Saudi Arabia – India Diplomatic Overtures: Perspectives

SAUDI ARABIA – INDIA DIPLOMATIC OVERTURES: PERSPECTIVES

By Dr. Subhash Kapila

Introductory Observations

In terms of India’s diplomacy, the month of February 2010 stands out significantly for two notable events, one a failure and the other an appreciable success. India’s diplomatic failure cantered on the dismal outcome of the Pakistan-India Foreign Secretaries Meeting arising from the present Indian Government’s obsessive delusionary policy of peace with Pakistan at any cost. The meeting was foredoomed.

India’s diplomatic success in February 2010 arose from the Indian Prime Minister’s visit to Saudi Arabia last week. It was an appreciable success in terms of India’s national security interests. The key watchword for India in this whole process is that India should not endanger its strategic partnership with Israel nor send wrong signals to Iran.

Is there a linkage between India’s diplomatic failure with Pakistan and India’s diplomatic success with Saudi Arabia? The answer is both no and yes. This Author had asserted four years back during the Saudi Monarch’s visit to India in January 2006 that Saudi Arabia – India diplomatic overtures towards a strategic relationship should not be viewed in Pakistan- centric terms. That assertion stands good today also.

On the other hand, India cannot be strategically and politically oblivious to the significant leverages that Saudi Arabia exercises over Pakistan. It would be realistically true to say that Saudi Arabia enjoys more strategic, political and economic leverages over Pakistan than China and the United States.

The broad strategic vision that Saudi Arabia and India share stood reflected in the Delhi Declaration. The Delhi Declaration was signed by King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz Al Saud’s historic visit to New Delhi as Chief Guest for Republic Day Parade 2006.

The shared strategic vision of the Delhi Declaration 2006 has been progressively carried forward in the Riyadh Declaration 2010 signed by the Indian Prime Minister in Riyadh recently with the Saudi Monarch.

The fact that both Saudi Arabia and India have moved further strategically stands reflected in critical reactions emanating in the Pakistani media. In an unprecedented criticism of Saudi Arabia, an editorial in a Pakistani English newspaper carried the heading “Saudi Arabia’s Double Speak” which was in reference to Saudi statements during the Indian Prime Ministers visit regarding terrorism emanating from Pakistan.

Without resorting to a journalistic reproduction of the Delhi Declaration 2006 and the Riyadh Declaration 2010, this Paper would attempt to add perspectives, very briefly, on the ongoing diplomatic overtures between Saudi Arabia and India. The following perspectives are offered.

Saudi Arabia and India: Mutual Strategic Investments in Each Other
Pakistan’s Centricity in Saudi Arabia and India’s Calculations: The Difficult Task of Reconciling Interests
India’s Strategic Challenge in Middle East: Balancing Relationships with Saudi Arabia and Iran
Pakistan’s Reactions to Saudi Arabia-India Emerging Strategic Profile

Saudi Arabia and India: Mutual Strategic Investments in Each Other

The Riyadh Declaration 2010 is aptly entitled “Riyadh Declaration: A New Era of Strategic Partnership” and marks progress from the Delhi Declaration 2006 which heralded “New era in India-Saudi Arabia relations and constitutes a landmark in the development of increased understanding and cooperation between the two countries” and further “that both countries are developing a broad strategic vision”.

Strategic Partnerships emerge between nations when there is a shared perception of each others strategic significance and a shared perception of the global and regional landscape. To that extent Saudi Arabia and India have reached that threshold.

Strategically today, Saudi Arabia is engaged in a “Look East Policy” with the present Saudi Monarch having made significant political outreaches to China and India as the new emerging powers on the global firmament. India realized it was high-time that it also focused on a “Look West Policy” looking beyond Pakistan.

At the macro-level, one can say that Saudi Arabia’s current investments on India focus on the strategic, political and economic potential of India as an emerging power. India’s strategic investments on Saudi Arabia seems to be three-fold (1) Energy Security (2) Partnership with one of the regional powers of the Gulf Region and Middle East (3) Induce Saudi Arabia to bank her sizeable ‘sovereign funds’ in India’s expanding petrochemicals and infrastructure sectors.

Needless to state that underlying the mutual strategic investments in each other by Saudi Arabia and India are their respective geo-strategic significance in the global strategic calculus.

Pakistan’s Centricity in Saudi Arabia and India’s Calculations: The Difficult Task of Reconciling Interests

For the first few years after 1947 when India and Pakistan emerged as independent nations, Saudi Arabia was not inclined to tilt towards Pakistan. Later, India’s pronounced non-alignment disfavoured by the United States and induction by USA of Pakistan in military alliances in the region, changed Saudi Arabian perspectives.

Currently, with Pakistan’s very survival at stake and Pakistan Army’s free-wheeling terrorism against its neighbours on both flanks, and Pakistan’s propensity to embarrass both friends and foes alike seems to have generated a rethink of Pakistan’s strategic utility to Saudi Arabia’s security interests.

Pakistan’s centricity in Saudi Arabia and India’s strategic calculations operates in two divergent modes. For Saudi Arabia, Pakistan is a sizeable Sunni nation, provides nuclear linkages to Saudi Arabia and been active in promoting Wahabism, though for pecuniary gains from Saudi Arabia.

Pakistan’s strategic significance to Saudi Arabia as an obedient strategic subordinate arises from its location on the Eastern flank of Iran – the major Shia and regional contender with Saudi Arabia for regional pre-eminences.

Pakistan’s centricity in India’s calculations basically arise from its role as an implacable foe of India, the regional spoiler state and a major proponent of Islamic Jihad as an instrument of state policy extensively used by the Pakistan Army against India.

In short, the current status is that Pakistan is a ‘strategic asset’ for Saudi Arabia and for India a “strategic nuisance” which could have been swatted by India, but for India’s delusionary peace fixations.

The task of reconciling these two opposite is difficult on present reckoning. More than India, the strategic imperatives to tame Pakistan rest with Saudi Arabia, if it has to attain its current foreign policy objectives.

Saudi Arabia can do so as it exercise tremendous strategic, political and financial leverages over Pakistan, and which till today Saudi Arabia has not exercised in favour of regional and global stability.

India’s Strategic Challenge in Middle East: Balancing Relationships with Saudi Arabia and Iran

Saudi Arabia and Iran, though both Islamic nations, one Sunni and one Shia, both rich in energy resources, are however contending regional powers for Gulf Region and Middle East predominance.

India has an existing long standing strategic partnership with Iran, through presently under strain due to the present Governments approaches to Iran’s nuclear controversy under Western pressures. India is now currently engaged in evolving a strategic partnership with Saudi Arabia as the other regional power.

In India’s strategic calculations, by virtue of their geo-strategic locations and nett energy-security providers, both Saudi Arabia and Iran figure prominently. How does India balance its relationships with Saudi Arabia and Iran?

The answer lies by borrowing a leaf from the diplomacy books of Russia and China. Both are currently operating profitably in balancing their sizeable diplomatic and security interests in Saudi Arabia and Iran, without a murmur from these opposing regional contenders.

Further, what stands out is that India must stand tall diplomatically as an independent centre of power like Russia and China, without being perceived as a camp follower of the United States when dealing with Saudi Arabia and Iran.

Pakistan’s Reactions to Saudi Arabia-India Emerging Strategic Partnership

Pakistan officially could not be expected to voice concerns on the Riyadh Declaration 2010 termed as “The Riyadh Declaration: A New Era of Strategic Partnership” between Saudi Arabia and India. A Pakistani official reaction voicing concern would have amounted to questioning the policies of Saudi Arabia. Pakistan can ill-afford this when it comes to Saudi Arabia.

However, the editorials and media reactions in the Pakistani media reflect the official Pakistani concerns too.

Reflecting Pakistani concerns, the most vivid was the Editorial (Daily Times, March 2, 2010) entitled “Saudi Double Speak” whose connotations suggests that Saudi Arabia is speaking one language to Pakistan and a different language to India implicit in which are statements likely to be construed as critical of Pakistan.

Others have reflected that a strategic shift seems to be taking place in Saudi Arabia’s policies towards South Asia and wondering what the effect would be on Pakistan by such a shift towards India.

Concluding Observations

Observed earlier by this Author was the fact that Saudi Arabia and India were close geographical neighbours with only the expanse of the North Arabian Sea lying between them. Both Saudi Arabia and India are striking new directions in their foreign policies reflecting the shifting nature of geo-strategic and geo-political realities.

Discernible in both the Delhi Declaration 2006 and Riyadh Declaration 2010 is that both Saudi Arabia and India are engaged in diplomatic overtures reflecting the imperatives arising from the unfolding regional and global strategic landscape.

Implicit in the Saudi Monarch’s political outreach to India leading to the Delhi Declaration 2006 was the reality that Saudi Arabia may have to re-modulate its Pak-centric tilt in its South Asian policies. India can be expected to be accommodative on this count till such time Saudi Arabia exercises its tremendous leverages over Pakistan to tame its confrontational stances towards its neighbours on both flanks.

Point already stands made that India would in equal measure need to fine-tune its Gulf Region policies to balance its postures to have effective relations with both Saudi Arabia and Iran and yet not jeopardizing its crucial strategic partnership with Israel.

Pakistan is certainly rattled going by a survey of media editorials in Pakistan on the Saudi shift. But Pakistan would be well advised to pay heed to what the Pakistani newspaper DAWN reflected: “Pakistan needn’t worry about losing out in a zero-sum game for Saudi Arabia’s attention. The Saudi’s were acknowledging an emerging reality that India is establishing itself as a big regional power.”

In sum, both Saudi Arabia and India in their present diplomatic overtures are making mutual strategic investments in each other. These mutual strategic investments could lead to a more stable regional neighbourhood besides the strategic gains that accrue to both countries.

(The author is an International Relations and Strategic Affairs analyst. He is the Consultant, Strategic Affairs with South Asia Analysis Group. Email: drsubhashkapila.007@gmail.com)