NEPAL: Maoists Make a tactical Shift in their Campaign on Civil Supremacy: Update No. 218

NEPAL: Maoists Make a Tactical Shift in their Campaign on Civil Supremacy: Update No 218:

By Dr. S.Chandrasekharan.

The Standing Committee of the Maoists decided on 3^rd February to focus on completing the peace and constitution making process as opposed to their earlier stand of intensifying their agitation for a "decisive people’s" revolution.

The fifth phase of their agitation will be a soft one and emphasis will be on mobilisation of people on days like People’s War day, Martyr’s day etc.

The standing committee took three major decisions:

First- The emphasis will be on reaching out to people to ensure the completion of peace and the constitution writing process.

Second: The party will continue to emphasise civilian supremacy and national independence. The agenda would continue to be a national unity government- but this will not affect the peace process ( hostage to peace process?)

Third: PLA Integration and Constitution writing will go together.

Prachanda explained to the media that on point three, the first cannot happen before the second. This means that both will have to be done together and not in sequence as demanded by the parties of the ruling coalition. Prachanda also demanded that democratisation of the army should also be done simultaneously.

There had been intense debate in the standing committee on the course of the struggle for civilian supremacy. In what they themselves described as a "two line struggle," apparently the line taken by Dr. Baburam Bhattarai prevailed.

There could be many reasons for the tactical shift.

The first of course is that having made the maximum mileage in state wide strikes in the four phases, it is time for them to consolidate and not go for street wide protests again (Strike Fatigue?)

Second, having assessed that two thirds of the population are with them, it is time to go for constitution making within the time limit and succeed in getting a clear majority to run the government on their own.

Third, there was the fear that a revolution as proposed by senior leader like Kiran may succeed, but then there would have been an equal danger of a counter revolution emanating as mentioned by Prachanda himself.

Fourth, if the present interim constitution lapses by end May and if there is no new constitution in place, there is every possibility of the Maoists losing their momentum and the advantage they have at present. They were particularly upset over an article written by the legal adviser to the President recently, wherein the latter had said that if the constitution is not written on time, power will automatically go to the President.

Fifth, there is the fear of India too that it may interfere once there is a vacuum in the political process. Bhattarai made a point while referring to the so-called Indian interference that "when you squabble within your house, then your neighbours will take advantage."

The fourth phase of agitation was entirely directed towards India and the Maoists feel that they have succeeded in mobilising the people and enhancing their awareness of the need for preservation of their national independence.

Anti Indian rhetoric continues and the party has decided now to obstruct all the projects where India is involved. This includes the upper Karnali, Arun III and West Seti. The Party initially feigned ignorance but now has come out in the open. Narayan Kaji Shrestha has declared that they will shut all the three projects as these violate the "rights of local people." -( real reason- Indian companies are benefitting)

These developments should not mean that there are serious differences between the hard liners and others among the Maoists. Their objective is the same whether it is Prachanda or Kiran or Babu Ram Bhattarai. What the developments would mean is that the soft line suggested by Bhattarai has succeeded for now and nothing more.

The present agenda of the Maoists appears to be in sequence 1. To establish a "civilian" democracy 2. Complete the peace process and write the constitution in time. 3. Have a national unity government and led by them if possible.

It is almost certain that the Maoists would not like to complete the peace process and the integration completed under the present government. A unity government with or without their leadership will be their goal for the present.

Viewed in this context, the PLA integration process will also get speeded up. The Maoists without much assistance from the present government have discharged all the non combatants from the camps. G.P. Koirala who was silent all this time, has now conceded that he and Prachanda during his days of prime ministership had agreed to take 3000 to 5000 PLA combatants into the security setup. Therefore, the present Special Committee on integration and rehabilitation of the Maoist combatants may get some cooperation from the Maoists if the figures or near about these, are accepted.