Sri Lanka Update 35: “Talking Peace and Preparing for War”

South Asia Analysis Group

Note No.156

13. 08. 2002

Sri Lanka: "Talking Peace and Preparing for War" -Update 35

by Dr. S. Chandrasekharan

It is now more than five months since the cease-fire between the Sri Lankan Government and LTTE came into force on February 23, 2002. All the dead lines upto D + 160 days have lapsed and it is necessary now to make a balance sheet.

The surprising feature is that the cease fire has held, given the vague nature of the ceasefire agreement and perhaps this truce is the longest since the beginning of the conflict. Black July passed off peacefully for the first time.

The SLMM (Sri Lankan Monitoring Mission) made an upbeat statement on the ceasefire- that “both parties have shown their dedication to peace in the following manner- steady implementation of the cease-fire agreement, admirable restraint in volatile situations and achievement in cooperation and consideration”.

One can understand the SLMM’s eagerness to continue the cease-fire despite all round violations-but what cannot be understood is that why it should go out of the way to justify certain actions of both parties which are violative of the cease-fire agreement . See the following statements of SLMM.

Balance of power between the parties is extremely important since it can be considered as the corner stone of the cease fire agreement. Normal recruitment and training is therefore to be regarded not as a preparation of war.

Both parties have managed to remove some of the uncertainty and distrust created by decades of conflict and started to create mutual confidence. It is the conclusion of the SLMM that both parties look at war as a thing of the past. The Government and the LTTE are for peace.

The last statement is a questionable one. Sun Tzu has said “In peace prepare for war”. This is exactly what both parties are doing.

*   The Sri Lankan Army has constructed new camps and bunkers in Jaffna peninsula.

*   The Navy is strengthening its presence in the strategically located Kayts Island to monitor the movement of people to other islands.

* The Air force besides doing recce in LTTE held areas is expanding its base in Batticola.

*    Some 5000 recruits are being trained in situ in North and East by the Sri Lankan Army.

*   The LTTE has continued its training and stockpiling of arms.

*   Recruitment to LTTE is still taking place and there have been many instances where the parents of boys, girls who have been taken away, approaching the SLMM representatives to get their children back.

*     The Amnesty International has formally approached the political head of LTTE in Wanni in June 19 to stop recruiting children. The LTTE had made a statement that they have taken a policy decision that only recruits aged above 18 will be taken – an open admission that recruitment is taking place.

*     A major confrontation was averted in the sea when the LTTE boats were searched by the Sri Lankan Navy, as arms transfers are still being made between North and East.

The point to be noted is that should both sides still continue recruitment and strengthening their respective positions, if they are sincerely looking for long term peace? Sri Lanka is facing no external threat and India is fully supportive of Sri Lanka in its search for peace and the ceasefire agreement despite the Indian ban on the LTTE. The LTTE is also in no danger of being overwhelmed or being deprived of the dominant position it holds even in areas not under their control. They have successfully made the Sri Lankan Army to vacate most of the public places, schools and    temples . The SLMM has officially stated that out of 159 places of worship listed only 2 are still occupied by the Government forces and three partially occupied. Only 19 places of worship are still not accessible to the public as they are located in “High Security Zones”.

PEACE TALKS WHEN? It looks that both sides are in no hurry to commence the talks in Bangkok. The LTTE continues to maintain that there can be no peace talks until full normalcy is restored in North and East and the organisation deproscribed. The Sri Lankan Government has taken the stand that deproscription cannot be done until firm dates for talks are agreed to.

The second point of difference arises over the agenda of the talks – should it talk about the formation of an interim government in North and East (LTTE position) or should it talk simultaneously on the core issues to a final solution along with an interim administration. (SL Govt’s View).

The fact of the matter is that the LTTE is running its own administration in the areas held by them. See the following:

*     There are 14 Police stations run by LTTE in Wanni, along with many posts. Two more are being opened in LTTE held areas in Trincomali and Batticola.

*     Criminal administration is being done by LTTE under their own code of Criminal Procedure Code.

*    There are Tamil Eelam Magistrate Courts.

*      There is regular taxation - a fact admitted by the LTTE political chief in one of the rare interviews when he was candid enough to admit that it is an essential ingredient in running the administration.

*    Tamil Eelam civil service officers are being recruited.

What happens when the entire North and East is brought under LTTE control? The LTTE believes that the present infrastructure ‘ they have built up on Wanni ’could be expanded to the areas that would be brought under their administrative control, in the interim administration – Will this be acceptable to the ‘ Sri Lankan Government’?

Ranil Wickremesinghe the Prime Minister is therefore facing a dilemma. Privately, before the ceasefire talks began, he had promised the Norwegian facilitators that the LTTE could run an interim administration in the North and East for a period of two years or more before substantive talks could take place. This is what the LTTE is demanding.

It is well known that the President and Prime Minister do not seem to be on the same wavelength with regard to negotiations with the LTTE. Differences are aired in the open and vicious charges are freely aired.

In the run up to the talks, the situation has developed from bad to worse. One of the Cabinet Ministers of UNF made a preposterous charge that President Chandrika carried a bomb in her bag in one of the Cabinet Meetings. Prime Minister Wickremesingh was not willing to deny or condemn it and Chandrika was obviously shocked. In turn she called the Cabinet Ministers as ‘worms, snakes and pigs’.

Prime Minister Wickremesinghe on the other hand is contemplating a snap election which if conducted will be the third in two years. He is also set to strip the President of some of the sweeping powers. A key aspect is the proposed amendment to the Constitution of Article 70, which vests power with the President to dissolve the Parliament upon the expiration of one year. Sometime ago the ruling party was planning to march and surround President’s residence to make her resign in a style similar to what happened to Milosevic in Serbia. Fortunately better sense prevailed and the idea was dropped.

The overall picture that one gets is that the Sinhala majority lacks unity and a definite strategy for the ongoing ethnic crisis. On the other hand the LTTE is playing its hand, carefully and steadily according to a plan. What it would demand finally has already been made clear by Balasingam in his interview with the Tamil Guardian available in the Tamil net of the 4^th June. They still adhere to three of the four demands made in the Thimpu talks of eighties – of the recognition of Tamils as a nation, a homeland of their own and their inherent right of self determination. This is accepted by all Tamils now including the TNA.

The Sinhala majority on the other hand is unwilling to come to terms with itself to have a consensus on what could be offered to “meet the aspirations of Tamils”.

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