Nepal:Wrestling for Prime MInister's Crown: Update No. 228

NEPAL: Wrestling For Prime Minister’s Crown: Update No. 228

By Dr. S.Chandrasekharan.

"Wrestling for the Prime Minister’s crown" was one of the titles of an article in the Nepalese media and this aptly describes the wrestling match that is going on for the last three weeks.

In the contest for the Prime minister’s crown, there was one other brilliant comment in an op-ed column in Kathmandu post of 20^th July that is worth quoting.

" Who is the person among Nepal’s political leaders who commands most trust for integrity and visionary thinking most, respect from a wide section of the public for depth and breadth of intellect, moral courage to chart a new visionary path rather than mouth doctrinaire cliches such as revolution, rebellion, liberal democracy, freedom etc.?"

Sadly, the comment concludes that there is none who would fit the bill in Nepal. In this context it has been persuasively argued that none of the present contenders Pushpa Kumar Dahal ( Prachanda) of UCPN (M), Jhalanath Khanal of UML and R.C. Paudel of Nepali Congress are good enough for the post and more surprising, there is a suggestion that perhaps the present Prime Minister Madhav Nepal may continue in the absence of a suitable candidate or even Baburam Bhatarai of the Maoist Group could do!. The latter option will not be acceptable to the wily Maoist chief Dahal, who in one sense created the whole constitutional crisis by pushing himself into a corner by sacking the army chief a year and two months ago.

Dahal alias Prachanda was one person who came very close to fit the prescription given earlier, but he frittered away the opportunity by failing to rise above his party’s interests in one whole year he had at his disposal and when there was general good will towards him and high expectations from the public.

The first round of election took place on July 21 when of the three candidates, Jhalanath Khanal withdrew at the last minute and the other two did not get the required majority to get elected. Dahal the Maoist leader got only 242 seats and the Nepali Congress leader got 124 votes. In the second round that took place on 23^rd, Dahal got one vote less- 241 and Paudel too got one less 123.

So the election for the third round is fixed for August 2^nd, thus giving the parties and their leaders more time to settle the differences, get written and unwritten assurances and some suspect that there could be some horse trading too. It cannot be said with certainty even now whether at all a Prime minister will be elected on that day!

Two days prior to the first round, it looked almost certain that Jhalanath Khanal, the chairman of the UML would become the ‘compromise candidate’ when the Maoists announced that they would support Khanal if their efforts to take over the leadership of the government fails.

But he did not count his own party’s decision that he should not contest unless it was one of a consensus which translated into numbers would mean two third’s majority for the government. (400 seats). This majority is necessary not only for writing the new constitution but also to complete the peace process.

Another problem arose, a few days earlier with the Madhesi groups now suddenly found new fondness for each other and reactivated the "Samyukta Madhesi Front" making up 82 members. This is a crucial and a decisive number for the Prime minister’s election.

The Madhesi groups abstained from both the rounds and now are demanding their pound of flesh and that too in writing. Some of the demands included the implementation of the 22 point agreement entered into on 20^th August 2007 and the 8 point agreement entered into with the government on February 2008, an autonomous Madhes State with the right self determination, 28 percent reservation in all government bodies, army police, education, health care etc etc. While these demands were major ones, there were other demands that were irrelevant to the current crisis like stopping export of stones and sands, stopping deforestation in the name of squatters, distribution of citizenship certificates etc.

The Madhesi Group by acting as "spoilers" have proved themselves to be opportunistic and I am certain that this sudden love for each other will dissipate once a government is formed.

The Maoists have now finetuned its strategy of changing goal posts and interpreting the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) to suit whatever is their latest negotiating position. Now they claim that the return of the seized properties is a very complicated issue and that there should be a commission to examine the issues. Returning the property is not a complicated one if the Maoists really want to return the properties. But the problem is that they do not want to.

It should also be clear by now that the Maoists are not going to dismantle the paramilitary structure of the YCL. I was surprised to see a statement of a senior Maoist leader that claims that the first part of the three point agreement relating to the completion of the peace process was just a preamble!

But there is one area where some progress can be made and that is in the integration and rehabilitation of the Maoist combatants. The non paper produced by UNMIN with a time line on PLA integration on 8^th July, the proposal of the Maoists released on the same day as well as the "concept paper" produced by the NC on 16^th July have many similarities and could be immediately gone into. The first step that needs to be taken is to bring the camps under the control of the Special committee and then separate the combatants to those who are to be rehabilitated and those who are to be integrated. More importantly, the integration/rehabilitation will have to be completed before the new constitution comes into force.

It is difficult to imagine how the whole issue is going to be played out with a new government i in place to complete the constitution in time and take the peace process to the logical end. The ideal would be for a national consensus government with all the three major parties having a stake. The Maoists want to lead the government and their cooperation is needed for completing the tasks. But Prachanda’s leadership is not acceptable to the other two main parties and it is not acceptable to Prachanda to have some other leader from his party to lead the government. Khanal may be able to garner a two-third majority, but this will be the beginning of the end of the UML as a major force and this is what the Maoists want too. The Nepali Congress can manage to get a simple majority but this will not be enough to tackle the two complicated tasks of constitution making and the completion of the peace process.

But what needs to be done any way in any mutually accepted arrangement will be for the non Maoist parties to insist that the Paramilitary structure of the YCL be first dismantled and seized properties returned as a precondition. Promises will not do.