Paper no. 1204	27. 12. 2004
JAPAN’S REVISED THREAT PERCEPTIONS AND MILITARY UP-GRADATION PLANS: An Analysis by Dr. Subhash Kapila  Introductory Background:  The Japanese government approved on December 10,2004, the following two documents covering new plans for Japan’s national security and defence planning: National Defense Planning Outline: It is a 10 year blue print, which provides guidelines and directions for up-gradation of Japan’s military capabilities. Military Defense Build up Plan (2005-2009): Lays down specific targets to be achieved over the next 5 years in terms of reorganization and acquisition of weapon systems and equipment. A detail preview of these plans and significant raising of the Japanese military profile was covered in this author’s paper “Japan’s Assertive Approach in its Military Profile” (SAAG paper no.1121 dated 17-09-2004).  It is therefore not the intention of this paper to focus on details, but to analyse the significance of Japan’s revised threat perceptions and military up-gradation.  Japan’s Revised Threat Perceptions: During the Cold War, Japan’s threat perceptions focused on the former Soviet Union. In line with this Japanese defense postures focused on the military build up of the Northern Island of Hokkaido as a main base for countering a possible Soviet threat, in terms of army and air force assets. The Japanese Navy in conjunction with the US Navy was tasked for preventing the break-out of Soviet Naval forces from the Vladivostok area into the Western Pacific.  In the post-Cold War era, Japan seemed to be diluting the Russian threat in a graduated manner and hinting that China was emerging as a major threat in the region.  The new “National Defense Programme Outline 2004” (NDPO) reflects Japan’s changed security environment in the nine years that have elapsed since the last NDPO was issued.  The new NDPO significantly revises Japan’s threat perceptions. In 2004 Japanese security calculus, China and North Korea emerge as significant threats.  The China Threat Perception:  The ‘China threat perception’ of Japan can best be illustrated by quoting from a XINHUA news dispatch which stresses that: China along with North Korea have been singled out as a major threat. Japan for the first time has named certain countries as a major threat. Japan has now stressed that the modernization of Chinese armed forces need close scrutiny by Japan. Japan has further stressed that China is engaged in strengthening its military capabilities to deter USA’s military intervention in Taiwan Straits. Japan also views Chinese military build-up as leading to China’s emergence as the greatest military power in the Asia Pacific in the future. In an earlier report, a Japanese 10 member advisory panel to Japanese Prime Minister on security issues had recommended that China be treated as a major threat by Japan.  Japan’s threat perceptions from China arises from the possibility of the following conflictual scenarios: US-China armed conflict over the Taiwan issue. Japan’s security commitments with USA will draw it into this conflict. Japan’s disputes with China over territorial issues  (Senkaku Island) and ocean resources. China may conduct illegal moves to secure its interests in the East China Sea. Japanese threat perceptions get fuelled by Chinese nationalists landing on disputed Islands and the surreptious movements of Chinese submarines in Japanese waters.  That the Chinese threat perception weighs heavily on Japan can be seen by the following manifestations: Japan is engaged in a Southward shift of its armed forces form the North. Japan is upgrading airbases on islands in proximity of Senkakus and Taiwan e.g. Shimoji Shima Island. Japan is doubling its air-refueling capabilities for its extended Southern coverage. Japan is doubling its air transport fleet. The North Korean Threat Perception: Japan has characterized “military developments in North Korea (DPRK) as a serious destabilizing factor of the region”. This basically arises from North Korea’s  nuclear weapon’s programme, its IRBM capabilities and the missile tests flights over Japan sometime back.  The above developments have even persuaded the most diehard Japanese pacifists to consider Japan’s military up-gradation.  To cater for the North Korean threat contingency, Japan and USA have already finalized OP PLAN 5055- a joint operational plan to provide contingency actions in the event of emergency in North Korea.  It is being said that NDPO 2004 is also predicated on the above OP PLAN 5055.  Japan’s Threat Scenario’s Covered in NDPO: The NDPO stresses that Japan must be prepared to meet the following scenarios: Ballistic missile attacks. Terrorists attacks Invasion of Japanese remote islands. Intrusion into Japanese waters by armed naval vessels. Large scale disasters. To cater for the above scenarios the NDPO caters for: Enhanced joint staff planning of joint operations. Creation of Rapid Development Force groups Upgrading and expansion of AEGIS weapon systems equipped Japanese Navy ships. Increased air-transport lift capabilities. Japan’s Plans for Missile Defence and Offensive Missile Capabilities:  Japan was already engaged with USA in the development of a Theatre Missile Defense System (TMD). This involves development of TMD systems aboard Japanese Navy ships along with ground deployment of advanced PATRIOT anti-missile systems.  Significantly, the Japanese government is said to be seriously considering the research of long-range precession missile technology in the draft MDP (2004-2009). It is proposed that such missiles be developed which can attack overseas targets including ballistic missile sites of the adversaries.  United States-Japan Defence Cooperation and Integration is the  Mainstay of Japan’s Military Up-gradation Plans: United States-Japan defense cooperation and greater integration of upgraded Japanese military capabilities with United States military operation plans seems to be the mainstay of Japan’s NDPO (2004). A sampling of statements to this effect from various Japanese documents and sources are quoted below to highlight this aspect: “NDPO calls for Japan-US Security Treaty set-up to be strengthened and for Japan to share roles with USA in order to deal with emerging threats and diverse developments including WMDs and terrorism.” “ The main task of Japan’s Self  Defense Forces is to contribute in improving the international security environment besides “defending Japan”. “US military presence is essential in order to maintain peace and stability in Asia Pacific.” “Basic plan calls for Japan’s pro-active participation in strategic concert with USA. “Our current understanding is that peace of the of the world is the peace of Japan. We will play an active role in the international order.” “ Japan will take the initiative in strengthening a strategic dialogue with USA and strengthen Japan-US security arrangements through cooperation in BMD and so on.” These new Japanese plans lay the groundwork, it appears, for a more enhanced integration of Japan-US strategic efforts and operational plans for Asia-Pacific security.  Concluding Observations:  Japan’s military up-gradation should not logically raise any alarms. It needs to be viewed in the following perspectives: Japan as a prominent economic and political player on the global scene needs to have the military wherewithal to protect her national security interests,  and also to contribute militarily to the international community’s efforts to maintain global peace and stability. Japan’s military build-up is in the interests of  maintaining an effective balance of power in East Asia. In terms of Japan’s revised threat perceptions focusing on China and North Korea, Japan does not owe any apologies to anyone. China’s military up-gradation and propensity to use force cause concerns. North Koreas as a “failed state”  with a nuclear arsenal, courtesy Pakistan which also is a failing state de-stablises East Asia. If Japan today is considering offensive missile capabilities, then China and North Korea are to be blamed.  Japan has no options but to go in for a greater integration of its military up-gradation plans United States operational plans for the Asia-Pacific. No longer can Japan confine itself to a  reactive defensive posture.  Japan’s Director General of Defence Agency reflects the above when he says: “ From a deterrent force to a responsive force, that is the future direction of our defense posture.” These may be the first stepping-stones towards Japan’s future independent defense capability.  (The author is an International Relations and Strategic Affairs analyst. He is the Consultant, Strategic Affairs with South Asia Analysis Group. Email drsubhashkapila @yahoo.com)
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