SRI LANKA: Selling a Soured Dream to the Disillusioned

SRI LANKA: Selling a Soured Dream to the Disillusioned – Update No. 188

Col. R. Hariharan

The overseas supporters of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) have been in disarray ever since the founder leader Prabhakaran and the entire insurgent leadership were eliminated in May 2009. The expatriates who had unquestioningly followed Prabhakaran's orders are now trying to come to terms with the reality of decision making on their own.

They appear to have a major dilemma in deciding the future course of action, particularly as they do not want to carry out an impartial analysis of the LTTE’s course of action in the past. If they had done it, by now its positives and negatives could have provided useful pointers to the direction for taking the struggle back to Sri Lanka. But that would be a sacrilege as Prabhakaran and his leadership continue to be treated as holy cows beyond the pale of public scrutiny.

In the absence of a united leadership to lead them, the pro-LTTE expatriate Tamils appear to have pitched upon ‘referendum’ as the democratic method to find out popular opinion on the future course of struggle. Had they adopted this method earlier, when the war was nearing the point of no return, lives of thousands of youth who perished in the war could have been saved. But unfortunately, that was never an option open to them in the LTTE lexicon.

They held a series of “referendum” first in European countries. The organisers probably knew that if they had carried out a referendum on continuing the LTTE's armed struggle for Tamil Eelam, not many might have voted as it would be inconvenient to remain in their adopted land.. So they appear to have pitched upon the Vaddukoddai Resolution adopted in May 14, 1976. It holds a nostalgic appeal for expatriate Tamils as it represented the united and assertive Tamil political opinion of that time calling for the creation of independent Tamil Eelam. It formed the basis for the Tamil United Liberation Front (TULF)’s overwhelming electoral victory in the general election that followed. It is an irony of fate that expatriate Tamils have to fall back on this resolution after the LTTE had systematically hunted down TULF leaders out of existence. The fact that this resolution was dusted up shows the pro- LTTE expatriate elements have indirectly acknowledged the failure of the way the LTTE conducted the struggle. Of course Vaddukoddai Resolution has been made irrelevant in the course of subsequent history of blood and gore.

The recently conducted “referendum” in Canada was also a part of this exercise. According to Tamil expatriate media (which have turned their colours from the bright red of LTTE to Sri Lanka blue immediately after ‘thalaivar’s death) most of the 48,000 plus people who turned up (out of an estimated 300,000-350,000 Sri Lanka Tamils) voted for the Vaddukkoddai Resolution. Some of the media have dubbed it as a minority vote and hence of no consequence.

It would be incorrect to look at it only from the point of view of total expatriate population. The organisers of the referendum, by and large, were pro-LTTE elements or its fellow travellers. Referendum is important because it provides a barometer of existing potential support for the revival of LTTE. It should come as a relief to the organisers that 13 to 15 % of the Canadian expatriates voted and still subscribed to the notion of an independent Tamil Eelam. This comes even after the LTTE itself had given up hope of an independent Eelam and accepted Tamil autonomy within a federal Sri Lanka when it opted to negotiate the peace process 2002. Of course, the referendum also helps in establishing the legitimacy of organisers as inheritors of the Tamil leadership that fell vacant after the demise of LTTE leadership in Sri Lanka.

However, the referendum would have been more meaningful if there had been an honest soul searching among expatriate Tamils who had supported Prabhakaran. That would have revealed glaring short comings in the way he operated which has now left the Tamil community in Sri Lanka disunited and weak. As this had not been done, the purpose of the referendum would appear to be only to garner expatriate help to revive the old cry of an armed struggle for Tamil Eelam. And that may not come through in the near term as there are neither any takers nor a foothold in Sri Lanka. So it will continue to be in the realms of emotion for sometime unless the revival is helped by Sinhala obscurantists in Sri Lanka.

While tasking the army in the north and east after the war ended, the Sri Lanka government and the security forces appear to have gone on the premise that the revival of the LTTE was possible. So the process of eliminating the LTTE from its internal and overseas roots is going on rigorously. This is evidenced by the Sri Lanka navy’s recent seizure of MV Christina, said to be the largest ship of LTTE’s tramp fleet. Of course chances for LTTE’s revival diminishes as more of its caches of arms and military equipment are recovered and cadres eluding arrest are rounded up and identified. Already 12,000 LTTE cadres of various kinds are in custody.

Tragically the war also displaced around 280,000 Tamils living in areas under the LTTE control. They had to undergo a grim process of screening at the hands of Sri Lanka army. They now face a bleak future as they have lost their livelihood and homes. This is more so in the absence of charismatic and assertive leadership of Prabhakaran.

In a recent interview to the Daily Mirror, Colombo, Dr Rohan Gunaratne, Head of the International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research at Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Singapore, had said the LTTE has been “dismantled” in Sri Lanka. This is probably correct as no worthwhile leader is in the horizon to collect the remnants, marshal the assets, unite supporters and coordinate their activities to rebuild the organisation either at home or abroad. Given this internal environment, the revival of the LTTE within the island does not appear feasible in the near future.

In this context, a recent report of The Times, London, about the formation of a new Tamil militant outfit - the Makkal Viduthalai Ranuvam (People’s Liberation Army) – is interesting but not credible. In an interview of a self styled commander Kones (pseudonym) of the new Tamil militant group claimed the PLA comprised mostly of ex-militants with Marxist ideology and opposed to the LTTE brand of militancy was formed four months back. At present it was 300-strong and it hoped to raise a force of 5000. Sri Lankan Tamil media considers this as a Sri Lankan intelligence ploy politically motivated to keep the Tamil militant threat in the public eye. This may well be true.

However, as Dr Gunaratne said in the same Daily Mirror interview, the LTTE international presents “a challenge to Sri Lanka progress, ethnic harmony, and unity. Future peace in Sri Lanka can only be sustained, if the LTTE is dismantled comprehensively, both at home and overseas.” There is no doubt about it.

The LTTE’s international elements appear to be split into two factions. The “militant faction” led by Norway-based Nediyawan that continues to advocate an armed struggle to pursue the goal of an independent Tamil Eelam. It would like to keep up the memory of Prabhakaran to draw strength.

The “political faction” led by Viswanathan. Rudrakumaran, New York based attorney, wants to carry o on the Tamil struggle politically. In June 2009, LTTE sympathizers and remnants overseas put together an advisory committee for the formation of a Provisional Transnational Government of Tamil Eelam (PTGTE), with V Rudrakumaran as the coordinator, in a bid to keep the quest for self determination alive. It swore to follow a fundamentally democratic path. It opened its platform for those who accepted the tenets of “Tamil Nationhood, a Tamil homeland as recognized in the 1987 Indo- Sri Lanka Agreement, ……and the Tamils’ right to self-determination” as per the 1976 Vaddukoddai Resolution, the 1985 Thimpu Declaration and the LTTE’s 2003 Interim Self-Governing Authority (ISGA) proposal.

Although Rudrakumaran has in his Heroes Day message of November 27, 2009 reiterated the PTGTE would wage “a non- violent political struggle”, it is clear that the PTGTE has close connections with the LTTE international. This is evident from the display of the LTTE’s Heroes Day message 2009 sporting images of Prabhakaran and LTTE flag in the PTGTE website. It is not clear how the PTGTE had wished away three decades of LTTE’s armed struggle which sacrificed nearly 300,000 Sri Lankan lives of all ethnicity, and decided to adopt a non-violent strategy without a critical examination of the earlier strategy. Of course there are also other political contradictions in this stand; but that only shows the dilemma faced by the political faction in trying to talk of peaceful means without disowning the history of Prabhakaran.

Apart from diehard supporters of the Eelam Cause and faithful followers of Prabhakaran, majority of expatriates probably realise that an independent Tamil Eelam would continue to remain a distant dream. So Rudrakumaran’s prescription appears to be pitched to attract support from this majority.

At present Sri Lanka Tamil political parties, including the political conglomerate of the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) are looking for financial and political support from this majority expatriate segment. The expatriate Tamils are divided into small groups with their own personal and political agenda just as the Sri Lankan Tamil parties are. So how they can be convinced to extend support for political campaigns in Sri Lanka remains to be seen.

In this context, the conference of Tamil speaking people under the theme “The role of the elected representatives of Sri Lanka’s Tamil and Muslim population in a process of national reconciliation, reconstruction and reform” jointly organized by the Tamil Information Centre (TIC), the International Working Group on Sri Lanka (IWG) and the Initiative on Conflict Prevention through Quiet Diplomacy (ICPQD) at the University of Essex from 20 to 22 November 2009 is of significance.

More importantly the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) and the All Ceylon Muslim Congress representing the Muslims of Sri Lanka as well as three Tamil parties representing plantation Tamils also participated in the deliberations .The conference hosted by the Swiss Federal Department of Foreign Affairs appears to be only a beginning. It had carefully treaded the common ground, recognising the difficulties in forging unity.

The conference has set the modest goal of committing “to the engagement by all segments of society towards a just and durable political solution” through a dignified, respectful and peaceful process. However whether the well intentioned effort would politically result in concerted action for the promotion of interests of Tamil speaking minorities in Sri Lanka remains a big question mark. This is going to be a long and tedious process as evident from the vertical divide among them in supporting the rival candidates in the presidential poll.

With the Tamil ethnic issue still remaining wide open, it is doubtful whether the expatriate actions as of now would help in resolving the problems of Tamil speaking people in the island. The only way they can contribute would be to strengthen the process set off in the November 2009 conference for a unified movement inclusive of all Tamil speaking people of Sri Lanka. Resurrecting separatism either politically or militarily would require selling a soured dream to the disillusioned. That would be embarking on another self defeating proposition.

(Col. R Hariharan, a retired Military Intelligence specialist on South Asia, served as the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90.He is associated with the South Asia Analysis Group and the Chennai Centre for China Studies. Blog: www.colhariharan.org E-mail: colhari@yahoo.com)

Responses Received from Readers- ( Taken from "Tamil Week".)

What Dr. Gunaratne failed to understand is not the elimination on LTTE internationally, but the accepting the rights of Tamils “nationally” letting them to live peacefully in “nationally” and “internationally” , stop raping tamil women and female children, separating children from parents, assuring Tamils that they are welcome at SL ( list might go long) would bring bring permanent peace to SL.
Then there would not be any need to dismantle LTTE, it will g away. Tamils are peace loving people, remember.

Posted by: Ravi | December 22, 2009 03:36 PM

THank you Col. Hariharan for bringing out this vital discussion.

I hope you will all so add to the indian experience, that former LTTE factions should study carefully how small but influential power blocks very much like the Tamils in Sri Lanka at the time of independence prospered in India, while the opposite happened to Jaffna Tamil groups under the TC, FP, later to be usurped by the overall control of the LTTE.

The powerful elites in India, did not oppose the basic tents of independence, one man one vote, though they had the intelligence to foresee the march of time inevitably eroding some of the privileges enjoyed by the elite castes and those closest to the white masters.

Educated Brahmins class, Business tycoons like Tata and Birla were firmly behind giving massive support to the swadeshi movement, in fact Mahatma Gandhi stayed in the garden house of one tycoon most of the time living his celibate modest vegetarian life weaving his cottn clothing.

In contrast Sri Lanka's powerful elite Tamil groups were vehemently against one man one vote or the independence, any sort of rights to the common man, for the non English speaker to have an iota of control over deciding the matnner national cake is cut. If they loked over the shoulders at Tamil Nadu they would have seen how co-operative the INdian Tamil leaders were, with the national leaders, MGR to Indira, Kamraj Desai to Nehru et al.

It is the LTTE rhetoric of VP and Anton B who took over the crown from GGP / SJVC, in the natural development of the failed failed FP/TC rehotoric which naver addressed their issues to the wider populace of Sri Lanka, who ruined the case for innocent hard working Tamil folks with language of no cooperation, all through the 50s 60s 70s and ending up in war from 71 onwards.

It is great to see today new realism vistas of shared dreams uniting the nation.

Bankrupt LTTE no doubt will continue to sling mud at the resurgent Sri Lanka with fake films of brutal murders, fabricated stories of mass rapes and thee is a significant minority still waiting to ride a wave as NGO inquirers into such events and a smaller number will try their hand at migrating as refugees on the strength of such fabrications.

Western world is wiser now and even the misguided MPs of metropolitan parliaments now accept the bogus nature of 'fast unto death' conducted by London operators last April.

Posted by: Tissa Wije | December 22, 2009 04:29 PM

Dear Mr Hariharan,
Excellent analysis; wishful thinking from an Indian viewpoint. Wish you would do the same with Indian affairs too. It is time India realised that they should leave SL Tamil affairs to the Tamils. India is partly responsible for the genocide aiding and abetting a sinhala government in erasing the ethinic presence of tamils in the east and north of SL. In ia should focus on its social issues, the eradication of poverty, social justice the and eradication of social justice. The LTTE may have lost militarily in the war but it had made great social reforms in the tamil society. India should follow the LTTE's social reform program.

Posted by: Mano Manoharan | December 22, 2009 06:15 PM

Hello Prof.Dayan,
You may spin it what ever way you like but the fact remains that Sarath is going to win on the 26th.Those assassins responsible for the demise the hundreds of Sinhala policemen,Sivaram,Raviraj and Lasantha will be locked up for good and the rest of your buddies will be relegated to political wilderness.He seems determined to sanitize the place.
Please get back to teaching,many of us especially the kids would like to see you as the next Chair of the Department of Political Sciences at Colombo.
Cheers,
Siva

Posted by: Siva | December 22, 2009 08:09 PM

Muslims were never for Eelam and have nothing to do with it hence their involvement in this issue is not required. Islam as a religion is free of all racial or linguistic bias. If at all Muslims should play the role of peacemaker between the two major communities.

Posted by: Muslim | December 22, 2009 09:43 PM

In regards to Canada's poor turn out, this was due to a lack of transparency in the vote. That the voting process was to be managed and monitored by ES&S, a voting machine manufacturer, was not made public by the vote organizers until AFTER the vote. This lead to rumours about who would be managing the vote & how information about those who voted would be handled. The organizers did not respond quickly to media inquiries prior to the vote or provide adequate information on their web site.

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/toronto/story/2009/12/20/tamil-sri-lanka-referendum464.html

http://rjjago.wordpress.com/2009/12/19/tory-mp-supporting-tamil-separatists/

How many Lankan Tamils are in Canada is debatable but I think > 100,000 turn out could have been possible if the election organizers had provided more information on their web site. Most of the people who vote are not die-hard Eelamists or LTTE supporters but rather want to send a message to the Sri Lankan & Canadian Federal goverments that they oppose current misdeeds ( Tissa's jail sentence, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tet9798bcpA ) & 'reconciliation inaction' by the Sri Lankan govt.

Posted by: tmorgan1000 | December 23, 2009 04:10 AM

Dear Col. R. Hariharan, This rehertic of yours is full of anti Srilankan Tamil rather than anti LTTE, and you are trying to advance India's intentions useing this un substientiated and twisted facts. India never ever wished or supported the well faire of Srilankan Tamils.They are the root cause of these state of affairs.
See below what your Foreign Sec has clearly articulated.

" We have a very comprehensive relationship with Sri Lanka. In our anxiety to protect the civilians, we should not forget the strategic importance of this island to India's interests,... especially in view of attempts by countries like Pakistan and China to gain a strategic foothold in the island nation...Colombo had been told that India would "look after your security requirements, provided you do not look around". "We cannot have a playground of international players in our backyard." Indian External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee, 23 October 2008: ---=Real tears from for INDIA.

Hon’ble Members may rest assured that our strong concerns for the safety, security and welfare of civilians caught in the conflict have led us to stay actively engaged to prevent a further deterioration of humanitarian conditions.---= Crocodile tears from India for Tamils.

DEAR COl HARI, STOP YOUR SORDIT PREACHINGS to SRILANKAN TAMILS KEEP IT TO THE INDIANS ONLY.

Posted by: pandaravanian | December 23, 2009 04:57 AM

I am not surprised that this happended in the LTTE because the impenetrable government too, is split now!
We are lucky that Sri Lanka is an island and there is a gap of atleast 32km between India. Otherwise there would have been immense amount of issues with us as and them, like as they have with everyone else who are bordering them!
It's good that Mr. Hariharan has taken an analysis mode, instead of analysis, paranoia and attack mode, which has caused immense damage to our country over the last 30 years.
LTTE is dead now, like every mercenary, ward lord or ransom seeker. There are foolish Tamils who may still fill the coffers of these people but many of them are now free from paying ransom to protect their loved ones. Despite the fact that they are still shamefully kept in camps.

Posted by: Hector Kobbakaduwa | December 23, 2009 06:16 AM

This is like a fiction or wishful thinking of Col. Hariharan.

Previously Dr. Rohan Gunaratne was working for the alleged war criminal Rajapakse regime. This guy is not an independent person and he may have to analyse Sinhala state terrorism and hooliganism that was instrumental in producing the LTTE.

The writer must understand that Indian leaders notably MRs. Indra Gandhi and MGR were provided assistance to the LTTE. LTTE is not the product of Tamils who are hard working, law abiding and want to live in peace.

The struggle for Eelam independence from Sinhala Apartheid regime is far from over. India may need a leader like former Russian President Goberchev to give independence to Tamil Nadu, Andra Pradesh, Kashmir and so on. The Land of great King Raja Raja Cholan is under Hindi dominated mockery and insensitive regime that was against the aspirations of Eelam Tamils.

Most Tamils strongly believe that India was behind or collaborated with the Sri Lankan regime on the genocide of Eelam Tamils. India has stabbed in the back of the Tamils in Eelam and as a result India has lost its credibility.

Posted by: V Siva | December 23, 2009 09:08 AM

The Dec 19 "Referendum" organised by this so-called Coalition of Canadian Tamils is further proof remnants of the LTTE are being isolated by the diaspora
Tamils. To claim "48,481 who voted forn 50% of Lankan Tamils in Canda" is to expose your ignorance in basic arithmetics. This makes the Lankan Tamil component in the Canadian population to less than 90,000 whereas the generally accepted figure is 300,000+ This poll also was held under suspect continues claimed to be "for reasons of confidentiality" The pollster ES&S is not known to many. And the Adam Giambrone they refer to is Chair of the Transport Commission??? This sounds like an Italian name in the Mafia-controlled transport unions here.

Of 5 families within our circles none of them knew of this poll until I told them. Those who voted are clearly hard-core LTTErs brought here by LTTE efforts. They are said to be former collectors, extortionists, gangsters etc., whose numbers appear to be reducing by the day. They are mostly from the lower segments of society in the NEP. The more educated and elitist Tamils in Canada are against the division of the country - particularly now that the Rajapakse Govt is forced to grant the necessary features for reconciliation. General Fonseka is likely to do more - if he wins, as he is expected to. The battle is by a few among those who are in charge of LTTE assets - so far not seized by GoSL. KP seems to have come out with a deal with The Bros to save his skin and all "LTTE sleeper cells" overseas are being named. The overwhelming majority of Tamils in Canada, Australia,USA and Europe want to live in an undivided Sri Lanka provided GoSL grants them their right to run NEP by themselves. This cannot be postponed any longer.

It is time those Tamils in the diaspora - who do not subscribe to the LTTE remnants of today - assert themselves publicly by organising themselves. I am aware they still fear the LTTE gangs/extortionists. The Canadian Police are beginning to get the necessary information from GoSL to remove this cancer among them. No doubt Tamils suffered immensely under Sinhala Govts more so in recent decades but they are not stupid to reach for the out-stretched hands of the present Sinhala leadership for a new beginning.

ISS

Posted by: Ilaya Seran Senguttuvan | December 23, 2009 11:51 AM

Col. Hariharan may not aware that of estimated 300,000-350,000 Sri Lanka Tamils ( Leading Canadian News paper estimates around 200,000 Tamils of Sri Lankan origin) include Children under 18 who are not eligible to Vote in a referendum. According to the Mail’s estimate around 110,000 eligible SL origin Tamil voters live in Canada. It appears that Indian Officialdom worries of this democratic process of Diaspora Tamils more than it had with terror activities of the past.

Posted by: Suresh M | December 23, 2009 03:35 PM

Thanks Col Hariharan for highlighting division within the international LTTE. These international LTTE is representing no one except a minority of overseas Tamil Diaspora. If these overseas LTTE are genuinely interested in the welfare of Tamils in Srilanka, they can help through NGO's. These overseas Tamils have left the country on a critical time for a comfortable life leaving fellow Tamils to suffer. Now it is time for them not to mess with the well being of Tamils living in Srilanka.

Posted by: Kumar | December 23, 2009 05:33 PM

Its very very unlikely sri lanka will solve its conflict be able to reconcile.

99.9% vote for eelam is very good news for Tamils. Far better then we expected. Sri Lanka can't hide its genocide for far too long. India can't also get a way with aiding the killing of tamils.

As long the racist singala people who deny the rights of Tamils exist there will be people to oppose it.

Posted by: Govintha | December 23, 2009 06:45 PM