SRI LANKA: Poll Plots Thicken

SRI LANKA: Poll Plots Thicken – Update No. 185

Col. R. Hariharan

General elections in South Asia have all the makings of a Bollywood pot boiler. Being the largest country, India takes the cake where general elections run into many episodes like an afternoon soap.

Sri Lanka, though small, is no less if past experience is any guide. And the plot is thickening the as the main opposition parties the United National Party (UNP) and the Left wing Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) appear to be coming together in achieving a single aim: defeating President Mahinda Rajapaksa's re-election as president. To ensure that they appear to be keen to put up General Sarath Fonseka, the hero of the victorious war against the Tamil Tigers, as their candidate. The reluctant General is probably facing a dilemma of Shakespearean proportions before he makes up his mind to contest.

The Eelam war against the Tamil Tigers has thrown up a lot of heroes– President Rajapaksa, his brothers Basil and Gotabaya, and General Fonseka. Similarly there is a dearth of villains because the war had killed the ‘villains’ who ruled the roost for three decades – Prabhakaran and his lieutenants.

So, political pundits are busy trying to find villains among heroes. Some of them have the essential skill sets for elections - arm chair plotting and alliance management. And rumour mills have been working overtime. International actions are adding their pennies’ worth to muddy the waters further. Given this setting, the General appears to be paying the price for his popularity. His trip to the U.S. to renew his green card status turned into a problematic one, finally graduating into full blown international issue.

Even if the opposition cobble up an alliance for presidential poll it is at best a marriage of inconvenience. Their cheese and chalk differences in ideology, goals, style and ambitions would ensure its break up when they go to parliamentary polls in the first quarter of 2010 after the presidential election. Of course which election would be held first is still the sixty four dollar question.

UNP’S CONDITIONS

The UNP appears to have a lot of reservations in allying itself with the JVP and in putting up the General as common candidate. So it is not surprising that the UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe has spelled out the conditions under which the party would agree to go along with the JVP and support the General. As per his interview to Sudar Oli, published in the Island, the conditions are as follows (own comments are given in brackets in italics):

Common candidacy: The UNP, JVP and the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) have to agree to field a common candidate. [Will TNA agree to the General, essentially a military man who established his reputation by routing the LTTE, as the common candidate? Can the JVP and TNA see eye to eye? Of course in politics anything can happen.]

Abolition of executive presidency: He expected the common candidate to pledge on abolishing the executive presidency. [If executive presidency is abolished the extensive powers enjoyed by the president would be reduced; it could cramp the General’s aggressive style of action.]

Caretaker government: The General has to appoint a caretaker government with Ranil Wickremesinghe as the prime minister. He should make a prior announcement that important portfolios in the caretaker government would be given to the JVP and the TNA. [Can the General feel comfortable in working with Wickremesinghe as the prime minister and TNA ministers when he has major differences with their political views?]

Attitude to Tamil issues: General Fonseka has to clarify certain issues concerning the Tamil people. [These ‘issues’ probably relate to the General’s articulated view on Tamil autonomy and Sri Lanka as the country for the majority Sinhala people.] The UNP leader says the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) should endorse General Fonseka’s clarifications as acceptable to the Tamils. Wickremesinghe also expected the TNA and JVP to have an understanding on this issue. [This is probably to provide a face saving way for the TNA to join the UNP combine and also to ensure the UNP’s Tamil votes are not alienated when it agrees to support the General.]

PRESIDENT’S REACTION

While a political leader might accept these conditions, the General’s political ambitions will have to overwhelm his strong personal views to accept the conditions spelled out by the UNP leader. That is the moot point. Though General Fonseka is still not on cards as a contestant, the President is watchful of the developments. The General is one person who could spoil Rajapaksa’s cake walk victory. So Rajapaksa has become extremely cautious on the issue; he has refused to comment on the General’s political ambitions. To strengthen his alliance, the President is likely to strive hard in closing some understanding, if not alliance, with TNA. To make the job easier, he might offer the TNA an acceptable political package to accommodate Tamil political aspirations as the carrot. The impending SLFP convention could clarify these issues.

The media had been discussing a whole range of structural subterfuges the government can use to dissuade or prevent Fonseka from contesting. But there is problem in believing what the media says.

South Asian elections usually have lots of intrigues, whispers in the corridors, broken promises and some broken hearts, bags of money passing hands, guns and gangsters, fast cars and, I am sure lots of pretty girls, thrown in as incentive to the foot soldiers. And Sri Lanka is no exception. How General Fonseka, the disciplined soldier, would compromise his strong perceptions on what he believes as right and wrong for political support is a question waiting to be answered.

With the election pot boiling pulse rate of politicians have gone up and the anxiety of candidates would also increase when clarity emerges. .However it is the public who will decide it finally when the happy ending comes. Of course it depends partly upon the political script they understand, and to be frank, how much money the winners and losers spend.

Tailpiece: In my last SAAG up date No 184 “Sri Lanka: Importance of being Fonseka” I had said that Gen Fonseka had recommended Lt General Jagat Jayasuriya to become the army commander, superseding seven other generals. Many well informed readers have pointed out that I was wrong. I thank them and apologise for the unintentional error.

(Col R Hariharan, a retired Military Intelligence specialist on South Asia, is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies and the South Asia Analysis Group. E-Mail: colhari@yahoo.com Blog: www.colhariharan.org)