NEPAL: Peace Process Survives "so far": Update
34
by Dr. S. Chandrasekharan
Following the Dhungana incident, there were fears that the peace
process may collapse and that the Maoists may go back to the jungles to
renew the war. The Maoist leaders did go back to the jungle in the
central region but not for renewing the war but to work out the future
strategy with the newly installed government.
The fears of the analysts and the media that cease fire may collapse
were unjustified for the following reasons.
* Maoists feel that the current political environment is conducive to
capture power through elections. Initially there were demands that an
interim administration may be set up with the Maoists being given the
dominant role similar to the one that is being created in Sri
Lanka. It was subsequently given up.
* The political parties are in disarray. Their agitation against
"regression" has not picked up momentum and while they are
busy with mock parliament sessions and other related symbolic opposition
to the government, the Maoists are busy consolidating their position in
the rural areas and are making inroads into urban areas where the UML
(United Marxist League) of Madhav Nepal has significant following.
It is not clear yet that in the event of any election, whether the
Maoists would occupy the political space left by the Nepali Congress or
the UML, but it appears that it is the latter which would lose heavily.
* The Nepalese Army in the meantime has strengthened its position
with additional recruitment and the strength is reportedly around the
region of 70,000. Sophisticated arms have started flowing in and many
international actors like the United Kingdom, the USA and the EU have
stepped in. Specialised counter insurgency training has been given to
some units. Aggressive patrolling, uncalled for in a cease fire
situation and continued activity in remote regions in the name of
winning the "hearts of the people" give the impression of an
army itching for a fight. For the Maoists, a more confident and
assertive Army is not to their liking in the short run. Attacks on
security posts like that happened in Jumla or Dang with hundreds of
cadres swarming over the place may not be possible anymore. A
military solution is no longer an option for both sides.
* Another important issue is the India factor. India continues
to treat the Maoists as a ‘terrorist outfit’ and there has been no
change. India cannot be happy with the way the King has managed to
keep the political parties out of the decision making process in this
crucial phase. An all-inclusive approach would have been better
for the King, the political parties and the neighbours who are
interested in Nepal’s stability. What is forgotten is that Maoists
would thrive on a divided polity and the position of the King would also
get undermined in course of time. Appointing a supposedly pro India
leader like Surya Bahadur Thapa cannot bring India closer to the King as
is being speculated. The democratic parties like Nepali Congress (
both factions) are not doing themselves or democracy any good by
remaining divided and demanding meaningless solutions. Their efforts to
convene informal Parliament and Upper House sessions, passing irrelevant
resolutions are to say the least, comical.
The Dhungana incident was avoidable. Soon after the cease fire
agreement, the Maoists established a contact office at Kathmandu, with
Bharat Dhungana as the secretary of the office. The contact office served
as the secretariat of the Maoists to interface with the press, the public,
political parties and the bureaucracy. Following a complaint from
another Maoist of extortion, the security forces arrested Dhungana from
his office to their headquarters for questioning. Dunghana claims
that he was blind folded and tortured. Dhungana was released on the
personal intervention of the Prime minister, who in a separate interview
conceded that "some one acting as in charge of the office exclusively
set up for facilitating the dialogue process should not be detained
despite his being implicated in the extortion charge."
Following the arrest, the Maoists closed their contact office and the
offices of their affiliates ANNFSU (R)-(All Nepal National Free Students’
Union-Revolutionary at Kathmandu. The Leaders as well as other activists
in trade and student unions went into hiding. The negotiating team leaders
left Kathmandu one by one and the government fearing attacks stepped up
security checks at places all over the country.
The Dhungana incident was avoidable and luckily it did not result in
renewed clashes. There was no need to have "aggressive"
surveillance on the contact office at Kathmandu, just like the way the
Pakistanis do on Indian diplomats in Islamabad.
Uncertainty surrounding the peace process: Following the debacle in
the second round of talks when the government representatives agreed to
keep army patrolling within five kilometers of their outposts and
retracting thereafter, the Maoist side has insisted major pre conditions
and response before the third round of talks could begin. These
demands were given in writing to the facilitators. These were
1. Implementation of the agreement arrived at in the first and second
round of talks.
2. Whether the decisions taken at the third round of talks would be
acceptable to the Palace and the Army.
3. Expulsion of US Army specialists from Nepal now training the
Nepalese Army..
4. The government should make it known a clear political agenda for
the third round.
It appears that discussions and the agreements in the previous rounds
were not recorded properly and this helped the government to retract from
their oral commitments, although some of them like the restriction on Army
were announced during the Press Conference in the presence of both
sides. Belatedly, the current representative for the peace talks on
behalf of the government, Kamal Thapa has conceded the principle of
restriction on the Army.
It looks that the infra structure to over see cease fire agreement and
the ensuing peace talks to ensure proper implementation and remedial
action is rather weak and this is likely to create more complications in
the peace process. The law and order situation has to be carefully
monitored and the latest incident of the killing of Amar Lama on 27th
July, (more details awaited) does not create any confidence for the public
or the political parties.
We have said before and it is to be emphasised again that the
government of Nepal should have a clear strategy in dealing with the
Maoists and its absence would only help the Maoists who appear to have a
clearer agenda, in getting away with what they want.
