INDIA: Strategic Imperatives for an Indian “Af-Pak” Policy

INDIA: STRATEGIC IMPERATIVES FOR AN INDIAN “AF-PAK” POLICY

By Dr. Subhash Kapila

Introductory Observations

Strategic naivety born out of a deficit of strategic culture in India's political leaders and policy establishment has in the last sixty years resulted not only in India being placed in a messy embattled security environment but also a defunct foreign policy, both inflicting serious damage to India's national security.

The latest Indian foreign policy flops which enrage every right- thinking Indian are manifested by India's strategic and diplomatic side-lining on Afghanistan at the London Conference 2010 and India's succumbing to external pressures on resumption of a Peace Dialogue with Pakistan. On both these counts, it is a failure of India's Prime Minister and his advisory establishment not to stand firm on protection of India’s strategic turf and safeguarding Indian national security interests.

On both issues of Afghanistan’s long term stability and resumption of Peace Dialogue with Pakistan, the Indian Government has allowed itself to be hustled by the United States to calibrate Indian foreign policy to suit Pakistan’s strategic interests, which find more favor and support in Washington.

The Indian people have a right to know from their Government as to which of India's strategic interests are served by acquiescing to Western proposals of co-option of the Taliban in power-sharing in Kabul as emerging from the London Conference?

The Indian people have the right to know from their Government as to which of India's national security interests are served by resumption of the Peace Dialogue with Pakistan. At this juncture Pakistan has noticeably increased its proxy war in Jammu & Kashmir and the Pakistan Army Chief who controls Pakistan’s foreign policy, continues to publicly assert that there can be no peace with India till Kashmir and the water disputes are solved. In other words, Pakistan Army will continue with its adversarial postures against India.

Obviously, there are some shortcomings in India’s strategic stances and foreign policy formulations and preferences which allow external powers to walk all over India's national security interests.

Coming back to Afghanistan and Pakistan, it strikes this Author that the problem with the Indian policy establishment lies in its perspectives on both these countries.

On Afghanistan, India's perspectives are strategic alright, but India fails politically to add robustness and strategic weight to its Afghan policy. India shies away from hard power strategic choices and settles for soft power options like reconstruction programs as in operation in Afghanistan.

On Pakistan, successive Indian Governments have based India's Pakistan policy on political perspectives and domestic political considerations. This has resulted in India's Pakistan policy formulations being shorn of strategic considerations which should predominate when dealing with a hostile neighbor, which is not only adversarial singly but also figures in a simultaneous dual- threat configuration along with China.

Strategically, the time has now come for India to formulate an “India Af-Pak Policy” to remove the existing policy infirmities and enable an integrated and strategically robust foreign policy towards this region. Needless to state that if the United States has felt imperatives for such an integrated approach, India has even stronger strategic imperatives to do so, because Pakistan is at the root of all evils in this region.

In this connection this paper would like to focus on two issues only, namely:

India Af-Pak Policy: The Contextual Imperatives
India Af-Pak Policy: The Basic Strategic Premises

India Af-Pak Policy: The Contextual Imperatives

Afghanistan occupies a predominating strategic fixation in Pakistan’s foreign policy and strategic stances. Such a Pakistani fixation is destined to last for all times to come until Pakistan disintegrates due to internal fissures or external pressures, In Pakistan’s strategic thinking, Afghanistan is not viewed as a friendly Muslim neighboring state. Pakistan perceives Afghanistan as falling naturally in its Islamic influence sphere and viewed as a vassal state to serve Pakistan Army’s requirement of strategic depth.

The Pakistan Army Chief on return from a NATO HQ meeting yesterday declared that it is a strategic requirement of Pakistan for Afghanistan to provide it strategic depth, even if not by direct control, but at least by a Pakistan-friendly Government in Kabul. In both cases it implies Pakistan’s strategic control over Afghanistan as a Pakistani fief to the exclusion of all others.

If Pakistan was a state friendly to India minus its “Two-Nation Theory” fixations and its strategic rivalries with India which drive it to its propensity for conflict with India, then Pakistan Army sensitivities on Afghanistan may have elicited some Indian consideration However, Afghanistan figures as a strategic pawn in Pakistan’s policy formulations to be used against India.

In case of India too, Pakistan’s policy approaches are determined by strategic perspectives of the Pakistan Army and not by any political perspectives of good-neighborliness, regional cooperation and economic integration. Pakistan has all along acted as the ‘regional spoiler state’ against India

Pakistan Army’s bottom-lines for peace with India basically amount to India's surrender of the whole of Jammu and Kashmir region to Pakistan. Here also the prime consideration is more strategic depth to Pakistan’s narrow-waisted geographical configuration in the North.

Even if India for some reason was to surrender Jammu and Kashmir State to Pakistan, that would not end Pakistan Army’s strategic objectives vis-a vis India. The next strategic objective after gaining J & K by the Pakistan Army would be to whittle down Indian’s strategic predominance over Pakistan by use of asymmetric warfare strategies.

This Author already in his Paper No 3617 of 21 Jan 2010 entitled “PAKISTAN-INDIA PEACE STRATEGICALLY IMPOSSIBLE” has shed light on this issue.

The bottom line therefore in terms of strategic imperatives for India is that it must devise an “India Af-Pak Policy” wherein it coalesces and integrates its Afghanistan and Pakistan policies in one strategic whole and views its Western frontiers and adjoining regions solely in strategic terms.

In other words, peace with Pakistan is not possible for India unless India is strategically strong and has a substantive strategic and political presence in Afghanistan and Afghanistan’s stability and security is not possible unless India changes its tack in Pakistan policy approaches from one of a purely political approach to that of a hard-headed and robust strategic approach.

India Af-Pak Policy: The Basic Strategic Premises

The underlying aim of this Paper is not to provide a detailed blueprint for an Indian Af-Pak Policy but only to spark a debate on this vital requirement for reorientation of India’s foreign policy approaches.

India many years back initiated a “Look East Policy”. It is time that India initiates a strategic “Look West Policy” also focusing on Afghanistan and Pakistan in an integrated manner to serve India's national security interests.

The basic strategic premises of India Af-Pak Policy need to be viewed at two levels. The first level is taking an integrated strategic view of Afghanistan and Pakistan and their interlinkages for a realistic Indian foreign policy towards this region. The second level is the vital requirement of reorientation of India's foreign policy towards the major powers in relation to a newly formulated India Af-Pak Policy.

The basic strategic premises that should form the bedrock of ‘India Af-Pak Policy’ are suggested as follows:

Pakistan views Afghanistan as its strategic appendage and Pakistan policy approaches towards India and Pakistan are accordingly modulated. India's new Af-Pak Policy should aim at neutralizing this modulation.
India's Pakistan policy will be solely determined by India's national security interests and not the political clamor of Pakistan’s external patrons and India's strategically- unreal peace lobbies.
India Af-Pak Policy in Afghanistan would henceforth incorporate a “strategic hands on” policy. Reconstruction of Afghanistan policies cannot substitute for a robust Afghanistan policy by India to offset Pakistan’s de-stabilizing mischief. India has legitimate strategic interests in Afghanistan and the new Af-Pak Policy should aim use of muscular diplomacy by India to prevent Pakistan’s sidelining of India in Afghanistan through her strategic patrons or Islamic linkages.
The above should include India's build-up and training of Afghanistan National Army to strengths commensurate to meet the Pakistan military threat. The Pakistan Army Chief yesterday asserted that the Afghan National Army strength should not be built up to equal that of Pakistan Army. The implication being that Afghanistan should remain militarily vulnerable to Pakistan Army and the Taliban.
Peace Dialogue with Pakistan need to be dispensed with as the preferred Indian policy option .Pakistan under Pakistan Army control is not a votary of peace and nor are US pressures sincerely motivated in India's favor. India’s constant climbdowns from benchmarks for Peace Dialogue with Pakistan asserted after every major terrorist attack by Pakistan, sully India's image as the regional power of substance.
India's Af-Pak Policy should incorporate unapologetic use of ‘pressure-points’ and ‘counter- pressure points’ to attain Indian policy objectives. In case of Pakistan, Indian support should be given to all self-determination movements flourishing in Pakistan

The second level which should accompany the formulation of India Af-Pak Policy pertains to reorientation of India's foreign policies towards major powers and their sensitivity and respect for India's legitimate interests in the Af-Pak region.

United States has shown scant respect to India's strategic sensitivities when it comes to Pakistan. US-India Strategic Partnership becomes hollow if this trend persists. India as part of its Af-Pak Policy needs to spell out the quid-pro-quo it expects from the United States.
India's Iran policy needs to revert back to its original moorings which held in good stead for nearly a quarter of a century. A robust India Af-Pak Policy cannot materialize and succeed without strategic cooperation of Iran in permitting land, sea and air access for India to Afghanistan.
Russia-India Strategic Partnership needs to be restored to its old flavor and vigor for success of India Af-Pak Policy. It needs to be appreciated that Russia has never indulged in balance of power politics in South Asia against India and has respected India’s regional power role. India’s recommended Af-Pak Policy may find strategic resonance with Russia.

Concluding Observations

India's lack of an integrated strategic approach in its policies towards Afghanistan and Pakistan has resulted in a piquant situation where India has emerged as a loser both in Afghanistan and in Pakistan.

In Afghanistan, India stands side-lined despite her legitimate strategic interests there by the very same powers whose permissive policies towards Pakistan has led to strategic destabilization of Afghanistan.

On Pakistan, India is being made to succumb to a Peace Dialogue with Pakistan by these very powers who sidelined India in Afghanistan and whose espousal of Pakistan is based on Pakistan’s blackmail of not extending them support in Afghanistan.

India therefore has strong imperatives for the formulation of a new ‘India Af-Pak Policy’ to remove the dichotomy in its existing policy of a strategic approach to Afghanistan without adding substantive political and strategic weight to it and India's political approach to Pakistan, which makes no sense to Pakistan which as a militarized garrison state is prone to military adventurism and places no priority on political niceties

The ‘India Af-Pak Policy’ to be successful would need foreign policy corrections to correct the existing perspectives on Iran and Russia.

(he author is an International Relations and Strategic Affairs analyst. He is the Consultant, Strategic Affairs with South Asia Analysis Group. Email: drsubhashkapila.007@gmail.com)