Note no. 224	15. 05. 2004
NEPAL IN CRISIS: The agitation continues: Update 46. by Dr. S. Chandrasekharan Prime Minister Surya Bahadur Thapa tendered his resignation to the King on May 7and this was promptly accepted. For quite sometime, it was getting clear that Thapa had not been able to make any progress in persuading the agitating parties to give up their agitation and join him to form an all party government and that he has to go. Thapa said that he was resigning as he did not want the current political impasse to continue. He was just clearing the decks for the King to initiate another round of talks with the agitating leaders. At the time of his appointment, Thapa was confident that he would be able to get round the two leaders G.P.Koirala and Madhav Nepal and persuade them to let their parties join the government. It is said though there is no confirmation that Thapa had consulted the two leaders prior to his taking up the post and there was a promise that they would consider. Thapa met the leaders quite a few times at their residences and did not stand on protocol. His efforts were in vain. On the other hand, the agitating parties intensified their agitation, brought in students, academics and labour to join the movement. The latest we hear is that the Nepal Government Employee’s organisation has expressed its solidarity with the agitating parties and has threatened to join the stir "if regression is not corrected." The government also made the great mistake of issuing prohibitory orders in Kathmandu and Lalitpur and in arresting the two leaders later. (Updates 44 & 45). Though the orders were withdrawn and all detainees released, the damage had been done. Now the political parties have not only continued the agitation but have also made out a fresh programme of a more intensified phase of their movement against regression. The students have been clashing with the Police almost every day. Burning of tyres and pelting stones at public vehicles have become common occurrences in Kathmandu city. Thus Thapa was caught between the King who apparently wanted tougher action against the leaders of the movement and the intransigent leaders who were not willing to budge and there was every indication that the movement would spin out of control. He decided therefore wisely to leave the scene! Antics of agitating Political Parties: Leaders of agitating political parties welcomed Thapa’s resignation. G.P.Koirala said "we have won the battle," as if Thapa was responsible for the derailment of the constitutional process. Madhav Nepal said that the resignation has "created a conducive environment for dialogue" with the King. Having said that, they made no conciliatory move towards the King for a dialogue. When both Madhav Nepal and Koirala were invited by the King to discuss, they refused to meet him unless all the representatives of the five parties are invited together. The reason for their refusal to meet the King individually was simple. They were not confident of themselves and would not trust each other as each suspected that the other may concede something to the King behind their backs. This is the kind of unity they had exhibited! It looks that while the five parties were more united in their agitation against the King, they were not united in finding a suitable solution for the restoration of the constitutional process. Having refused to meet the King, leaders particularly G.P.Koirala made unreasonable statements which could have been saved for another day. After calling for a nation wide strike on 10th and 11th, Koirala said that the "movement will not stop until the derailed constitution was brought back on track and people’s sovereignty is restored. He made another demand that the "King has to proclaim publicly that the sovereignty lies with the people and that the new Prime Minister enjoys all the constitutional rights and only then will the five parties form the government. The agitating political parties should think of the following: * You can make the King bend but not bow. The King by accepting the resignation of Surya Bahadur Thapa and inviting them for a dialogue has taken the first step towards reconciliation. It is for the parties to return the gesture. * It dies not matter whether they meet individually or collectively for a dialogue with the King so long as they are confident of themselves and of their unity. No sovereign and particularly the present King would accept a "trade union" approach towards resolving the political impasse created not only by the King but by the political parties themselves. Where was the need for former Prime minister Deuba to seek the dissolution of the house from the King without consulting his own party men? Now the parties are agitating for reinstatement of the house! * In our last update (update 45) we had said that the five agitating parties should discuss among themselves, prepare a road map and then meet the King. They are unable to decide as to who should be the Prime minister for the interim period till the elections are held. Eleven months ago, they had agreed that Madhav Nepal of UML should be the Prime minister. But now G.P.Koirala has second thoughts. He does not want Deuba to be reinstated either which would have been the logical thing to do if the constitutional derailment is to be restored. He has been talking only in general terms. It looks that he wants to be the next prime minister! * The law and order situation has not improved. In the incident at Dhading the security forces took many casualties. The disturbed law and order situation has only helped the Maoists who have become bolder and more confident. In the third conference held by the Coordination Committee of Maoists Parties and organisations of South Asia (CCOMPOSA) held between 16th and 18th March, 2004, the Maoist representative Kishore gave the main report and said that 80 percent of the country is under their control and that they were preparing for a strategic offensive. While the figure 80 percent may be an exaggeration, there is no doubt that the Maoists have extended their influence in most of the districts of Nepal. As late as 12th May, they have again reiterated their readiness to discuss peace in a joint conference with the King and the political parties. Earlier on March 18, Prachanda declared that they can hold a dialogue with the government under UN mediation even in the midst of people’s war. While there is no doubt that a solution cannot be found without a dialogue, involving the UN appears to be a ploy to legitimise themselves internationally and to prevent India from getting involved. * The economic situation is no better either. The Aid agencies have said that they are suspending aid in view of the deteriorating law and order situation. In a joint statement by the representatives of Britain, Canada, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Japan and Netherlands, they said that they are suspending aid due to the extortion tactics of the Maoist rebels.
Back to the top Home  | Papers  | Notes  | Forum  | Search  | Feedback  | Links Copyright © South Asia Analysis Group  All rights reserved. Permission is given to refer this on-line document for use in research papers and articles, provided the source and the author's name  are acknowledged. Copies may not be duplicated for commercial purposes.