NEPAL: Current Developments- Moving towards Chaos? Update No. 212

NEPAL: Current developments: Moving towards Chaos? Update No. 212

By Dr. S.Chandrasekharan

Who is in charge in Nepal? This question obviously arises to those who have been following the recent developments.

Consider the following:

INSEC Report:

The Informal Service Centre of Nepal, an NGO dealing with socio political causes, presented a memorandum to the Prime Minister Madhav Nepal on the 10^th of this month which said that a total of 1317 people died after the peace process began. Of these 206 were murdered and 124 were kidnapped in the first 11 months of this year.

After the comprehensive peace agreement, 119 people were killed by the State, 33 by the Maoists, 2 by the CPN (UML), 205 by the armed insurgents and 499 by others.

The memorandum has pointed out that the culture of impunity has continued and human rights violated. The Maoist commitment to return the properties to the rightful owners has not been implemented.

Incidents of forceful donations, kidnapping, beatings and murders are still being carried out.

Unilateral Declaration of autonomous states by the Maoists:

In a blatant violation of both the comprehensive peace agreement and the interim constitution the Maoists have unilaterally declared six autonomous states so far and seven more will be declared in the next few days according an openly announced programme. Earlier, as mentioned in update 211, the Maoists encouraged innocent people in the Kailali area to forcibly occupy forest lands that resulted in a serious law and order situation and death both to the squatters and the Police.

It was only on 3^rd December that Prachanda declared to the press that their plan to declare autonomous states was only meant for publicity and that they just wanted to let the people know that his party is still committed to federalism. ( As if there was no other way of assuring the people!)

What is worse, Prachanda himself inaugurated the Sherpa autonomous state and his General secretary opened the Kirat autonomous state in Khotang in eastern Nepal. Earlier Limbuwan and Kochila states were declared on the 11^th and Seti-Mahakali and the Tharuwan on the 13^th.

Coordinators have been appointed for the autonomous states already declared and others are waiting to take over once the formal declaration is done. Thus, the Maoists have embarked on a parallel administration now openly of what they were doing clandestinely during the people’s war. This is said to be part of the third phase of their agitation.

As the Maoist division of States is on ethnic lines, there is bound to be a backlash as no declared state has a homogenous ethnic identity. Many other factors will also have to be taken into account in a scientific manner and as far as possible, a consensus should be reached. The Maoists are already aware of this but yet wanted to go ahead to create problems for the present government. It is like cutting the nose to spite the face. Already the Tharus are up in arms and other will soon follow and the law and order situation is certain to deteriorate.

At the time when the Maoists were in charge, a commission headed by Dr. Ganesh Man Gurung was formed to look into the division into several states. The Commission never took off thanks to non cooperation of the Nepali Congress and the UML.

Prachanda expressed his helplessness to the other two mainstream parties, in calling off the declaration of the autonomous states on the ground that he is under pressure from his party over the "unconstitutional" move of the President in cancelling the sack order of the Army Chief by the President. This is hard to believe.

UNMIN, Integration of PLA and the New Constitution:

It looks that the UNMIN’s term will have to be extended for the fifth time. It is doubtful whether its services could be dispensed with even after another term!

It also looks that the new constitution is not likely to be drafted and approved before statutory limitation of May 28, 2010. The consequence will be that there will be no constituent assembly, MPs or for that matter the Prime Minister on May 29, 2010 as the interim constitution will dissolve itself the previous day. There will be a constitutional impasse and the way out will be for the President to take over! Again, the Maoists are fully aware of the consequences, once the deadline is over.

The integration of the PLA is another sad story with not a single PLA combatant rehabilitated so far. The Special Committee on supervision, integration and rehabilitation of the PLA combatants has not met for a while.

Some 4000 persons not eligible to stay in the PLA camps are being discharged. The Maoists have not agreed to take any rehabilitation package as they want to integrate them with the notorious YCL whose depredations still continue. There is already a backlash with other political parties having or planning to have a counter force to deal head on with the YCL. The UML has the youth force and it is a question of time before the Tarun Dal of the Nepali Congress also gets aggressive.

Frustrated by the attacks on them, the UML has announced a stir by its party cadres against YCL. Two days ago, the cadres of YCL and the UML clashed with ten persons injured on both sides at Sallyan. The Chairman of UML, Jhlanath Khanal has directed his party cadres to deal with the YCL in a "stern" manner.

Maoist Agitation over "civil supremacy."

Representatives of the three mainstream parties met for the nth time today to find a solution to the ongoing agitation on "civil supremacy" by the Maoists. They could not come to any understanding. All the three parties- the Maoists, the Nepali Congress and the UML are said to be shifting the goal posts. It was thought that a simple resolution in the parliament for amending the constitution to spell out clearly the functions of the President and the Prime Minister would do the trick. But the Maoists now want a clear declaration in the resolution that the President’s action was unconstitutional. This is too much to expect when it concerns the Head of State.

Breach of Protocol by the OHCHR and the Diplomats of Kathmandu:

At the initiative of the OHCHR ( Office of High Commissioner for Human Rights), diplomats of nine countries ( US, EU, UK, Germany, Australia, Switzerland, Denmark, Finland and Norway) visited Bardiya to enquire and interact with the people over the disappearance of over 170 people during the decade long conflict. They did not inform the government or the protocol division of the Foreign Ministry. The local officials were taken by surprise and they offered security to the team by hurriedly forming a security group. But the OHCHR representative refused!

This was a clear breach of diplomatic protocol and the Prime Minister’s office rightly called it as "meddling in internal affairs of the country."

This is what happens when the state becomes weak and led by a mild mannered gentleman Prime Minister. Why don’t these nations try it out in China in Xinjiang or Tibet where human rights violations are said to be common place?

Visit of Prime Minister with a Jumbo delegation to Copenhagen:

Amidst all the problems faced by the country, the Prime Minister led a 43-member delegation to Copenhagen for the summit. Already another 40 member team had left for Copenhagen a week earlier. The delegation included all the three advisers of the Prime Minister, bureaucrats and other ministers. Nepal’s delegation was bigger than that of China and India. What is more, in the summit hall only six seats are allotted for Nepal and the PM will get just three minutes to present Nepal’s case and its plight due to global warming.

Nepal Army Chief honoured in Delhi:

The President of India honoured Nepal Army Chief in an impressive ceremony, conferring on him the honorary rank of a General in the Indian army. The function was attended by the Chiefs of all the three Services of Army, Navy and the Air force of India.

This is in pursuance of a tradition that has been continued for quite some time as a gesture of goodwill towards Nepal and its army.

However, some people in Nepal think that the timing is significant and was meant to show support to Nepal as there is also rumour circulating in Kathmandu that Indian arms aid is being revived. If this is true, it will be a violation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement and the Maoists cannot complain as they have also been doing the same thing consistently for the last few months!

Kathmandu:

There is scarcity of water in Kathmandu. Power outages have been increased to 28 hours in a week. This is a country that has 84,000 Megawatt waiting to be tapped and there has been no major power project for the last 19years!. Nepal only needs to look at Bhutan and see how that country is utilising its water resources for the good of the people!