NEPAL: Stalemate continues: Update
27.
by Dr. S. Chandrasekharan
With the King and the main two political parties unwilling to take a
forward step towards reconciliation, Nepal’s political environment
continues to be in a stalemate. The King apparently buoyed up by the
positive indications he has received from the Maoists on dialogue does not
perhaps need the help of the political parties at this juncture.
Both could be wrong. As we have said before, in the interest of
domestic stability, the King should find a way to rope in the sulking
political parties and the latter should also, instead of insisting on
unworkable demands work towards bringing Nepal back on the rails of
democracy and constitutional monarchy.
In the continuing operations against Maoists, the Security forces
suffered a set back when the Chief of Armed Police was shot dead in broad
day light on the ring road near Lalitpur on 26th January.
A critical operation now taking place in Syangja against the Maoists may
end up in a major success for the security forces. At least the
areas of western Syangja, Tanahu, Gulmi, and Arghakanchi will have less
pressure from the Maoists.
There are indications that the Government is preparing for eventual
dialogue with the Maoists. Despite statements to the contrary by
people like Padma Ratna Tuladhar who insist that the Maoists will not talk
to the incumbent government as it does not have "constitutional
legitimacy," the government is preparing a broad strategy for talks
with the Maoists.
While the operations against the Maoists continue, the government has
prepared a detailed plan for rehabilitating the Maoists in the event of an
agreement. The scheme known as DPRR (Disarm, Demobilise,
Rehabilitate and Reintegrate), optimistically hopes that the misguided
Maoists could be persuaded to realise that there is an alternative to war.
Under the programme, five camps one each in the five development
regions will be started where training will be given for income generating
skills and "to wipe out their war mind set," making them fit to
return to normal life. Regional administrators will be posted to look
after the camps.
The first camp will be started in the Midwestern region, the one most
affected by the insurgency and will be extended to others. There
have been promises of aid of many donor countries.
The question is whether the programme will work. It is too
premature to think of rehabilitation when the dialogue between the
government and the Maoists has not begun. Secondly, the incidents
perpetrated by the Maoists continue to be on the rise. Unless the
Maoists are made to feel that armed insurrection/terrorism will bring no
dividends, they are unlikely to agree to any settlement or
rehabilitation. Lastly, by one assessment there are over 4000 armed
Maoist cadres. They are unlikely to give up their guns unless they are
absorbed in some form in the existing security structure.
Kathmandu Post of 11th Jan. carries an interesting article
on the issue whether the Royal Nepalese Army should be under the control
of the King or parliament. The surprise is that such a discussion
should take place at all. The debate has probably arisen over the
purported statement of the Maoist Chief Pushpa Kamal Dahal that the army
"should be under the leadership and control -"ideologically,
constitutionally and practically- of the elected representative or
institution. " G.P.Koirala is also said to subscribe to this view as
no one knows better than he the frustration he had in getting the support
of the army to deal with the Maoists earlier during his tenure as Prime
minister.
The killing of the chief of the newly raised Armed Police Force in
Kathmandu valley on the 26 January is a major setback for the Security
Forces: The Inspector General Police of the Armed Police Force,
Krishna Prasad Shrestha, his wife and the body guard were shot dead by the
Maoists while they were having a morning walk on the ring road near
Bhanimandal, Lalitpur. The incident is serious for many
reasons. Firstly, he was heading a police force that was raised and
trained a year and a half ago specifically to counter the Maoists.
Secondly he was the senior most officer who has been killed in the
conflict so far since February 1996.. Thirdly, this happened in the
capital where the security situation is said to be fully under
control. Fourthly this is certain to cause panic and affect the
morale of people who have taken refuge in the capital from the outskirts
to escape the terror of the Maoists. Lastly, if the Maoists perceive that
they have an upper hand and that they could force the government to talk
to them on their terms, the likelihood of any peaceful solution to the
ongoing problem will get more remote.
The Political Parties are neither doing themselves nor the country any
good by making constant threats. It is understandable that G.P.Koirala
and his party are disappointed and the King is said to be in no mood to
consider their demands. What he (Koirala) does not realise is that if he
had spent more time on good governance rather than fighting with the rival
factions within his party, matters would not have come to such a pass that
he has to plead with the King to reinstate the Parliament. Some of
the recent statements made by him and his party show their frustration and
helplessness.
* He said that the import of the Belgian arms meant to counter the
Maoists could be misused as the army is not under the purview of the
Parliament. It is acknowledged almost by everyone that the security
forces need better and more sophisticated weapons to deal with the
insurgency.
* In one of the public meetings he said "that the people no
longer have trust in the traditional army. They do not think that it is
working for democracy"
* Nara Hari Acharya, one of the leaders of Koirala’s party, in an
indirect threat to the King said that "the constituent assembly is
an alternative to find the way-out from the present crisis dogging the
nation."
* In another reference to the King, he said on 17 Jan, that no one
can take away the rights of the people no matter how hard one may try.
* After a meeting of the four political parties to set up a joint
committee to chart out the modalities of protest, G.P.Koirala along with
Madhav Nepal said that "there was a growing need for agitation
against the active involvement of the King in politics.
* In another of his outbursts , Koirala exhorted the students in a
rally at Birgunj on 24 Jan, to join the movement against the continued
state of uncertainty and anarchy in Nepal.
UML heading for a split? It was in 1998 that the UML split during
the sixth general convention at Nepalgunj. Four years later, the two
factions got together though it is still not clear what compromises the
two groups made for the merger. This time again on the eve of the
seventh general convention in Janakpur the party looked to be heading for
a split. As was the practice, the party’s organisational committee
had already prepared the papers and endorsed informally by the members of
the central committee. However, one of the leaders K.P.Sharma Oli
insisted that the general convention should elect the central committee
members including the president and the general secretary. The post
of President was specially created to accommodate late Man Mohan Adhikari
who was far too senior to all others and the decision was not to fill up
the post. This is being questioned by Oli who wants more democracy (sic)
within the party in choosing the leaders. There have been open
clashes between Madhav Nepal and Oli and one other leader Bam Dev Gautam
appeared to side with Oli. However indications are that the Party may not
repeat the split that was seen in the sixth convention as the leaders
appear to understand that there are other immediate national problems that
need to be dealt with.
The list of incidents involving the Maoists from Update 26 of 8th
January 2003 will be appended to the next update.
