South Asia Analysis Group


Note No. 162

25. 10. 2002

  

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Sri Lanka: Strains in Cease-fire and Cohabitation on the eve of the second round of talks: Update- 37

by Dr. S. Chandrasekharan

The second round of talks begins in Thailand on 31st October. Reports indicate that the LTTE team is being strengthened with the addition of two well known individuals- Tamil Chelvan, political head of the LTTE and Karuna, head of the military wing in the eastern province. This addition is no surprise as the LTTE had to induct representatives who know the local conditions as all the three who represented them in the first round were foreign based and the present round is expected to deal with details of the Joint task force of Sri Lankan Security forces and the LTTE, discussed in the previous meeting, acceleration of the resettlement of internally displaced persons and the presence of high security zones of the Sri Lankan forces.

Anton Balasingham arrived a fortnight in advance in Wanni to discuss with LTTE chief Prabakaran and others as a prelude to the second round. This time he took the normal route through Colombo and not through a third country. The Norwegian team led by Vidar Hegelsen along with Eric Solheim and others are also in Sri Lanka and the team is expected to meet Prabakaran before the commencement of the third round of talks. President Chandrika cancelled a scheduled meeting with the team on 23rd on the ground that she had to attend a public rally at Nugegoda and also a cabinet meeting. She attended neither and the media reports say that it was an intended snub.

The Cease fire continues to hold on despite serious hiccups. In one week over ten people were killed in cease-fire related violations and thanks to the patient efforts of Sri Lankan Monitoring Mission, the situation in all the cases was brought under control. Maj. Gen. Trond Furuhode, chief of SLMM issued a strongly worded statement which said that the incidents showed how irresponsible and destructive elements were trying to break the confidence that has been carefully built up during the last eight months of truce.

There were three major incidents, although two were connected to each other. The first was the arrest of 22 LTTE cadres by the Security forces in the area under their control in Trincomalee. Of these while 20 were let off, two were produced in the court and it was alleged that while in detention they were severely beaten up. The LTTE in return arrested six soldiers who strayed into the LTTE area with weapons. The soldiers were released after the two LTTE cadres were let off. But in a related incident, on October 9, the STF fired at a crowd that had assembled to protest against the beating of the LTTE cadres at Kanjiramkudah in Batticola. Seven in the crowd were killed and many more were injured. In another incident the Police and the Home Guards attacked civilians in Akkaraipattu, Trincomalee with grenades when three were killed and sixty others were wounded.

The incidents were so serious that even a mild-mannered person like Sampanthan, parliamentarian representing Trincomalee, was forced to say that the "security of the Tamil people can no longer be left in the hands of Sinhala dominated Army and Police" and that the "security should be entrusted to the Tamil youths."

In the first round Balasingham played his cards very well. In the opening speech itself Balasingham made a persuasive case for the administration of the North and East to be handed over to the LTTE and he followed it up in his Press conference with another fine performance in giving the impression that LTTE has given up the demand for a separate Tamil Home land.

In making out a case for the North-East administration he said

* The LTTE is the legitimate and authentic representative of the Tamil people.

* The LTTE has lived, fought and suffered with and for the people throughout the turbulent times of the war.

* The LTTE has a comprehensive knowledge of the socio-economic needs confronting the Tamil people.

* The LTTE has built an effective administrative structure for more than ten years which has sustained the social cohesion and law and order.

Therefore, he argued that the LTTE should play a leading and pivotal role in administration as well as the economic development of the Northeast.

In what was perceived as a softening of LTTE’s position, Balasingham at the end of the talks said that "The LTTE does not operate in the concept of separate state . . . we operate with the concept of homeland and self determination.’ He also used the word "autonomy" but gave vague definitions that autonomy could mean federal, confederal or regional. To us, it does not look that LTTE has dropped its demand for a separate state. Not yet anyway. Of late they have reiterated the three Thimpu demands and have maintained that the solution should meet the "just aspirations" of Tamils. Nowhere have they defined what the just aspirations would mean. In another connection while referring to the role of India, Balasingham said that a final solution should recognise the Tamil rights. He was quick to add that if autonomy was rejected, then a fight for "political independence and statehood is the only last resort." His statement could best be described as tactical as he could not have said otherwise if the peace talks are to continue.

Crisis in Cohabitation: Ranil Wickremasinghe is somehow under the impression that President Chandrika is the main stumbling block in the ongoing peace talks and the latter has made no effort to dispel this impression either. His party’s drive to strip the President of her powers by the draft 19th amendment has run into difficulties from two different quarters. After Chandrika warned the members of SLFP that she would take action against the SLFP who vote in favour of the 19th amendment, many of them developed cold feet and were not willing to go with the amendment. It was realised by the government that it did not have the two thirds majority to get the amendment through. The Supreme Court in its order on 22nd October informed the legislature that it will have to have a nation wide referendum if the powers of the President were to be curtailed. The ruling UNP of the Prime minister is not interested in a referendum and would prefer a snap poll. Legal experts say that only the President has the powers to call for fresh elections. Either of the two courses would involve unnecessary expenditure which Sri Lanka cannot afford now and in either case the momentum that has been gained in the ongoing peace talks would be lost.

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