South Asia Analysis Group 
Notes and Updates  


 

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  PAK ARMY CHIEF CAUGHT YAPPING
 
         The transcripts of the taped conversations of Gen.Pervez Musharraf, Pakistan's Chief of the Army Staff (COAS), who was then in Beijing, with Lt.Gen.Mohd. Aziz, Chief of the General Staff (CGS), in Rawalpindi on May 26 and 29 speak poorly of the security consciousness of the Pakistani COAS.
         Generally, when public servants, holding sensitive charges, travel abroad, they go to their Embassy in the host country whenever they have to hold sensitive discussions with their entourage or make or receive telephone calls. Even in the Embassy, they take precautions such as keeping a T.V. or radio on at high volume while holding discussions with their entourage and using a scrambler while talking on telephone.
         Surprisingly, Gen.Musharraf had been using the telephone of the room of the hotel in which he had been put up for receiving situation reports from his CGS on the Pakistan Army's activities in the Kargil sector and for giving instructions on further action to be taken. This is evident from the fact that the CGS rings up the hotel exchange and asks for his chief's room. Apparently, he was not even using a scrambler. 
         From this, it follows inevitably that the Pakistani Army chief's telephone conversations with his CGS must have been recorded by the Chinese intelligence too through hidden recording devices in his room and by the agencies of the US and other Western countries which have very comprehensive arrangements for monitoring all international telephone conversations through satellites.
         Thus, all these agencies would now be having recordings of the COAS' admission that the proxy invasion of India through the foreign mercenaries, officered by Pakistanis, was being orchestrated by the Pakistan Army and of his advice to his Foreign Office as to how it should cover up the violation of the Line of Control (LoC) by taking up the stand that the LoC was not clearly demarcated in this area.
         During his Press conference at the Pakistani High Commission in New Delhi on June 12, Mr.Sartaj Aziz, the Pakistani Foreign Minister, belittled the evidentiary value of these tapes, but the Pakistani authorities must be greatly worried over the possibility of the Governments of China, the US and other Western countries having their own independent recordings of these highly incriminating telephone conversations.
         One does not know when President Clinton's letter to the Pakistani Prime Minister, Mr.Nawaz Sharif, to respect the LoC was drafted. If it was after May 29, it would not be far-fetched to surmise that the CIA must have brought these conversations to the notice of Mr.Clinton, thereby triggering off the letter.
         China's low-key reactions to Pakistani allegations against India could also be attributed to their knowledge of the Pakistani Army's hand in Kargil.
         Another highly incriminating admission made by the CGS is that the mercenaries are under the control of the Pakistan Army. In the past, Pakistan had always been denying any links with the mercenaries and claiming that it was giving only political, diplomatic and moral support to the Kashmiri insurgents.
         And here is their CGS saying that the mercenaries sent into the Kargil sector were under the control of the Pakistani Army which would be able to ensure that they did not exceed the Army's brief. These mercenaries have come partly from the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen, which was declared an international terrorist organisation by the US in October, 1997, and which has been categorised by the latest annual report of the Counter-Terrorism Division of the State Department as a supporter of Osama bin Laden, the Lashkar-e-Toiba, which the State Department is reportedly planning to similarly declare an international terrorist organisation, and bin Laden's force itself, many of whose leaders are wanted in terrorism-related cases in the USA and Egypt. US courts have issued warrants for their arrest.
         The US cannot have any more clinching evidence to declare Pakistan a State-sponsor of international terrorism.
         A careful examination of the tapes also shows that one of the principal objectives of the Pakistani Army's proxy invasion is to disrupt the Indian Army's re-stocking of essential supplies to the Indian troops on the Siachen glacier during the current summer in order to create difficulties for our troops during the coming winter.
         The CGS reports to his chief about his having told the Pakistani Foreign Office that during his talks in New Delhi, Mr.Sartaj Aziz should not agree to a cease-fire because "then vehicles will be moving " (on the Drass-Kargil Highway)
         At what stage did Mr.Sharif become aware of the Pakistani Army's proxy invasion plans? The CGS, while reporting on May 29 to the COAS on a meeting held by Mr. Sharif says: "He said I (Sharif) came to know seven days back, when Corps Commanders were told. The entire reason for the success of this operation was this total secrecy. Our experience was that our earlier efforts failed because of lack of secrecy. So, the top priority is to accord confidentiality, to ensure success. We should respect this and the advantage we have from this would give us a handle."
         There are two ways of interpreting this. First, as claimed by Mr.George Fernandes, our Defence Minister, the Army secretly planned and started the execution of this operation and informed Mr.Sharif thereafter.
         The second interpretation is that at the inter-departmental meeting convened by Mr.Sharif, the Foreign Office representative expressed their unhappiness over the Army not keeping them in the picture since they had to handle the diplomatic fall-out.
         Mr.Sharif tried to soothe their ruffled feathers by claiming that he himself was informed only seven days earlier in the interest of operational secrecy. This does not necessarily mean that Mr. Sharif was not in the picture from the very beginning.
         While the Pakistani Press and public are expressing their solidarity with their Army, one could discern in the comments of some independent analysts gnawing fears that Gen. Musharraf is becoming over-assertive at the expense of the credibility of the elected political leadership and that this operation could ultimately boomerang on Pakistan.
         Thus, the "News" said in an article on May 29: "It is undeniable that armed men have crossed the Line in large numbers, if only because they themselves have admitted their presence and given Press statements by satellite telephone. They were not stopped by Pakistan Army patrols."
         Mr.Azhar Abbas said in an article in the May issue of the "Herald", the monthly journal of the "Dawn" group:" The assumption here (in Pakistan) is that India cannot respond to this kind of (covert) warfare with a conventional attack on Pakistan....
         "The Army appears convinced of the wisdom of keeping India bleeding in Kashmir and in the presence of an effective deterrent (in the form of nuclear weapons in the hands of Pakistan), the temptation to do so would be even greater.....
         "Several retired Army officers believe that the new Army Chief is far more assertive than his predecessor (Gen. Jehangir Karamat) and, in the event of the Nawaz Government taking issue with the new doctrine, is unlikely to bow out as easily as Karamat. This points to troubled civil-military relations in the future...."
         The article concludes: " Skeptics are already warning that in the guise of changing threat perceptions and bailing out the (internal) system, the Army may only be searching for a new power-sharing formula after the dissolution of the infamous Troika. If the Army's new doctrine is, indeed, little more than the quest for a new power-sharing arrangement, it is time for the Nawaz Government to disillusion the Army....If the Government fails to do that, in the words of Dr. Eqbal Ahmad (a highly-respected Pakistani analyst), this change of threat perception can cost us, in the long run, our entire future."
         The article was analysing not only Gen. Musharraf's perception of India, but also his vigorous justification of the Army agreeing to take over purely civilian responsibilities such as running the Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA). Mr.Sharif asked the Army to run the WAPDA to end corruption and to improve its efficiency.
         After taking over, Gen. Musharraf, to the discomfiture of  Mr.Sharif, is reported to have issued orders that the Army would not only be responsible for the day-to-day running, but would also conduct all future negotiations with the independent power producers, thereby denying any role in this matter to the political leadership and civilian bureaucrats.
         The comments within brackets are those of the writer of this article. 

B.RAMAN                                                     (14-6-99)

      
   (The writer is Additional Secretary (Retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India and presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: corde@vsnl.com ).