Nepal: Constitutioanl Crisis Averted- Stalemate Continues- Update No. 226

NEPAL: Constitutional Crisis Averted: Stalemate Continues: Update No. 226

By Dr. S.Chandrasekharan.

Just two minutes before the deadline of 28^th May, a resolution seeking amendment of Article 64 of the Constitution was tabled and it was passed at 1.51 A.M. on 29^th of May, giving way to the extension of the Constituent Assembly for another year. The motion was supported by 580 members of the assembly and only five- four from the RPP and a lone independent member opposed the resolution.

President Yadav authenticated the bill soon after, thus averting a constitutional crisis that was looming large.

The interesting point was, that none of the political parties including the Maoists wanted the dissolution of the constituent assembly that would involve fresh elections, though everyone indulged in brinkmanship till late night on 28^th to derive maximum advantage. The end result was that nobody won and the country is back into a "stalemate."

The urgency that was seen in the last day to extend the life of the assembly was over once the bill was passed and the politicians are back into their old ways with the Maoists on one side and the other two mainstream parties on the other blaming each other of "betrayal."

For almost a fortnight, representatives of the three major political parties- the Maoists, the Nepali Congress and the UML met at different five star hotels ( it is still a mystery as to who paid the bills) to come to an understanding to extend the term. The Maoists were insistent that the Madhav Nepal Government should go while the other two major political parties insisted that the Maoists should prove their sincerity in joining the mainstream by dismantling the para military structure of the YCL, and help in the integration/ rehabilitation of the PLA. Only a last minute assurance of K.P.Oli, of UML considered being close to the Prime minister Madhav Nepal that the Prime Minister would resign without delay, broke the logjam and paved the way for a "three point agreement" of the three main political parties for the extension of the assembly. That Prime Minister Madhav Nepal did not resign is another story and I will come to that later.

The three point agreement that opened the way for the extension of the assembly of the three major parties signed by Prachanda, Sushil Koirala and Jhalanath Khanal said as follows.

We are committed to moving ahead with consensus and cooperation to take the peace process to a meaningful conclusion to carry out all the remaining works related to the peace process and to accomplish the historic responsibility of completing the task for writing the new constitution.
Though a significant progress has been made in the constitution writing process, it has not been completed yet. Therefore, we have agreed to extend the tenure of the constituent assembly by one year.
Based on the agreement to fulfill these responsibilities and works as soon as possible, we are ready to form a national consensus government and for that the Prime Minister of the incumbent coalition government is ready to resign without delay.

Some observations on the three point agreement would include-

The wording of the three points is as vague as it could be, thus enabling the three parties committed to the agreement to wriggle out. This is what happened.
There was an informal understanding that the Prime Minister would resign within five days though no mention was made of that in the agreement.
It is not clear whether the three points are organically related to each other. In other words- Is point three of PM’s resignation dependent on point one? This is what Prime Minster Madhav Nepal says and is not resigning. He says - let the Maoists make out an action plan to finish the "remaining works" and then only he will be ready to resign. K.P.Oli who introduced the formulation of PM resigning ‘without delay’ now says that what he meant was that the PM would quit immediately once the Maoists came to a consensus on the integration of their militia and other vital issues mentioned in the package.
What are the remaining works supposed to be? The Nepali Congress clarified on 30^th that this would include a. Integration and Rehabilitation of the Maoists combatants. b. Formation of a commission over disappearance c. State restructuring and truth and reconciliation d. ending the para military structure of YCL and e. return of the seized property.

Surely the so called "remaining works" cannot be completed within five days for the Prime Minister to resign. The Maoists though committed to the disbandment of the para military structure of the YCL appear to be in no mood to oblige the other parties. They are also shifting the goal posts with regard to the integration and rehabilitation of the PLA combatants. Their concept of the new constitution of theirs is diametrically opposed to many of the ideas the other two mainstream parties hold as sacrosanct for a new democratic setup.

The Prime Minister also appears to be digging in and reluctant to resign. The Maoists feel cheated though they themselves are not willing to implement their commitments. All they want now and really now and not later is that the PM Madhav Nepal should resign. To them, the rest will follow. This is important for Prachanda but both the NC and the UML are not willing to oblige.

In this mutually antagonistic positions and in an atmosphere of "lack of trust," a stale mate as we see is inevitable.

One possible way out will be for the Prime Minister Madhav Nepal to resign and lead a caretaker government which in turn could wait till the Maoists take concrete steps to dismantle the paramilitary structure of YCL, make a road map for PLA integration and in the meantime return the seized properties. They are unlikely to do so though at any rate the ball will be in their court to prove their sincerity. If they do not, the assembly can reelect a Prime Minister and perhaps Madhav Nepal could make a come back. But Madhav Nepal is not sure of this as two of his colleagues are itching to become PM in his place!

The two issues - constitution writing and PLA integration are getting more and more complicated. Unless there is a genuine desire of "give and take," even the fresh lease of one more year will not be sufficient.

Speaker Nembang did the right thing in calling the representatives of all the 25 parties on the 2^nd of June and requesting them to reach an agreement on the constitutional issues on which differences persist. He also presented a list of 18 crucial issues that require "crucial" attention. He is also said to have remarked that eighty percent of the drafting of the new constitution is over and that the remaining can be finished soon.

It is not going to be that easy to come to a consensus on many of the crucial issues on the new constitution. Fundamental differences exist on devolution of power, formation of a cabinet, Presidential or Westminster system, the role of Head of state- ceremonial or executive, powers of president and prime minister and their relationship, election of head of state, dismissal of head of state and prime minister, federal legislature, existence and role of opposition, electoral system at the centre and the federal legislature, appointment and dismissal of the judiciary and the role of parliament in these, number of provinces, delineation of boundaries of the provinces and the parliament etc.

The Maoists have released their own version of their constitution that have many controversial provisions that will not be acceptable to other two major parties. Their version includes a people’s democracy (whatever that means), people oriented judiciary ( again different from what we know as independent judiciary), president as executive chief of government and state, fundamental rights that include unemployment allowances, unitary government without an opposition and participation of all the parties, with a state structure of union, provinces and local bodies and special administrative regions, 12 states and 11 constitutional bodies etc.

On the question of PLA integration, the Maoists are shifting the goal posts. The general feeling was that the Maoists will agree to a limited number of combatants to be integrated and the rest rehabilitated in other agencies. The difference was thought to be on the figure whether it is 3000 or equivalent to the number of arms surrendered or more.

Now Prachanda declared on 7^th June that he cannot give any definite figure unless and until he consults all the identified 19,600 combatants.

Barsha Man Pun, the Maoists commander said on 4^th June earlier that the standing committee of the party that met the previous day has decided to propose the formation of a separate force for the entire strength of the PLA now in the camps. He added that he cannot fix the numbers and will not accept the existing norms and standards of the existing agencies.

The Army is further complicating the issue by announcing fresh recruitment to their infantry and this is a clear violation of the comprehensive peace agreement.

What could be the way out? If the intention of the Maoists is to bring the entire PLA in the new apparatus under the party’s influence as a special force, the other parties will not accept any such kind of an arrangement. If the idea is to bring a meaningful and a dignified livelihood ( as mentioned by one of the commentator) then there could be a compromise.

They ( Maoists) will also have to decide on the arms now under the joint control of the PLA and the UNMIN as well as the weapons still in their custody and not accounted so far ( said to have been washed away by flood waters as mentioned once by Prachanda).

India baiting by Maoists continues. The stalemate that has resulted in the implementation of the three point agreement is supposed to be because of India’s interference. It is time the Maoists give up this propaganda stuff and go for genuine accommodation with other two mainstream parties- the UML and the Nepali Congress.

Madhav Nepal could in turn step down and go for a care taker government until the Maoists follow up with their side of the promises.