UNDERSTANDING IRAN
by B.Raman
The US, which used the Islamic fundamentalists against
communism in Afghanistan in the 1980s, has embarked on an operation
to use the communists to bring about the end of the Islamic regime in
Iran.
2. The dozens of anti-cleric and secular Iranian exile
groups operating from the West against the Islamic regime in Teheran
broadly fall into the following categories:
* The left-oriented Mujahideen-e-Khalq (MEK-People's
Mujahideen) and elements allied with it in the National Council of
Resistance of Iran (NCRI). They mainly operate from West Europe,
with headquarters in France.
* The monarchists, mainly operating from the USA, with
the help of the neoconservatives and Jewish lobby groups.
* The remnants and new adherents of the old pro-Moscow
Communist Party of Iran, called the Tudeh Party, and other communist
factions, mainly operating from the UK.
3. The MEK, which had in the past indulged in acts of
terrorism inside Iran from sanctuaries provided by the Saddam Hussein
regime in Iraq, has been designated as a Foreign Terrorist Organisation (FTO)
under a 1996 US law. Till recently, this precluded any CIA
assistance to or even contacts with it. However, it would seem that
after the occupation of Iraq by the US forces, the CIA and the Defence
Intelligence Agency (DIA) have been allowed to establish contact with MEK
elements in Iraq and West Europe for using them against the Teheran
regime. This decision was reportedly taken to pre-empt any Iranian
meddling in Iraq.
4. The MEK has had the ability in the past to organise
acts of terrorism in Iranian territory mainly because of the operational
assistance provided by the Iraqi intelligence. As of now, the CIA
does not have a similar operational capability inside Iran. Moreover, the
Bush Administration would not like to be seen by the international
community as sponsoring terrorism in Iran. Its present cultivation
of the MEK is meant more to exercise psychological pressure on the Teheran
regime and to keep before it the spectre of a US-backed operation one day
for a regime change, with the MEK spearheading the operation with US
assistance.
5. The French action earlier this week to round up the
leaders and activists of the MEK and the NCRI in France was meant to
pre-empt the CIA's covertly using its territory and the large number of
Iranian exiles there for a destabilisation operation in Iran.
6. The US-based monarchists, who have been financially
the most well-endowed and the most articulate against the Teheran regime,
have the least following inside Iran. Till recently, they were
reportedly the recipients of maximum funds and patronage from the US
intelligence community.
7. The post-1999 student unrest in Iran made the
CIA realise that while the MEK and the monarchists were making loud, but
often unprovable claims about their following and successes inside
Iran, it was the remnants and the new adherents of the Communist
Party/factions , who have been operating silently and effectively inside
Iran and built up a number of anti-cleric, secular and progressive secret
cells. It is these cells, which have been largely responsible for
the growing student unrest in Iran since 1999 and for the current wave of
student demonstrations, which have rocked not only Teheran, but also other
cities for nearly 10 days now.
8. The demonstrations initially started as a protest
against a move to privatise certain universities. Students belonging to
middle and lower middle class families feared that this could make
university education costly and deny them its benefit. They have since
assumed a much larger agenda, calling for the end of the clerical rule and
for the introduction of secularism and genuine democracy in Iran.
9. The number of students involved in these
domonstrations is not very large---an average of about 3,000 per affected town, but
what is remarkable is the clandestine networking, tenacity of purpose and
the ability to evade detection of their cells by the Iranian intelligence
agencies displayed by the organisers. Neither the MEK nor the
monarchists have exhibited such capabilities in the past. Though the
monarchists have been trying to claim credit for what has been happening,
the evidence available till now suggests that the credit for the
anti-cleric movement should largely go to the communists and other
leftists.
10. After the Islamic revolutionaries seized power in
Iran in 1979, the Iranian intelligence promoted the formation of a number
of Student Islamic Associations and Offices for Consolidation of Islamic
Unity in the universities and other educational institutions to keep a
watch on student activities and to prevent any movement against the
clerics. Iranian students, many of them members of the Tudeh Party, had
played an active role against the dictatorial regime of the Shah of Iran
and in making the success of the Ayatollah Khomeni led Islamic revolution
possible. They were also in the forefront of the anti-US campaign,
with many of them playing an active role in the raid on the US Embassy in
Teheran and the taking of US diplomats as hostages soon after the clerics
came to power. The clerics, therefore, knew and feared the potential power
of the students in Iran, particularly the fierce motivation of the
communist and other leftist supporters amongst them. After seizing
power with the help of the communist students, the clerics ruthlessly
suppressed the communists, arresting and executing many of them. Those,
who escaped arrest and death at the hands of the clerics, managed to flee
to West Europe and started organising their activities from there. The
lead in this was taken by the London-based Worker-Communist Party of Iran
(WCPI).
11. Till 1998, the Student Islamic Associations and
Offices for Consolidation of Islamic Unity held sway in the universities
and the communist cells were unable to make any headway. The
situation started changing in favour of the communists since 1999 due to
growing dissatisfaction amongst the students over the repressive rule of
the regime. The communist cells organised their activities around demands
for freedom of expression, respect for the human rights of political
prisoners, end of execution of political prisoners, restoration of genuine
democracy, secularism, right to employment etc.
12. The communists issued calls for the unity of all
progressive students under the banner of socialism and worker-communism
and clandestinely circulated the writings of Mansoor Hekmat, an ideologue
of the communist students, who had written: "'In a religious
capitalist tyranny, a misogynist, anti-life, anti-intellect and
uncivilised regime, the university is a natural ground for the growth of
communism. " One of the articles circulated by them in the university
campuses said: "The more lucid, clear and radical the slogans and
demands of the progressive movement for the overthrow of the Islamic
Republic, the more the masses of the workers, teachers, women and
progressive people will support these demands. The communist students must
recognise these circumstances and be aware of its profound
potential."
13. Amongst the various pro-communist organisations
which started operating in the universities, one could mention the
Union of Islamic University Associations, headed by Heshmatollah Tabarzadi,which
started a journal called "Payam-e Daneshju", since banned by the
conservative judicial authorities. It reflects the views of
Iranian dissident scholar Abdul Karim Sorush, who argued that Islam and
democracy are compatible and called for an end to the clergy's near
monopoly on political power. Another nation-wide university
organization is the Daftar-e Tahkim-e Vahdat (Office for Strengthening of
Unity) which, while calling for greater political freedom, distanced
itself from the call for removing the clergy from the corridors of
political power. The pro-Communist organisations supported President
Khatami during his election campaigns, but have since become disillusioned
over his reluctance to assert himself against the clerics and Ayatollah
Khamenei.
14. There was a fresh outbreak of student unrest in
Teheran and other places in November,2002, which was indicative of the
organising capability of the secret cells and of the anti-cleric and even
anti-Khatami turn it was taking. On November 18, 2002, about 5000
students of the Sharif University held a protest rally, which was joined
by some workers from the Iran National Car Factory and Iran Sypa
Motor Manufacturing . About 1500 students of the Esfahan University also
held a demonstration and shouted: "Down with Dictatorship";
"Iran is not Chile" and 'Both in Kabul and Tehran, down with the
Taliban!"
15. There is as yet no evidence to corroborate the
allegations of the Iranian authorities that the US intelligence has been
behind the current wave of student unrest. However, it appears to be
true that, after repeatedly seeing the potential and clandestine
operational capability of the pro-communist students of the Universities,
the CIA has started shifting its bets to them rather than placing
them on the monarchists and the MEK for destabilising the Teheran regime.
16. Certain Western-based students' organisations such
as the Students' Movement Co-ordination Committee for Democracy in Iran (
SMCCDI), which do not appear to be directly associated with the
communists, were already in receipt of financial assistance and guidance
in agitprop methods from the CIA in the past. Now, an increasing
part of this assistance is being diverted to those directly associated
with the communists.
17.The CIA's assistance to the anti-cleric elements in
Iran started even under the Clinton Administration. This largely
consisted of supply of funds for propaganda through radio stations and the
Internet. Even now, the CIA's assistance is confined to these
fields. There is as yet no evidence of para-military training being
imparted to these elements anywhere.
18. On May 19, 2003, Kansas Senator Sam Brown back
announced at a press conference that he would introduce a bill
to be called the Iran Democracy Act, asking for US $ 50 million
to promote democracy in Iran and to fund Iranian opposition groups. There
is a debate among Iranian dissident groups, particularly the
leftist-oriented, about the advisability of accepting financial or other
assistance from the US. Many argue that acceptance of US assistance would
give them the kiss of death and damage their credibility in the eyes of
the Iranian people. They say that open statements of support to the
protesting students by President Bush and other US leaders and officials
has already done harm to their movement.
19. The US views the students' protests as an Allah send.
It has presently no plans for any military action in Iran. Hopefully, it
has learnt the right lessons from Afghanistan and Iraq about the
counter-productive and backlash effect of overt military interventions,
particularly in Islamic countries, to achieve national security objectives. Moreover,
the need to avoid more body bags in the months preceding next year's
Presidential elections should rule out an American military foray into
Iran.
20. Not only the US leadership, Democrat or Republican,
but also large sections of the American public opinion have serious
concerns, which they consider legitimate, over the perceived role of the
clerical regime in Iran as the spoiler of peace and stability in the
region and over its nuclear programme. US public opinion would
strongly back any action taken by the Administration to neutralise the
perceived threats from Iran without getting militarily involved on the
ground. In US view, a well-orchestrated and effective covert action, even
if it involves the resurgence of communism in Iran, would be a better
option for digging the grave of the clerical regime.
21. Effective covert action demands bases from which one
could relay broadcasts and telecasts, disseminate printed propaganda,
interact with dissident elements inside Iran without their having to
travel to the West for this purpose, and train the surrogates in
clandestine operations. The CIA was hoping to use Iraqi and
Pakistani territory for this purpose. The deterioration in the
internal security situation in Iraq has ruled out the use of its territory
for the present.
22. As a result, the importance of Pakistan has
increased many fold in the CIA's perception. That is why the CIA strongly
advised its Government to tickle the ego of Gen. Pervez Musharraf by
receiving him in Camp David instead of in Washington and to shower him
with the kind of honours no other Pakistani leader had received
before---not even Zia-ul-Haq during the Afghan war of the 1980s.
23. Since his last bilateral visit to the US in February
last year, Musharraf has already ordered his Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI)
to covertly collaborate with the US intelligence agencies for the
collection of intelligence about Iran. It was unhappiness over this,
which led to the resignation of Abdul Sattar, his Foreign Minister,
ostensibly on health grounds.
24. During the recent visit of Lt. Gen.Ehsanul Haq,
Director-General of the ISI, to Washington, the subject of expanding this
co-operation was reportedly further discussed. According to unconfirmed
reports, James Woolsey, former Director of the CIA under Clinton, who has
been acting as adviser to the Iranian monarchist groups, had called on Haq.
This subject is expected to be on the top of the agenda for Musharraf's
talks with Bush. It is said that the CIA is interested in
re-activating the Sunni Balochis in Iran against the Teheran regime and in
shifting the MEK dregs presently in Iraq to Pakistani Balochistan so that
they could operate from there without causing embarrassment to the US
occupation authority in Baghdad.
25. Pakistani sources claim that while Musharraf may be
inclined to allow the relaying of clandestine broadcasts and telecasts
from Pakistani territory, he is against re-activating the Iranian Balochis
which could boomerang on Pakistan's Balochistan and shifting the MEK dregs
to Balochistan. The Bush Administration is expected to dangle before
him the lollipop of another debt write-off and F-16 aircraft if he went
the whole hog in becoming the USA's covert frontline ally against Iran.
26.The unhappiness over Musharraf's perceived
willingness to collaborate with the USA against Iran is not confined to
Pakistan's Foreign Office. Some Army officers such as Gen. Mohammad Aziz,
a fundamentalist Kashmiri officer belonging to the Sudan tribe of
Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (POK), have also reportedly expressed their
misgivings during discussions at the GHQ. Aziz is presently
Chairman, Chiefs of Staff Committee. They have also referred to the
dangers of its causing alienation amongst the Shias in the Armed Forces.
The Pakistan Air Force, in particular, has a large number of Shias at the
lower and middle levels in the cadres of technicians.
27. It is reported that he has reassured them by
projecting that his present intelligence collaboration with the USA was
against the terrorists operating from Iranian territory and not against
the Iranian regime. He has described it as part of the war against
international terrorism by the international coalition under the UN
Security Council Resolution No.1373. He has reportedly reiterated
that he would not agree to any other co-operation, which may be directed
against the clerical regime. But, their concerns have not subsided.
They have noted that since the recent visit of Ehsanul Haq to the US,
Musharraf's enthusiasm for a gas pipeline from Iran to India via Pakistan
has decreased.
28. Musharraf wants to go down in Pakistan's history as
the leader who achieved Pakistan's objective in Jammu & Kashmir.
If he calculates that by collaborating with the USA to bring down the
Teheran regime, he might achieve this objective, he may not hesitate to do
so. New Delhi and Teheran should be prepared for surprises.
(The writer is Additional
Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, and, presently,
Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and, Convenor, Advisory
Committee, Observer Research Foundation (ORF), Chennai Chapter. E-Mail: corde@vsnl.com
)
