Turkey – India Strategic Partnership: The Indian Imperatives

TURKEY – INDIA STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP: THE INDIAN IMPERATIVES

By Dr. Subhash Kapila

Introductory Observations

Turkey and India endowed with significant geo-strategic and geo-political importance in their respective regions have emerged on the threshold of the 21^st century as regional powers of note. Turkey and India both possess considerable attributes of power in terms of powerful Armed Forces, expanding economies and so also an expanding industrial infrastructure. This invests Turkey and India with significant leverage both within their regions and beyond their regions facilitated by global powers investing strategically in their potential strengths.

Turkey and India’s discovery of each other was held back by the Cold War strategic calculus which put Turkey at considerable disadvantage in relation to India. Turkey as an active member of the Western Alliance led by the United States was brought into a proximate systemic relationship with India’s ‘beite noire’ Pakistan which also was then a staunch US ally. The Pakistan factor kept Turkey and India at a respectable distance.

The end of the Cold War and more specifically the 9/11 developments changed the global and regional strategic landscapes significantly. The regional security environments of both Turkey and India underwent considerable changes strategically. Terrorism- generated turbulence and strategic uncertainties created new challenges for both Turkey and India.

The foreign policies of both Turkey and India adopted newer hues to grapple with the new emerging strategic realities. Turkish and Indian foreign policies started breaking out of their traditional moulds. Turkey while still remaining a staunch United States and Western ally started adopting more independent stances including initiatives for more cooperative relations with Russia. India on the other hand shifted away from its idealistic and delusional fixations with non-alignment. India today while maintaining its traditional strategic partnership with Russia is in the process of evolving a significant and wide ranging US-India Strategic Partnership.

In this process Turkey and India have taken the first tentative steps for more frequent high level exchanges with both nations signaling that there is an earnest desire to establish a more substantive relationship, explore strategic convergences and build on complementarities that are available.

In the Turkish power elite circles there is a greater consciousness of India and a desire to discover how both Turkey and India can cooperate with each other in a more active manner. The Pakistan factor no longer operates in policy attitudes towards India.

Turkey’s interest in India was vividly brought home to this Author during his interaction in Istanbul in December 2007 with the leading lights from Turkish academia, top business leaders, media persons, retired military officials and parliament members. The Author was invited to address an “India Day Conference” on the subject of “India’s Foreign Policy Challenges Ahead”. The Conference was jointly organized by the two leading universities of Istanbul and sponsored by Turkey’s apex business federation TUSIAD.

India’s interest in Turkey today is more noticeable at the people’s level with sizeable influx of Indian tourists visiting Istanbul and it becoming a favorite locale of film shooting by Indian film makers.

At the initial stage itself it needs to be recorded that while attempting to establish a Turkey-India Strategic Partnership the imperatives are far more applicable to India than Turkey. Presently, other than Afghanistan, Turkey does not seem to have visible strategic interests in South Asia, South East Asia and East Asia.

India relatively has sizeable strategic interests in West Asia, Central Asia, Caspian Region and in Europe. In all these regions Turkey has a long standing influence and enjoys certain leverages which India could enlist through a strategic partnership.

In the overall perspective, it should be a natural strategic urge for both Turkey and India to reach out to each other as rising powers likely to play an increasing role in global affairs. Turkey should no longer be considered as an appendage of the United States. It is today emerging as an independent actor. India could consider adding Turkey to the informal grouping of Brazil, South Africa and India.

The case for establishing a Turkey-India Strategic Partnership as an important Indian imperative is examined in this Paper under the following heads:

Turkey’s Geo-strategic, Geo-political and Geo-economic Significance
Turkey’s Significance in India’s Strategic Calculus
India’s Significance in Turkey’s Strategic Calculus
Turkey and India: The Contemporary Strategic Convergences

Turkey’s Geo-strategic, Geo-political and Geo-economic Significance

Geo-strategically, Turkey is a “pivotal state” and a “bridging state” which connects three continents. Turkey enjoys an influential location and position in the Middle East, Caspian Region and Central Asian Region.. Turkey also exercises considerable influence in European affairs, in the Balkans, the East Mediterranean Region, Aegean Sea Region, Black Sea Region and the Caucasus. It sits astride the crucial Straits linking the Black Sea with the Mediterranean Sea.

Geo-strategically, by virtue of its pivotal location, Turkey has figured high in the United States and NATO’s strategic calculus, earlier as the Eastern Flank defender of NATO and presently as an important player in NATO’s ‘Out of Area’ military operations extending to Afghanistan. After the United States in NATO, Turkey has the distinction of being the next most powerful military nation. Turkey’s prominent geo-strategic location imparts to her a considerable geo-political importance and moreso in the post 9/11 phase in the regions stated above.

Geo-politically, Turkey also shines out significantly as a stable, democratic and moderate and more importantly a “secular” state, despite being a predominantly Muslim state. As one researcher puts it “Turkey is no longer a dependent appendage of the West, but a partner offering an important example of how a secular democracy can function as a Muslim majority nation with a liberal economy”.

In view of the above it can be fairly stated that Turkey as a powerful Muslim nation presents an alternative to the Islamic fundamentalist phenomena sweeping the Middle East.

Geo-politically Turkey’s significance also needs to be measured in terms of it being the leader of Turkic-speaking ethnic world numbering 200 million concentrated in Central Asia, Caucasus and the Balkans.

Geo-economically, Turkey has a functional market economy with annual growth rates of 6-7%. Foreign direct investment in Turkey is growing due to investors confidence in its political stability and large scale privatization of industry.

The European Union is Turkey’s largest trade partner and though Turkey has not yet been admitted to the European Union, it stands economically integrated with the European Union for all practical purposes.

Geo-economically, Turkey needs to be considered as the “economic gateway” to Europe, Middle East, Caspian Region and Central Asia.

Geo-economically, Turkey’s significance is rising as for strategic and political reasons new energy pipelines from Caspian and Central Asia are being planned to traverse Turkey to Europe as an alternative to the Russian pipeline grid in the North.

A former Senior Adviser to a President of Turkey sums up in a strategic overview Turkey’s comprehensive strategic significance, in the following words: “Any architecture (in Turkey’s extended neighborhood) whether strategic, political or economic cannot be realized without Turkey’s contribution.”

Realistically, the above statement cannot be considered as an over-statement.

Turkey’s Significance in India’s Strategic Calculus

Turkey’s significance in India’s strategic calculus can best be measured in relation to Turkey’s “Grand Strategy” in the evolving new world order and the major trends assessed of Turkey’s foreign policy directions in the 21^st Century. Within the matrix of these factors, can best be examined the Indian imperatives that exist for a Turkey-India Strategic Partnership in the 21^st Century. In other words, how does Turkey’s strategic significance synchronize or enmesh with India’s strategic interests. In terms of Turkeys “Grand Strategy” a Western scholar specializing on research on Turkey makes the following points which needs highlighting:

“Turkey stands at the threshold of all major trends within its neighborhood and actively seeking to harness its geo-strategic and geo-political assets.”
“Turkey is increasingly growing into a powerful actor internationally and regionally.”
“No country since the end of Cold War has seen its position and role so quickly transformed as Turkey in the last two decades.”
“Turkey’s geography has not changed but international focus on Turkey’s regional neighborhood has changed.
“Turkey’s global role has shifted from a Western geo-strategic military deterrent to an exemplary model of a Muslim majority, secular and democratic nation.”
“Turkey has expanded her horizon to cover Middle East, Central Asia and Europe.”

In terms of Turkey’s foreign policies in the 21^st century, a Paper in the Journal of International Affairs in 2000 forecasted the following trends which appear to continue:

“United States will continue as Turkey’s primary ally”
“Moscow-Ankara potential for cooperative relations looks good.”
“Turkey’s integration with Europe open to speculation but full membership with the European Union will eventually come.”
“In the 21^st Century Turkey will be a medium range regional power at the centre of European Union affairs.”

Taking the two sets together, the major strategic deductions that can be drawn about Turkey in the 21^st Century are as follows:

(1) Turkey is set to emerge as a medium level power in global affairs by virtue of its regional power status (2) In its entire extended Islamic neighborhood Turkey stands out as model of stability and democratic secularism (3) Turkey figures significantly in the strategic calculus of all global powers as its geo-strategic and geo-political assets confer strong leverages which the global powers can make use of.

India’s imperatives for a Turkey-India Strategic Partnership need to be necessarily based on the major strategic deductions drawn on Turkey’s significance and how can they contribute positively to India’s strategic aspirations and strategic objectives.

The above needs to be viewed at three levels of geo-strategic, geo-political and geo-economic considerations which form the three pillars on which strategic partnerships are determined today.

The geo-strategic analysis of Turkey and India in terms of their respective strategic aspirations and objectives suggests the following: (1) Turkey and India are regional powers with aspirations of playing a bigger role in global affairs (2) Despite any differences with the United States at the regional level, both Turkey and India can be said to realistically be considered in the United States strategic orbit (3) It necessarily follows that some sort of strategic convergence and complementarity tentatively exists and likely to become more pronounced. (4) Lastly there are no strategic issues which divide Turkey and India and nor are there any competing strategic interests between the two even in the areas tentatively defined as “India’s strategic frontiers”.

Geo-political considerations seem to outweigh geo-strategic considerations in India’s policy establishments preferences as no hard strategic decisions are required. In this field, Turkey offers more significant and substantial advantages to India, if both forge a meaningful overall strategic partnership.

Geo-politically, India in the pursuance of its global aspirations is making concerted efforts to cultivate political influence in the Middle East, Central Asia and the Caspian Region. India and the European Union have established an institutionalized EU-India Strategic Partnership. India like Turkey has a substantial relationship with Israel. The Pakistan factor today does not exist as an over-riding determinant in Turkey’s South Asian policies.

Politically, Turkey has a long standing influential standing in these regions as opposed to India. With no divisive political issues separating Turkey and India, both stand to gain by developing a complementarity of political interests in the stability of these vital regions.

In the overall complexion of India’s West Asia geo-political policies it should be realized that Turkey is a far more important comprehensive strategic power in West Asia than Iran, Saudi Arabia and Egypt. Further India’s so-called friends in West Asia are all in the “Southern Tier”. Turkey as a major power in West Asia and in the “Northern Tier” of the region, coupled with its close ties with Israel presents greater imperatives to India for placing Turkey as its “prime strategic partner” in West Asia.

Turkey’s geo-economic significance stands already highlighted in the earlier part of this Paper. The economic advantages that would accrue to India in terms of economic collaboration, joint projects and joint investments in the regions which are of common interest to both countries needs no further elaboration.

Turkey presents the most compelling imperative for India to develop a strategic partnership in the energy security field. India is in the process of investing strongly in the Central Asian and Caspian Region energy resources and exploration. For strategic and political reasons, USA and the West are involved in developing a new energy pipeline grid in the South to traverse Turkey’s territory both to Turkish sea-terminals and also further alignments into Central Europe. This is to reduce West’s reliance in the northern Russian pipeline grid to Europe.

The new pipeline grid traversing Turkey offers better energy security prospects to India than reliance on the proposed Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline or the Turkinmenstan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India pipeline. Turkey and India are already said to be in discreet discussions for a pipeline from the Caspian Region to Ceyhan port on Turkey's Mediterranean coast. From Ceyhan an under-sea pipeline will go to Israel. Within Israel the pipeline will be overland to Port Eilat from where India's supertankers could pick up oil without traversing through the Suez and Red Sea chokepoints.

India’s Significance in Turkey’s Strategic Calculus

India’s significance in Turkey’s strategic calculus has to be viewed at two levels, namely (1) The timing of emergence of India’s significance in Turkish policy establishments formulations and (2) India’s own intrinsic strengths contributing to a global noticeability of its ascendant rise towards a global power status.

India’s forging or evolving the “US-India Strategic Partnership” in 2000 between President Clinton and BJP Prime Minister A B Vajpayee heralded the beginning of a more intense relationship with Japan and Israel. The same can be said of the commencement of India’s figuring in Turkey’s strategic calculus. From the Indian side the same be said likewise. Is it not a coincidence that Indian Prime Minister Vajpayee’s visit to Turkey five years back took place at about that time.

In terms of India’s intrinsic strengths which impelled India’s emergence in the global strategic consciousness, the 1998 Nuclear Weapons Tests were a strong determinant. It heralded that India had strategically arrived and coupled with its sustained economic growth was on an ascendant power trajectory.

India’s significance in Turkey’s strategic calculus arises from these two factors, namely, India’s strategic shift towards the United States and the West, coinciding with Turkey’s own policy preferences and secondly India’s emergence as a rising power with comprehensive strategic clout.

So one could say that in the overall analysis of the imperatives in the Turkey-India equation for development of a Turkey-India Strategic Partnership, the imperatives of Turkey comprise more “strategic components” and “power components” considerations.

Geo-politically in the Middle East and Central Asia it is Turkey that is better poised than India in terms of political leverages. It is Turkey that can help India and not the other way around. The same applies to Europe.

India could be of help to Turkey geo-politically, should Turkey wish to engage and expand her contacts in South East Asia.

Geo-economically, India’s vast consumer market of a billion people plus could offer attractive propositions to Turkish business community to tap this vast market.

Turkey and India: The Contemporary Strategic Convergences

The increasing high-level exchanges between Turkey and India suggest that contemporary strategic convergences exist between the two nations. These could provide the building blocks for a future more substantial strategic partnership.

Turkey and India as regional powers and with rising aspirations naturally have a strategic stake in the peace and stability in their respective regional security environment and their extended neighborhoods. It is in a politically stable environment that both Turkey and India can move forward to attain their national aspirations.

It is in this context that natural strategic convergences should exist presently in the stability of Central Asia and the Middle East more specifically and importantly. Both Turkey and India favor the right of Israel to exist as a nation state, the resolution of the Palestinian problem and conflict resolution of all contentious issues and confrontation in the Gulf Region.

Turkey and India’s relationships with the main actors in West Asia and Israel place them in a unique position of being regional powers which can supplement the Middle East Quartet in conflict resolution in West Asia. Scope exists for coordination of peace efforts by Turkey and India on other contentious issues too in the region.

Terrorism as a political weapon by Islamic groups has proved to be scourge inflicting both Turkey and India. Terrorism threats to Turkey and India may arise from different political reasons, but the roots and manifestations to both can be said to arise from the same roots. Counter-terrorism and the war on global terror can also be stated as a contemporary strategic convergence between Turkey and India. In fact India can stand to learn more from Turkey in the exercise of political will to counter terrorist threats.

Maritime security is yet another field of strategic convergence which can be explored for contemporary cooperation.

Concluding Observations

The end of the Cold War and the strategic compulsions in the post 9/11 era have erased away the strategic and political inhibitions which held back Turkey and India from moving towards a strategic partnership. Turbulence in their respective regions and extended neighborhoods have brought into focus the strategic imperative for regional powers like Turkey and India to contribute bilaterally and multi-laterally towards achievement of stability in these areas.

Historically and culturally, Turkey has been no stranger to India and vice-versa too. While these two factors do not predominate in forging strategic relationships, they do facilitate the discourse towards that end.

Turkey and India with a meaningful strategic partnership can contribute positively to the stability of the vast conflict-prone and terrorism-stricken expanses of Asia extending from Central Asia to West Asia and to the doorsteps of Europe and North Africa.

The foregoing analysis indicates that while a Turkey-India Strategic Partnership is in the best strategic interests of both Turkey and India, the imperatives place a greater call on India to move ahead in this direction.

(The author is an International Relations and Strategic Affairs analyst. He is the Consultant, Strategic Affairs with South Asia Analysis Group. Email:drsubhashkapila@yahoo.com)