged in more innovative ways so as to build trust between the two armed forces.

Political initiatives are required to be taken by India on a major scale to remove the mutual distrust that has accumulated. Some major and dramatic initiatives that needs to be worked out are as follows: (1) Visits to Bangladesh by the Indian President and Prime Minister (2) High level political dialogues to find solutions to existing contentious issues (3) Annual structured political summits (4) Coordination of political action and support in international bodies (5) Scientific, technological and cultural exchanges (6) India should not demonstrate political bias towards any particular political dispensation in Bangladesh.

If India’s foreign policy establishment maintains in relation to Pakistan that India will deal with whosoever is in power than the same yardstick should apply to Bangladesh.

India also needs to mount a sustained and imaginative information campaign in Bangladesh to negate the anti-Indian and anti-Muslim propaganda launched by Bangladesh’s Islamist parties under prodding by Pakistani intelligence agencies. India also needs to expose the diabolical role of Pakistan's intelligence agencies and Islamist Parties to bring about the Talibanisation of Bangladesh to suit its strategic ends. Fortunately, the present Administration in Bangladesh has firmly dealt with the Talibanisation threat in Bangladesh including executions as a salutary measure.

After strategic initiatives, India should forcefully pursue economic initiatives with Bangladesh with twin strategic and political purposes. In this sphere this lead should be delegated by India to India’s captains of industry and businessmen and not left to unimaginative bureaucrats. A joint time-bound economic development plan needs to be worked out at the political level and execution out-sourced to Indian multi-nationals.

Priority areas for India’s economic initiatives should incorporate (1) Infrastructure development projects in Bangladesh with emphasis on East-West Highways and inland maritime services on the Brahmaputra especially (2) Indian investments in joint industrial projects with Bangladesh business people (3) Agro-tech industries development (4) Fisheries development (5) Upgrading Bangladesh's industrial and technical skills.

In short India’s economic initiatives should lay emphasis on economic projects which result in sizeable job-generation within Bangladesh, improve communications connectivity with India and bring about an overall growth in Bangladesh economy.

Bangladesh could earn a lot of royalties from India by permitting East-West Corridor Projects which could enable India to cut down traveling times to its North Eastern states. Bangladesh could also earn sizeable royalties from India from oil and gas pipelines that could traverse through its territory.

With job generation within Bangladesh and royalties would come economic security and prosperity in Bangladesh, alleviate poverty and contribute to social stability.

Here the call has to come from Bangladesh in terms of the extent of India’s economic involvement and integration with Bangladesh economy. India can be expected to be too ready to contribute to Bangladesh's economic development.

Concluding Observations

Bangladesh-India Strategic Partnership is an idea and a strategic imperative whose time has come to implement by both countries.

In South Asia, in terms of relative stability Bangladesh offers more promise than Pakistan. Bangladesh therefore deserves a higher priority attention than Pakistan in terms of strategic and political effort by India's policy establishment, diplomats and the strategic community.

India’s efforts and initiatives to work towards a Bangladesh-India Strategic Partnership should not be allowed to be misread in Bangladesh as an Indian effort to convert Bangladesh into an Indian satellite State.

India’s political history of the last 60 years does not provide any indicators to such Indian inclinations anywhere in South Asia, least of all Bangladesh, where its war of liberation itself was a strategic partnership between Bangladesh liberation stalwarts and the Indian nation state.

(The author is an International Relations and Strategic Affairs analyst. He is the Consultant, Strategic Affairs with South Asia Analysis Group. Email:drsubhashkapila@yahoo.com)