SRI LANKA: Election hiccups

SRI LANKA: Election hiccups - Update No 189

Col. R. Hariharan

For President Mahinda Rajapaksa last week was not a happy one. Media predictions show a slow swing in favour of the common opposition candidate General Sarath Fonseka in the January 26 presidential poll. Like all poll predictions they have their limitations; but they were enough to disturb the dovecote of Rajapaksa camp. It was also a week of bad tidings for Rajapaksa on many fronts.

General Fonseka increased his chances of garnering more Tamil votes than the President after the Tamil National Alliance (TNA), announced its decision to support him. The TNA arrived at the decision after talking Fonseka though it had not “signed any agreement, we have come to an agreement,” as its spokesman clarified. According to the media, the TNA announcement came after Fonseka handed over a document pledging to address TNA concerns. These include on lifting the four-year old state of emergency, release of all the persons held in detention without any evidence and grant general amnesty to former LTTE supporters and help their rehabilitation.

The issues are close to the heart of Tamils and no Tamil party can really question these concerns. While it has given the TNA a face saving method of supporting the General, whose war record did not carry the new found convictions. But the moot point is how many Tamil votes would it swung in favour of Fonseka based on TNA recommendations. The TNA is a divided house with an estimated 60% of leaders rooting for the General. There is also the prickly but 'minor' issue of Sivajilingam's candidacy. It is an ironic turn that the TNA, accused of suspect loyalties, is now in a position to become the national king maker; but can it do it? That is a $ 64 question even the TNA would be unable to answer.

President Rajapaksa has limitations in making free wheeling pledges to Tamils as he would not like to antagonise Southern Sinhala vote banks. They had stood by him in the crucial run up in the last presidential poll; he could jeopardize their support if he is seen leaning too much in favour of Tamils, who were till recently supporting the LTTE.

However, Rajapaksa dogged in his beliefs took his campaign to the Tamil heartland in Jaffna. His visit to Jaffna came a week after Fonseka’s trip. The President was seen doing all the right things there, starting with worship at Nallur Kandaswamy kovil. Rajapaksa promised all the things he failed to do in six moths of peace after the war: speed up reconstruction and resettlement of 300,000 Tamils who fled from the battle zone only to be incarcerated in internment camps till end 2009. Later, in Colombo while releasing the 14-point election manifesto of the ruling United Peoples Freedom Alliance (UPFA), the President said he would devote the entire second term to address all the key issues.

But to all those who expected the President to clean up his act, these words sound hollow as his regime had shown remarkable insensitivity to not only to ethnic reconciliation but other issues of governance as well. These relate to corruption, lawlessness, rule of law and lack of accountability. However, if re-elected the politically-savvy President is in a better position to act than the General who has no party base. Fonseka as president is likely to be affected by the pulls and pressures of the United National Front (UNF) and the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), who are in an inconvenient relationship with a negative objective. At the same time, if Rajapaksa is elected solely on Sinhala backing, he may have to tone down his “resolve” to solve the Tamil issue equitably.

The defection of Batticaloa Mayor Sivageetha Prabhakaran to the Fonseka camp also probably sent a minor shock to Rajapaksa camp. She is a former secretary of the Tamil Makkal Viduthalai Pulikal (TMVP) who had joined the ranks of the UPFA to become the mayor. Sivageetha is believed to enjoy the support of both the TMVP and the followers of Karuna Amman, currently a minister in the UPFA government and founder of TMVP. Is Sivageetha’s defection a forerunner of TMVP changing its mind on supporting the President? This is a question that would worry the Rajapaksa camp. The TMVP has the muscle to swing Tamil votes in the Eastern Province. And loss of TMVP support would affect the winning chances of Rajapaksa.

General Fonseka has increased his visibility and articulation of his views both in print and electronic media. A growing belief is that the Americans would like to see Fonseka elected to progress Sri Lanka’s human rights and war crimes cases. This belief finds favour with Rajapaksa’s supporters who see a sinister international conspiracy in all this to malign Sri Lanka and tarnish its war record. The ‘conspiracy’ theory gained ground as a response to criticism of Sri Lanka’s human rights record by Germany, Canada, Britain and the U.S. that had gathered mass during the war. Presumably stung by the criticism, the President got cosy with the anti-American league of Iran, Venezuela, and Myanmar. So it is not surprising the escapist mode of ‘conspiracies’ haunt the minds of President’s supporters. But now election compulsions appear to be having their effect, despite 'conspiracies'; Tissanayagam the Tamil journalist sentenced to 20-years imprisonment under draconian Prevention of Terrorism Act for his anti-state writing was released on bail pending his appeal. The court had denied this privilege all along.

To add to the President's cup of woes, the UN special rapporteur on extrajudicial killings Philip Alston has also timed his call for carrying out “an impartial investigation into war crimes” in Sri Lanka on the eve of the election. His call came after getting the Channel 4 video showing summary killing of prisoners by soldiers in January 2009 authenticated by three experts. The culpability of Fonseka, the army commander during the war, in these acts is as much as the President, who is the commander in chief of all forces. However, Fonseka vocal criticism of these actions appears to have been accepted as contrition by those demanding action.

It also curious to see many Tamil expatriates, some with strong pro-LTTE history, supporting the General indirectly. While heir convoluted reasoning is not clear, their financial support to the Fonseka camp could further grease the axles of anti-Rajapaksa juggernaut to move a little more smoothly.

What about the 'Indian influence' that is usually bandied about in Sri Lanka elections? If it is there it is not visible; Sri Lanka appears to have become truly international with American and Chinese influences whizzing past the lumbering Indian elephant.

In this developing political scene, the reported move of anti-Rajapaksa political parties including the UNP and JVP deciding to contest the forthcoming parliamentary election as a new political front - the United Opposition Alliance - is interesting if not significant. According to the media, this front would reportedly contest with the ‘Swan’ symbol used by Fonseka. While that could happen if Fonseka won, what happens if he lost the election? Usually opportunistic alliances lacking ideological convergence never hold up in defeat. They crumble. So it is probably too early to speculate about a united opposition alliance for the parliamentary poll.

Having said all this, who will win the presidential poll? It is difficult to speculate in South Asian “democratic elections.” Usually money power, political arm twisting and horse-trading override emotions in voting. There are enough emotions rooting for both candidates, so the one who turns the head rather than the heart is likely to win.

(Col. R Hariharan, a retired Military Intelligence specialist on South Asia, served as the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90.He is associated with the South Asia Analysis Group and the Chennai Centre for China Studies. Blog: www.colhariharan.org E-mail: colhari@yahoo.com)

Responses Received from Readers- ( Taken from "Tamil Week".)

This election is very unpredictable. Most of SLFPers think that MR is unbeatable due to his popularity and cunning smile and large jaws.
Vincent Churchill was defeated once surprisingly following his war victories.

Our people are now more concerned of their budget than the war victories but none of the candidates are equipped to deliver economic momentum. Sounds both are equally corrupted as well.

Ranil, Somawanse and Mangala are playing with fire or fire power!
Probably JVP will emerge as the opportunistic winner as the modern king maker. LTTE seems to have won already by taking their struggle to international arena as never before.

Buddha/God bless Srilanka in next 6 years immaterial of who wins.
The truth is both are not real!

Posted by: Dananjaya Bandara Dissanayake | January 12, 2010 07:29 AM

Col. Harriharan, Not only Mahina Rajapakse, you too seem not happy of the recent events in Sri Lanka. South block in Delhi may be not happy too, as they become less relevant in SL. It is a fact that TNA (‘mouthpiece’ of dead LTTE?) represents most of Eelam Tamil, and they may have difference of opinion, but as a group they back Gen. Fonseka. TNA leader R.Sampanthan clearly stated the prime reason for backing Fonseka is for regime change. He, or Eelam Tamils have no illusion that any of these tyrants will bring a long lasting political solution to ethnic question, but to put an end to Rajapakse family rule. Very soon, not only TMVP (Karuna/Pillaiyan), but Thondaman too will jump ship. It is hard to predict ‘white’ van Douglas, Tharmalingam Sitharthan

Posted by: Suresh M | January 12, 2010 12:40 PM

Those readers who depend on political analysts - specially the more privileged ones from India with access to the high and mighty there – are somewhat likely to be confused with the Colonel in this piece. In his last essay “..Assessment of trends..” (in Sri Lanka) he emphatically wrote “It would be reasonable to expect the President to win the mandate for a second time” that must have resulted in several at Temple Trees raising the glass in honour of the Colonel. Some commentators – including yours truly – disagreed. Now we find the Colonel taking a cautious u-turn – usually the predeliction of political animals. Readers generally expect expert commentators to come out with their own thing and certainly not hide under “media predictions” This he now concedes shows ”a small swing to General Fonseka emerging” As to the President's visit to Jaffna and the many "goodies" he is supposed to have given, the Colonel fails to mention the much expected relief via restoration of farm land, houses etc under the HSZ. This high point in the Agenda simply did not take place. Some seem to suggest the President left in a huff and was in no mood to
give the Jaffna people this much looked-forward-to “concession” that is now in the Supreme Court. As to the comment GeneralFonseka has no Party and, therefore, to speculate he suffers a weakness now that he has no base, I submit this is more a strength to the General than a weakness. He is quite free of the impediments of functioning under the limitations of Manifestos. In his list of “Cosy” countries why the Colonel left out China is perplexing. By the way the expression used referring to India in Lankan political circles is not “influence” but “Indian interference” that the Colonel seems shy to admit.

Anyway, no problem. He has his methods of analysis and we have ours. Jan27 will make things clear including if the Tamil diaspora's
"convoluted reasoning" - as the writer somewhat ungraciously puts - was sufficiently well founded.

ISS

Posted by: Ilaya Seran Senguttuvan | January 12, 2010 12:45 PM

“he could jeopardize their support if he is seen leaning too much in favour of Tamils, who were till recently supporting the LTTE”

At least, Col Saab agrees that Tamils support LTTE. Good to hear from his own word.

“What about the 'Indian influence' that is usually bandied about in Sri Lanka elections? If it is there it is not visible;”

Some medias are speculating that Sivajilingam is planted by India in order to divert Tamils vote from Sarath Fonseka. If it is true, presence of India is very visible.
Over all Col Saab wrote a good article.
When are you going to divert your attention to North of India? China is capturing India’s land. ???!!!
It looks like when finally India begins to control neighbours, it might have lost the control on its won territory.

Posted by: Ravi | January 12, 2010 01:33 PM

President Rajapaksha himself didn't expect a tight race when he decided to fire the shots two years earlier.He wanted and expected the UNP horse Ranil which has taken enough beatings from inside and outside thanks to Rajapaksha manoeuvering,disloyal colleagues and needless to say,Ranil's many weaknesses.MR did to UNP what UNO and the west did to Iraq before invation.Punishing the country for more than a decade with many sanctions and paralyze it before invation.Invation happened over a starving nation.Nobody should forget the role played by LTTE in making UPFA life much easier through the elimination of three giant leaders of UNP which caused a leadership vaccum in the party. UNP didn't pull together after that.Another significant factor,Bandaranaike family dynasty came to an abrupt end with the retirement of Chandrika which
also brought MR to the arena.Change of Bandaranaike dynasty was a fresh breath to SLFP and a new hope to it's party supporters islandwide.All these new domestic
twists and turns made a strong presence of a new leader from SLFP,like Ranil for UNP,there was a Mahinda for SLFP who could'nt have dreamt of leadership if Anura was popular.Why all this now? This will help measure the real strength of MR.When I said "giant" leaders of UNP,I really meant some of their behaviours towards their opposition members in parliament.Notably the defence of Sirimavo's civic rights debate by Gamini Disanayake,was unprecedented and such was the beauty of preparing oneself for future leadership by showing respect and giving protection to the most important opposition leader. Can we say the same to MR?MR was planning to win over a lame horse.It's high time MR must be put under a miroscope.Again,it's LTTE that is holding this election and like it or not Tamils might choose both the winner and loser.

Posted by: muzammil | January 12, 2010 03:03 PM

Col,
The lumbering elephant is way back in the race and the red dragon is fast making Lanka its "vasal state".

India once had LTTE as its ally and have been dictating terms to lanka for the past 30 years. Now it can only muster the services of pathetic Sivajilingam! lol.

At Nandi Kadal lagoon,in May 09, the biggest causality was, "Indian influence in Lanka" not the LTTE or VP.

The Tamils of Sri Lanka have decided to "fall at the feet of the enemy, than fall at the feet of the witness" (satchchikaran kaalil viluvathai vida sandai karan kallil villu).

The officials in the south block who were bribed by Lanka are also partly to blame for India's current sorry state viz-a-viz lanka.

Posted by: punchi putha | January 12, 2010 08:49 PM

Why don't writer poke is head in Srilankan affairs than Indian affairs. Would he able explain about Telugana issues for reader like.

Posted by: Telungana | January 12, 2010 09:58 PM