Though, the BJP claims to have got the positive mandate to govern the country under the
leadership of Shri A.B.Vajpayee, the ongoing developments pertaining to the Assembly
elections in Bihar, Orissa and Haryana and also by-elections in some other States have
given enough indications that, all said and done; the party may find it extremely
difficult to improve its support base.
The way, its junior partners in the NDA, with a natural ambition
to improve their growth, both in the States as well as at the Centre, put pressure on it
for a share of power are a clear signal that they cannot be taken for granted. Since the
main problem for the Prime Minister, Shri Vajpayee is to maintain the stability of his
Government, he is alleged to have shown a tendency to succumb to the pressure of his
allies.
However, due to the commanding authority attained by Shri
Vajpayee in the BJP after the 1999 Lok Sabha elections, the party leaders prefer to keep
silent for obvious reasons and toe his line of governance, even though they are aware that
the "appeasement policy " towards the alliance partners at the cost of its State
units may affect the further growth of the party.
As per the laws of nature, if anything remains static for long,
it starts shrinking. The BJP, a major partner in the coalition with a strength of 182 in
the Lok Sabha which remained the same in the last two elections against the highest
strength of 29 of one of the allies, namely, the Telugu Desam Party, has so far not been
able to remove the general impression that it continues to be a prisoner of its allies.
The allies of the BJP, while maintaining direct communications
with the Prime Minister, hardly give due importance to the BJP leadership. Whenever any
problem arises between the BJP and its alliance partners, the Prime Minister is expected
to intervene and resolve it. The Prime Minister, on the other hand, in the name of the
‘Dharma’ of coalition politics, does not hesitate to sacrifice the long-term
interests of the party for the sake of the stability of his Government.
During the 1999 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP initially expressed
its reservation against the merger of the Samata Party, the Janata Dal and the Lok Sakti,
but it had to succumb to the pressure of Shri George Fernandes, the then president of the
Samata Party.
Similarly, the state unit of the BJP in Karnataka strongly
resisted its alliance with the Janata Dal in the State, but following the intervention of
Shri Vajpayee, both the central and the State leadership of the party became quiet and
accepted the alliance. The BJP had to face a major setback in both the Lok Sabha and
Assembly elections in the State.
This shows as to how the BJP had to suffer in the State by
succumbing to the pressure of its junior partners. This appears to be the reason why Shri
Vajpayee is avoiding a direct personal intervention in resolving the seat-sharing dispute
with the allies in the Assembly elections in the States.
Ever since the notification of the forthcoming Assembly elections
in Bihar, Orissa and Haryana the alliance partners of the BJP in their respective States
started showing their real colours. Now they want to have their hegemony in sharing power
in the States. Knowing the weak nerve of the big brother, they are pressing it closer to
the danger point without caring for its outcome.
They may finally agree to contest the elections unitedly, but
their haggling over the sharing of Assembly seats has been seen by the people as in bad
taste. In fact, even after the expiry of the last date for withdrawal for the first phase
of elections in Bihar, the haggling in identifying the seats by the NDA constituents
within their respective quota continued; as a result, there are a number of constituencies
where they might have a friendly contest among themselves. This puts a big question mark
as to how far they would be able to give a united fight against their adversaries
The people of Bihar are desperately in search of an advisor like
Chanakya and a ruler like Chandragupta Maurya to rescue this bleeding State from its
political, social, economic and administrative ailments. The partners of the National
Democratic Alliance, who had been crying hoarse to free the State from the "Jangal
Raj", have given the impression that they are more interested in fulfilling their
individual ambitions than in the aspiration of the people of Bihar.
The BJP, in its bid to satisfy the junior partners,namely, the
Samata, the JD (U) and the Bihar People's Party even at the cost of its State unit,
climbed down to contest only 150 seats against its initial claim of 174 in which the party
had maintained a lead during the Lok Sabha elections in 1999. But, none of the partners,
who were left to contest 90,64 and 20 seats respectively, were found satisfied and would
be fighting against each other in a number of the 324 constituencies as they failed to
identify the seats from their own quota.
This is perhaps for the first time that none of the alliance
partners formally announced the list of their candidates even after the expiry of the date
for the filing of nominations for the first phase of the elections on February 12. They
continued haggling till the date for withdrawal.
The situation is so chaotic that they are apprehending even
inter-alliance sabotage. The main problem is the personal ambition and the ego of the
individual leaders, particularly of the Socialist background, which they have inherited
right from the days of Dr. Ram Manohar Lohia and Jai Prakash Narayan. Both Shri Ram Vilas
Paswan, a Scheduled Caste leader of the JD (U), and Shri Nitish Kumar, a backward caste
leader of the Samata Party, are known to have their eye on the chair of the Chief
Minister.
Though both of them, who are presently Ministers in the Union
Cabinet, gave out statements that they were not interested in the post of the Chief
Minister, the people of the State are not ready to accept their statements at their face
value. Unfortunately, Bihar is yet to recover from the stigma of producing only caste
leaders and not even regional leaders. Gone are the days when it produced national leaders
like Dr. Rajendra Prasad and Jai Prakash Narayan.
The BJP, even after sacrificing its political interest in the
State to a considerable extent, is found suffocated and sandwiched as a prisoner of its
junior partners. There may not be any guarantee for this alliance to come to power in the
State, but even if it forms the government, will it be able to deliver and fulfil the
aspirations of the people?
The situation in Orissa is equally disturbing for the BJP. The
State unit of the Biju Janata Dal (BJD), an alliance partner in the NDA, started its
bargaining on seat sharing for the Assembly election in the State by offering only 25
seats to the BJP in the house of 147. It also demanded that its leader, Shri Naveen
Patnayak, a Minister in the Union Cabinet, be projected as the Chief Ministerial candidate
of the NDA in the State.
The State unit of the BJP, on the other hand, claimed an equal
share of the Assembly seats, but subsequently, was inclined to leave a larger share to the
BJD at the ratio of 55 to 45 percent. They were also not in favour of projecting anyone as
the Chief Ministerial candidate.
In the 1999 Lok Sabha poll, the BJP and the BJD had contested all
the 21 Lok Sabha seats in the State sharing 9 and 12 parliamentary constituencies
respectively. While the BJP won all the 9 seats it contested, the BJD lost two seats and
secured 10 seats.
Keeping in view the relatively poor image of the ruling Congress
Party, particularly during the relief operation after the cyclone, both the alliance
partners are apparently confident of sweeping the Assembly election if they contest it
unitedly. Here also, the tussle for the sharing of power in the State brought both the
partners face to face and, finally, the BJP was left with no option but to accept the
status of a junior partner in the State by sacrificing the interest of the party in the
larger interests of the NDA Government at the Centre.
In Haryana, the BJP and the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD)
of Shri O.P.Chautala jointly contested all the ten Lok Sabha seats by sharing five each
and won all of them. The INLD did not share power at the Centre, but its leader, Shri
Chautala, became the Chief Minister of the State following the fall of the Bansi Lal
Government there. Subsequently, at the recommendation of Shri Chautala to have fresh
elections, the Assembly was dissolved before the completion of its term.
The strategy of Shri Chautala was to ensure the continuance of
his Government for five years in view of the voters' mood as seen in the Lok Sabha poll.
However, before the dissolution of the Assembly, there was an understanding between the
BJP and the INLD that they would contest the Assembly election jointly sharing 35 and 55
seats respectively in the house of 90.
But, the INLD leaders, while backtracking from the understanding,
were not ready to leave more than 25 seats to the BJP once the election was announced in
the State. Here also, the BJP was compelled to sacrifice the party’s interest in the
State in the larger interest of the NDA at the Centre.
The developments in the States are clear indications that
the BJP has not yet been able to devise ways of keeping its self-seeking, non-co-operative
and belligerent partners under control; as a result, its existing support base has also
become susceptible to slip from its grip. The wrangling over seat sharing with its allies
has projected an image of the BJP as a helpless big brother. Shri J.P.Mathur, a senior
Vice-President of the party, was quoted as saying: " The only loser in the seat
adjustment is the BJP".
There is a genuine apprehension in party circles that internal
sabotage in Bihar within the allies may not be ruled out. This could also endanger the
prospect of the NDA freeing the State from the "Jungal Raj". If the situation
persists and the BJP continues to succumb to the pressure of its junior partners due to
the compulsions of coalition politics, the forward march of the party may take a reverse
direction.
The Rashtriya Janata Dal supremo, Shri Laloo Yadav, is no more
known as a demoralised leader due to the chaotic situation within the NDA in Bihar. His
men have already started floating the news as appeared in sections of the press that
"Socialists, Communists, and fighters for social justice, including the Congress, are
bound to unite to topple the applecart in Delhi".
Though this may be bragging and wishful-thinking by the anti NDA
forces, the situation definitely requires an in-depth analysis on the part of the NDA
partners in general and the BJP in particular.
