Nepal: Cease-fire and after: What are the Maoists up to? Update-30

South Asia Analysis Group

Note No. 182

22. 04. 2003

Nepal: Cease-fire and after: What are the Maoists up to? Update-30

by Dr. S. Chandrasekharan

The situation in Nepal is a little confusing and one does not get the confidence that the current developments would lead to some stability. The political parties in Nepal are singing different tunes- G.P.Koirala of Nepali Congress continues to demand the revival of the parliament, which is not feasible. Deuba of rival Nepali Congress wants his government to be revived. Madhav Nepal of UML wants an all-party government to negotiate with the Maoists, while negotiations have already begun. The Maoists on the other hand, while giving the impression of flexibility continue to insist on an interim government and elections to a constitutional assembly.

It looks that the political parties are losing ground. They maintain that the Chand government formed by the King is illegal and have refused for a second time to attend an all-party meeting convened by the Prime minister. The King has so far refused to meet the parties’ representatives collectively though he has met them individually and listened to them.

Girija Koirala’s statements are becoming more and more strident and he has nothing constructive to say. He is unwilling to forget and forgive the rival Nepali Congress leader Deuba and his daily “monarchy bashing” will do him no good. There is the danger of both the groups of Nepali Congress getting irrelevant and India will have to take note of this development.

The Maoists on the other hand are going about their work systematically with the singular objective of winning over the people. With the cease-fire in progress they have been freely moving and consolidating their position. They have been holding round table talks with the people and the representatives of political parties from the village to the district levels. Their meetings are well attended and the one they held at Tundikhel at Kathmandu after the leaders came over ground was a massive success.   It could be explained that people thronged the meetings out of curiosity, but there is an under current of admiration among all sections of people.

For all outward appearances, the Maoists give the impression of going in for a republic- but at another level they have been keeping a line open through Minister Pun. It has come to light that Minster Pun was taking orders directly and regularly from the King and PM Chand and his cabinet were just kept informed of the developments. The Maoists have explained on more than one occasion that they are talking to minister Pun not as representative of the government but as that of the King.

The leftist parties are playing their own game. While tying up with the Nepali Congress on a common programme of confrontation with the King (which is yet to take off and may not at all) they are negotiating with the Maoists separately. The Nepali Congress is not aware of what is going on.

The Maoists agreed to a code of conduct during the cease-fire and the peace talks.   After intense behind the scene negotiations, the Maoists and the Government agreed on a code of conduct that came into force on 12 March.

There were many contentious issues that had to be sorted out. An examination of the demands of Maoists in the run up to the agreement gave the impression that they were looking at the Sri Lankan model. The first issue was the demand of the demobilsation of the armed forces in the Maoist controlled areas. In Sri Lanka the LTTE was holding physically large tracts of territory with total administrative control and this was not the case in the Maoists dominated areas of Dolpa-Rolpa region. Any concession in this regard would have resulted in a “state within a state” as has happened in Sri Lanka.

There was a demand from the Government’s side (as reported in the media) that the Maoists should refrain from all “anti monarchy activities”. It is not clear what it meant but even demanding a republic would have attracted this clause. The Maoists did not agree.

The third was the issue of release of jailed Maoists and withdrawal of criminal cases against Maoist leaders. Having been bitten once, the government was hesitant to release them and rightly wanted the talks to get stabilsed before any move could be made. The Maoist’ side were keen to get five of their top central leaders now in custody to be released before substantive talks could begin. Some criminal cases have been filed even after cease-fire against Prachanda and Baburam Bhattarai.

Another demand of the Maoists was to involve international humanitarian agencies for monitoring the cease-fire and the talks. The government rejected this.

The code of conduct was more in the nature of guidelines for both the parties.   Some major points of agreement were:

-         Armed forces are not to be used against Maoists.

-         Maoists are to be released gradually and the latter in turn to release all persons in their custody.

-         Display of weapons by the Maoists should be discontinued. All types of forcible collection of funds to be stopped.

-         Both sides should refrain from violence.

-         Restrictions in food supply in Maoist dominated areas are to be lifted. (The government is planning to import 1500 tons of food grains for the Maoists separately)

-         Both sides will cooperate in rehabilitating displaced people.

-         There will be no restriction on movement of people.

-         A monitoring team will be formed with representatives of both sides and others mutually agreed upon to monitor the whole peace process. The government has already appointed Minister Pun and Kamal Thapa, central committee member of RPP for the team from their side.

The main draw back of the code of conduct is lack of proper mechanism to deal with violations of cease- fire and resolution of disputes. There could be arrest of Maoist cadres for breach of law. Does the monitoring group have the clout to order the release? Intelligence reports indicate that Maoists are regrouping and no mention is seen made in the code of conduct about training. There are already allegations of Maoists importing arms and ammunition. One way would be to appoint neutral facilitators in all the districts. Padma Ratna Tuladhar, a human rights activist is already working as a facilitator. He is close to the Maoists and to that extent his credibility will also be in question.

The five member negotiating team of the Maoists consisting of Dr. Baburam Bhattarai, Ram Bahadur Thapa, Krishna Bahadur Mahara, Matrika Yadav and Dev Gurung gave a Press conference on March 29 at Kathmandu. Subsequently the team spread out to various parts of the country and addressed public meetings.

Some of the significant statements by them are given below with our comments.

* The King is maintaining control in the old regime and we want him to play a role in the interest of the people. If he fails he will be lost into oblivion –Bhattarai. (an indirect threat that he should behave)

* We believe that the political parties and the representatives of the civil society should not feel left out of the peace process-Bhattarai (while mention of political parties is understandable, representatives of civil society could mean anything- from minorities, to women’s rights to Dalits.)

* The present system represents formal democracy but there should be participation of people at all levels - Bhattarai (democratic centralism- “from the people to the people”?)

* The multiparty system we are talking about should have representation from various groups, castes and regions. The bottom line is people’s sovereignty.- Bhattarai (What the Maoists are looking for is their brand of democracy.)

* The army should be under people’s representatives.- Badal. (On this issue even some of the political parties may concur. It may be recalled that G.P.Koirala was driven to despair and exasperation when the late King refused to let the army be used to put down the Maoists insurgency

* Madhesis (Plains people) have been neglected historically and been treated as second-class citizens. Matrika Yadav (This is meant to win over the Terains who have been discriminated against in all the previous regimes.)

* Constituent assembly is the means and not the end.- Bhattarai (their ultimate goal is “people’s republic)

* There exists two states with two armies under their control and three major political forces- the Monarchical force, the Marxists and the political parties who believe in parliamentary democracy. There will be no political solution if one of the three is left out in the peace talks. - Bhattarai (In the run up to the talks on code of conduct, the government side strongly objected to the use of the term “state” by the Maoists in describing themselves. Subsequently, the government appears to have resigned them selves to this position. Minister Pun the coordinator admitted as much on March 30 when he said “There is a balance of power between the government and the Maoists. Both the forces have their own armies and weapons to justify the existence of two state powers.” This is a major concession given by the government to the Maoists even before the talks had begun and is likely to have serious repercussions later.)

* Republican communism is the long-term goal of the Maoists- but we are ready to compromise. - Bhattarai (compromise to what and how long? The Maoists may make tactical course changes but their goal is clear. Mao had always distinguished between tactics where one could be flexible and the strategy.)

* The King should make sacrifices. Best would be, if he abdicates. If he is unwilling, we will talk to him and try to reach a compromise. - Bhattarai. The King should renounce his throne if he is interested in politics.- Mahara.

* Our country has to be saved from the imperialist nature of big countries. - Bhattarai. (The Maoists have sought an appointment with the US Ambassador in Nepal. So far there has been no response.)

* The Royal Nepal Army and Peoples Liberation Army ( Maoist) should be brought under the control of the people’s representatives. They should be united to create a strong force for the nation. - Bhattarai. (One of the points that will be insisted by the Maoists is that in the event of any settlement the Maoists cadres should be absorbed in the security structure of the state)

The statements made by the Maoists are disturbing. It could be, that it is just a bargaining position. But the goal of the Maoists should be clear. The best would be for the King and the political parties of all hues join hands and take a firm position. Unfortunately, the King appears to have made up his mind to deal directly with the Maoists and the political parties also seem to have come to believe that there is no need for a constitutional monarchy. In the fight between the King and the political parties, the Maoists will be the gainers. It is there for all to see.

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