PAKISTAN: Impact of Radicals in an Economically Challenged Islamic State

PAKISTAN: Impact of Radicals in an Economically Challenged Islamic State

Guest Column by Kishan Bhatia

(The views expressed are his own)

Introduction

Pakistani rulers and army generals completely underestimated the impact including unintended consequences and insecurities, etc that radical jihadis will have on internal security of Pakistan. America never suspected that in 2001 its homeland security will be shattered as a result of direct attacks by a handful of Arab terrorists trained in areas now labeled Afpakia. The War on Terrorism from 2002 to 2008 destroyed Iraq and Afghanistan and delivered a windfall of billions in diplomatic oil ($12 billions from America and an equally large sum of Arab petrodollars) to economically shaky Pakistan. Pakistan continued to use its monetary windfalls to enhance its military power against it imagined enemy -India - instead of building well equipped defensive internal security forces to tackle extremists and terrorists lodged in safe havens of tribal and other parts of Pakistan. Pakistani army, under international pressure, is now engaged in fighting an insurgency and President Asif Ali Zardari is appealing international powers for help to improve its economy.

Pakistan became an American frontline state in 1970s after the fall of Shah of Iran to Iranian Revolution staged by Ayatollahs. The frontline state status boosted the flow of diplomatic oil to fuel the army’s global ambitions and agenda for strategic depth for economic growth. Pakistan exploited jihadi extremists/radicals and foreign aid to stay economically afloat. The unintended consequences for Pakistan of being a frontline state with a weak economy and an extraterritorial expansion or a strategic depth agenda are an addiction to economic dependencies and insecurities.

Insecurity induces feelings of hurt and discrimination associated with a loss of the cultural and scientific supremacy Muslims once enjoyed. Pakistani policies do not encourage youth, especially those at the bottom of the economic pyramid to be enlightened and open-minded to ideas of science and technology, and to non-Islamic cultures. Radicalized unemployed youth add to nation’s insecurity as being unskilled to earn a decent living they gravitate towards extremist causes such as the on-going insurgency to destabilize Pakistan.

Dictators

Public policies for the last five decades adopted by dictators (elected or not) did not focus on developing a sustainable self-reliant economy. Dictators seeking strategic depths focused on jihadi extremists and pursued an adventurous foreign policy by waging proxy wars. For deterrence Pakistan invested heavily in missile and nuclear armed 700,000 men army. They exploited for the last three decades its geography to extract diplomatic oil from America and Arabs to support its military strength. It is now getting addicted to foreign economic aid for survival.

Pakistan is a democracy with a mutilated constitution. Its politicians and the army generals have shown scant regard to the constitution, rule of law and human rights. The dictatorships by elected rulers and army generals have stymied independent institutions essential for a rule of law in the shaky Pakistani democracy. In 1949 it adopted the Objectives Resolution, which is included in the Annex of the current Constitution of Pakistan by virtue of Article 2A of the Constitution. The resolution and doctrine of necessities have been invoked by military dictators to repeatedly compromise the 1973 constitution and overthrow elected governments of Pakistan.

Late Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto was the first to suspend the 1973 constitution that was adopted by consensus, not unanimously and promulgated at noon on Independence Day. The life of the original document was of four hours duration At 1600 hours that same day, Bhutto suspended the constitution by ordering President Fazal Elahi Chaudhry to sign an order (see, Gazette of Pakistan, Extra, on Aug 15, 1973, No.F.24(1)/73-Pub).

Global Ambitions and Dependencies on Foreign Aid

Insecurities of Pakistan stem from the rulers, global ambitions, its weak institutions, its promotion of radical Islam, its weak economy and dependency on diplomatic oil. For six decades Pakistan followed a failed foreign policy; it practiced revanchism; specifically, dictator Zia ul Haq vision was to establish next Caliphate across Eurasia.

The policy of revanchism followed since 1949 is supported by the seventh powerful army in the world. To secure billions in American aid and Arab petrodollars under dictator Zia ul Haq in 1980s Pakistan became America’s front line state to confront Soviet occupation of Afghanistan. As a developing nation, unlike India and China, Pakistan has failed to develop a robust sustainable self-reliant economy to support its huge army. It suffers from insecurity associated with dependency on foreign aid. The excessive dependency of Pakistan on petrodollars and economic aid is evident in the budget of about $31 billion with a foreign aid component of $9 billion for year 2009-10 (Daily Times, June 14, 2009).

Any development that results in a large inflow of foreign currency, including a sharp surge in foreign aid may cause the Dutch Disease. An unintended consequence of mismanagement of too much foreign aid and foreign direct investment may make Pakistan a candidate for the Dutch Disease. Some examples of wasteful allocation in the Pakistan’s 2009-10 budgets are found in a column by Dr. Farrukh Saleem (The News, June 21, 2009).

Pakistan’s ambitions and American policy of regional hegemony coincided in 1980s. Dr. Zbigniew Brzezinski was President Carter’s national security adviser (1976-79) and the business of jihad in Afghanistan originated during Carter administration. President Reagan in 1980s intensified the implementation of the “jihad” policy. Dr. Brzezinski published justifications for the war in Afghanistan in the Foreign Affairs journal of September/October 1997.

Eurasia is home to most of the world’s politically assertive and dynamic states. All the historical pretenders to global power originated in Eurasia. The world’s most populous aspirants to regional hegemony, China and India, are in Eurasia, as are all the potential political or economic challengers to American hegemony. After the United States, the next six largest economies and military spenders are there, as are all but one of the world’s overt nuclear powers, and all but one of the covert ones. Eurasia accounted for 75% of the world’s 6.8 billion population in 2008, 60% GNP, and 75% energy resources. Collectively, Eurasia’s potential power overshadows America’s.

Eurasia is the world’s axial super-continent. A power that dominates Eurasia would exercise decisive influence over two of the world’s three most economically productive regions, Western Europe and East Asia. A glance at the map also suggests that a country dominant in Eurasia would almost automatically control the Middle East and Africa.

Pakistan policy of a front-line state is at the root of its insecurity in South Asia. In exchange for the diplomatic oil, it is supposed to force its tribals and nations around Pakistan to submit to the will of America, Arabs and China; these three nations have patronized Pakistan. In addition it helps spread radical Islam by allowing operation of unregulated madrassahs by Saudi trained semi-literate teachers (See, The Madrassah Challenge: Militancy and Religious Education in Pakistan; By C Christine Fair; Vanguard Books, Lahore, 2009).

Agenda for Strategic Depth

Dictator Zia ul Haq had in 1980s envisioned occupation of Afghanistan for control of Central Asia markets. Pepe Escobar (Asia Times, Sept 29, 2001) explained how Pakistan’s strategic depth policy turned into strategic nightmare. An army security agency is Inter-Service Intelligence (ISI). Mr. Escobar quoted an ISI officer who was commenting on the Pakistani governments agenda and part played by American policy before the event of 9/11/2001.

The ISI officer in a briefing described how Iran is Pakistan's economic enemy and how India is Pakistan's political enemy.
During the 1990s the ISI theory was to get hold of the Central Asian markets.
The concept of strategic depth was that without a friendly government in Kabul, Pakistan would not have access to Central Asian states.
Drawing a parallel between the relations of Osama bin Laden and the CIA, and the relations of the Taliban with the ISI the Pakistani official added, “The CIA was basically the promoter of Osama. Then Osama turned against the CIA. It is the same with the Taliban and the ISI."

A Brooking Institute article, “Pakistan's Strategic Vision: With and Without the Taliban (http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2002/0322pakistan_behera.aspx) has documented the strategic vision of late PM Mr. Bhutto in early 1970s and in 2002 dictator Musharraf offering justifications.

In the Washington Post article, President Zardari (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/06/21/AR2009062101793.html) pleaded for foreign aid without mentioning that in pursuit of Pakistan’s strategic depth Taliban were unleashed into Afghanistan by late PM Benazir Bhutto in 1994. What we see today in Afpakia is the mess resulting from that political decision made by a democratically elected government.

The first Afghan War lasted ten years (1979-89). As soon as Soviets withdrew in 1989 America broke away from supporting Pakistan. However, the political vacuum in Afghanistan allowed ambitious Pakistani Generals to embark on establishing a strategic depth in Afghanistan that had been plunged into chaos by warring Afghan warlords from 1989 to 1994.

General Musharraf was the military advisor to late PM Benazir Bhutto in 1990s and on his advice in 1994 Mrs. Bhutto unleashed the Taliban forces from Pakistan’s tribal areas to occupy Afghanistan. As the dictator from 1999 to 2008 President Musharraf policies in Afpakia areas were responsible for human rights violations; he destroyed one and destabilized other of two nations, Afghanistan and Pakistan. For six years 2002 – 2008 using duplicitous policies General Musharraf collected $12 billion from America for Pakistan’s contribution to the WOT.

As soon as Taliban tasted power, the Generals of Pakistan lost control of them and by 1996 al Qaeda moved into Afghanistan to wage a global jihad – a civilizational war - against non-believers of America, the West and the rest of world in pursuit of establishing next Islamic Caliphate. Their first major terrorism success was the attack of 9/11/2001 on America. It started President Bush’s War on Terrorism (WOT) that has destabilized Middle East as America took the WOT to heartland of Muslim World in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Taliban was financed by Arabs. Under Taliban rule (1994–02) in Afghanistan witnessed an Islamic fascist regime that left it in ruins.

Radicalization of Pakistan

The radical Islam teaches hate and intolerance of non-Islamic believers. Radical Muslims make inhospitable neighbors and induce distrust by invoking scriptures.

Pakistan rulers, media pundits and army have created an atmosphere for and promoted radicalization of its youth. Aid from America and Arabs was used to develop an infrastructure for fighting USSR that had occupied Afghanistan in 1979. Pakistan in 1980s allowed establishment of an estimated 20,000 madrassahs funded by Arabs. These schools produced an estimated up to 60 million radical youth over last 30 years. Pakistan’s population of 173 million (2008) is growing 2+% a year and its population is very young — the median age now is 18.2 years. Pakistan’s youth with age below 30 represent more than 55% in a broad based population pyramid. The radical youth were viewed as first line and army as its last line of defense against any invading foreign forces.

In 21st century Pakistan doesn't need jihadi extremists to defend its borders; Taliban and as many as 50 other private militias are engaged in insurgency. However, Pakistan has routinely used the radicalized youth to establish Taliban and other jihadi forces and private militias to conduct proxy wars in Afghanistan, Central and South Asia.

Insecurity and Unintended Consequences of Radicalization of Youth

Pakistani army is fighting a civil war at its Western territories against fundamentalist tribal warlord dominated Taliban and al Qaeda in exchange for American aid. The tribals are determined to live by the Arab tribal practices of suppressing human rights of women and non-Islamic followers. The tribal war of Pakistan has precipitated insecurity in civil society and created more than 2 million internally displaced persons (IDPs).

In tribal Pakistan madrassahs are extensively used for purposes other than education. Daily Times Editorial (May 31, 2009) commenting on the Swat operations reported that, "(t)he goods discovered at the Taliban headquarters for Swat included 12 UN-registered vehicles that the Taliban had snatched. There were the typical tunnels where the warlords hid when they were attacked with heavy fire. There was a madrassah complete with four tunnels for storing rations stolen from NGOs and a huge cache of arms.”

In the enlightened Islam era (7th to 15th century) most madrassahs were associated with scholarship and development of Islamic science. That is not true in Pakistan. Commenting on quality of education in Arab funded and established madrassahs, Dr. Muzaffar Iqbal (June 5, The News) observed that "we have thousands of semi-literate "teachers" imparting religious education to students who come from the poorest segment of the society. The contrast is too obvious to be ignored by anyone who is serious about the state of the Muslim societies in a world increasingly becoming hostile to the way of life called Islam."

The Arab funded and established madrassahs are not required to follow a curriculum set by Pakistani authorities and therefore, they have been hijacked by Arab ideology and tribal practices. Without firing a single shot, Arabs were able to radicalize youth in last 30 years. An Arab goal was to inhibit enlightened Islam that existed prior to 1970s in Pakistan. Arabs of Persian Gulf and Red Sea promote suppression enlightened Islam that existed prior to 13th century in lands along the Mediterranean Sea.

A brief history of radical and enlightened Islam (to be posted as a blog at www.ivarta.com) is available from the author for those interested in understanding historical linkage of feudal Muslim rulers to radical jihadi extremism for economic growth through extraterritorial expansion.

An economically challenged Pakistan is an equally significant force for destabilization of South Asia and induces globally felt insecurities, especially as Pakistan has provided safe heavens in its tribal areas to radicals of al Qaeda and Taliban leaderships. Pakistan is internally destabilized by the radicals and it is insecure as a result of spreading fundamentalism. Dismantling the infrastructure for radicalization of youth of Pakistan is not easy.

Diplomatic Oil as a Source of Revenues

Pakistan has used its geography to gain billions in rent from America and Arabs. In stead of focusing on being self-reliant, Pakistan opted for long term dependency as it argued that in an atmosphere of the Cold War its geography was its ticket to economic gains needed to support its huge army and nuclear assets. As a consequence that Pakistan’s geography has turned in to a curse as its army followed a flawed foreign policy for the last 25 years. In “Pakistan fights for its tribal soul” (http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/KF12Df02.html) Mr. Syed Saleem Shahzad has offered some interesting explanations.

Kashmir Issue

Pakistanis have thrice tried and failed to resolve the Kashmir issue by military actions and by garnering the diplomatic support from its patrons. Now for the army is conducting low intensity proxy wars in South Asia using jihadi extremists of many private militias such as Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) or its new avatar Jamad-u-Dawa (JuD).

At a recent meeting in Russia (the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, June 17, 2009) with Indian PM Dr. Manmohan Singh, President Zardari lost Pakistan’s Kashmir plank. Pakistan’s failure to crack down on LeT militia and the recent release of two of its leaders jailed after the Mumbai attack led to an angry exchange. There was a time when Pakistan wanted from India “movement” on Kashmir. Now India wants “movement” first, on terrorism.

Pakistan’s foreign policy had suited interests of its three patrons for over six decades but not any more. According to Boston Globe’s Mr. Selig S. Harrison “no new US aid commitments should be made to Islamabad until it takes decisive action to disarm Lashkar-e-Taiba in accordance with Article 256 of the Pakistan Constitution, which bars private militias.”

Following the changes in American policy on the War on Terrorism, the global strategic environment is undergoing a transformation that potentially can shift to other nations (e.g. Iraq) the front-line state status, marginalizing Pakistan. Pakistan’s insecurities are amplified with a steady erosion of the international support for Pakistan, which is a result of forging increasing economic interdependencies among Pakistan’s patrons and India.

Concluding Remarks

Pakistan for last two decades of 20th century followed an agenda to acquire strategic depth in Afghanistan to counter Iran and to control Central Asian markets. It also waged a proxy war to economically bleed India. The unintended consequence of trying to economically drain India using the proxy war strategy is internal destabilization of Pakistan itself.

(Dr. Bhatia is an analyst on contemporary developments impacting on South Asia and America . Email: kbhatia323@hotmail.com)