South Asia Analysis Group


Note No. 157

 14. 09. 2002

  

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Sri Lankan Peace talks. What next? - Update No. 36

by Dr. S. Chandrasekharan

Peace talks between Sri Lankan Government and the LTTE are due to start on 16 September, 2002 for three days. The venue chosen is Sattahip, a fishing village close to U Tapo Airbase in Thailand.  LTTE has since been de proscribed thus removing the last hurdle for the talks to begin.

In welcoming the talks there have been subtle variations in the statements made by USA, UK and Japan.  Philip Reeder, Dy. State department Spokesman said " A political solution to the conflict in Sri Lanka which maintains the country’s territorial integrity would be welcome by the international community including the US. This statement emphasises the territorial integrity of Sri Lanka.  The Japanese Foreign minister pledged continued assistance for humanitarian projects in the North East and stressed that Japan will spare no efforts to contribute to the reconstruction-rehabilitation of those areas once durable peace is achieved.  Here Japan wants "durable peace" before assistance could come in a big way.  This statement has been made after the Japanese embassy officials made an extensive tour of four days to the North East.  The British Foreign office Minister, Peter Hain said " We continue to encourage both sides to work towards a negotiated settlement that meets the aspirations of all communities. " The emphasis is on meeting the aspirations of all the communities.  Peter Hain got into trouble earlier once when he said that while Eelam will receive no recognition, "the principle of self determination and control over most if not all the key policies affecting daily life would be supported by the international community."

One cannot but sympathise with Prime minister Ranil Wickremasinghe for the problems he is facing in going ahead with the talks.

* Firstly he is facing a tough opponent in the LTTE which is very clear on how to go about in achieving their objectives.  So far they have been successful, but it will not be that easy anymore when the peace talks go beyond preliminaries to an interim administration set up and other substantive issues.  He has indicated that the interim administration should be according to the constitution of the country.  He was vague on a permanent solution as one "without dividing the country and upholding democratic ideals."

* Secondly, the biggest problem he has, is with his own President who is out to make it as difficult for him as possible in all aspects of administration.  The President openly declared that she was against de proscribing the LTTE. The latest, one heard was, that she has insisted on one of her representatives being in the official team to the Bangkok talks.  This confrontational politics had gone to such an extent that the ruling UNF had decided to issue a gazette notification curtailing the powers of the President particularly in the matter of dismissal of the lawfully elected government after one year of its existence. Luckily better sense prevailed.

* Thirdly the opposition has taken recourse to seek the support of the Buddhist monks in delaying if not scuttling the peace process.  On September 2, under the aegis of the newly formed ‘National Conference of Buddhist Monks’ hundreds of monks demonstrated in Colombo denouncing the Peace Broker Norway and demanding the government to abandon plans to lift the ban on LTTE ahead of the talks.  Media reports indicate that President Chandrika assured the monks that she will prevent the lifting of the ban.  Wickremasinghe is fully aware of the powerful influence of the Buddhist clergy in Sri Lankan politics and in ethnic strife. His Defence Minister had called on the Malwatte Mahanayake Thera to obtain his blessings of the peace process and assured him that the government’s decision to lift the ban on the LTTE would not be harmful to national security.

Perhaps most surprising and important was the visit of Richard Armitage to the North.

In his one day visit to Sri Lanka, Richard Armitage visited Jaffna and saw some of the worst scenes of destruction.  He was heard to recall his own experience in Vietnam.  He visited the second biggest town in the north, Chavakachery besides meeting a TNA delegation led by veteran politician Sampanthan.  On return to Colombo, he met Prime Minister Wickremasinghe and Kadirgamar, the latter in his capacity as President Kumaratunga’s international Affairs Advisor.

Armitage’s visit has been variously described as ‘symbolic’ by the media and one of the well-known foreign weekly has described it as interest of USA in taking over the Trincomalee as a base for their fleet as Diego Garcia is too far away and USA would need a good base nearer home in Asia! .  It looks that Armitage’s visit was more to show USA’s continuing interest in the peace process and the need to carry on with the peace talks despite hurdles.  There is a message to LTTE too as USA has made it clear that a solution has to be within a united Sri Lanka and the peace talks will have to be carried on.  It is to be noted that USA and for that matter all other countries have not de proscribed the LTTE.

The Talks begin on  16th September.  The LTTE has already announced the composition of the team.  Besides Balasingham and wife who would act as Secretary, there are two others who are not so well known.  The first is Vishwanathan Rudrakumar, UK based lawyer and son of former Jaffna Mayor Raja Viswanathan.  He is the informal legal adviser to the LTTE.  The other is the Australia based political scientist and constitutional expert Dr. Maheshwaran. The Sri Lankan government team has since been announced.  It includes Prof. G.L. Peiris, the Constitutional minister , other ministers Milinda Moragoda and Rauf. Hakeem of SLMC and Bernard Gunatilake from the Peace Secretariat.   The surprise inclusion is that of Rauf Hakeem who had earlier declared that he will be there to protect the interests of Muslims.  The LTTE had privately objected to his inclusion as it has been always part of the strategy of successive Sri Lankan governments to show that the Muslims are separate from other ethnic Tamils though their mother tongue is Tamil.  ( Surprisingly these tactics did not work with the Christians).  It is known that Rauf Hakeem travelled all the way to London and explain his position to Balasingham.

No problems could be expected in the first round of talks. This is understood by both parties and the first round will focus on the modalities.  Later the tough issues like "interim administration" will crop up. The LTTE team would also insist on the economic reconstruction and the full implementation of the cease fire agreement besides pressing for an interim administration immediately.

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