NEPAL: Is Nepal shifting towards a new strategy?

South Asia Analysis Group

Note No. 200

17. 10. 2003

NEPAL: Is Nepal shifting towards a new strategy? Update 38

by Dr. S. Chandrasekharan

In view of the continuing political crisis and resurgence of Maoist activities, it is seen that Nepal has finally settled down to a new strategy to meet the current crisis.

The reasons for taking this step appear to be

* The King is in no mood to accommodate the agitating political parties who have been demanding restoration of the parliament and the formation of an all party government to meet the current crisis. The King has come round to the view that neither the restoration nor an appointment of an all party government would settle the issue finally as there would continue to be internal squabbles over leadership and sharing of power which in turn would add to political instability now seen.

* The agitation of the five political parties against "October 4 regression " appears to have lost steam and has not had the desired impact on the public or on the government. Even from the beginning, the agitation was more in the urban centres and not in the villages and in the growing disturbances caused by the Maoists, people have started looking at the agitation of the political parties as one of a nuisance and nothing more.

* There are differences of opinion within the two major parties the CPN (UML) and the Nepali Congress of G.P.Koirala and some of the senior members in the parties have questioned the wisdom of continuing the agitation in the face of a bigger threat emanating from the Maoists.

* Differences of opinion between the two major parties have also surfaced and the mutual trust that was present at the beginning of the movement is no longer there. The chances are that the differences would grow which would have a negative impact on the movement itself.

* The King has assessed that the threat to his position is not from the agitating political parties and the principal menace coming from the Maoists should be dealt with first. Ironically, in the Panchayat days before the 1990 revolution, the monarchy felt threatened not by the communists but by the democratic forces and every effort was made to marginalise if not liquidate them. The effects can be seen now with the leftist segment of the political space being strong and well entrenched. Nor did the democratic forces acquit themselves well when they got a chance to govern the country.

The new strategy:

The new strategy consists essentially of three elements;

First, concentrate on offensive operations against Maoists. With the strength of the Nepalese Army beefed up to 68000 plus and likely to go up to 71000 soon, the army is confident of containing the Maoists. The two incidents at Banke and Bhalubang on 11^th and 13^th October give an indication of the nature of skirmishes that are likely. In both the incidents the security forces had the better of the Maoists who attacked the police posts in great numbers only to suffer heavy casualties. In the Bhalubang encounter, besides .303s, one AK 47, LMG ( probably captured from army camp in the Dang attack) and a GPMG were recovered from the Maoists. Mortars captured in earlier attacks on army posts were also used. In both the cases, the special police men manning the posts did not run away as they used to do but stood up and fought until reinforcements arrived. In both cases advance intelligence was available.

Second- efforts are being made to revive the local bodies and conduct elections in due course. As a first step, mayors and deputy mayors have been appointed at Kathmandu, three metropolitan centres and twenty five municipalities and those appointed have been asked to form all party committees to run local administration. Efforts are also being made to lure some of the dissident party members of the five agitating parties to become heads or members of the committees. For example, s suspended UML member Buddhiraj Bajracharya has been made the mayor of Lalitpur. Elections to local bodies would counter international criticism about the absence of representative institutions at the national and local levels to some extent. It is the hope of the government that in due course it would be possible to entice some members of the agitating parties to join the government in defiance of their parties.

Third- keep on talking to the leaders of political parties which would give a semblance of the administration doing its best to have an all inclusive cabinet to meet the current crisis. Prime minister Surya bahadur Thapa met both Girija Koirala and Madhav Nepal privately and requested them to cooperate. He also attended a tea party given by Koirala to the chagrin of other partners like UML, People’s Front and Peasant and Worker’s Party in the joint agitation.

In order not to give the impression that the new initiative is an open ended one, on Bada Dasai day, Surya Bahadur Thapa announced that the government is considering holding elections in six to nine months time to resolve the current crisis. While the agitating political parties have called this move a "political stunt," this would certainly put pressure on the political parties to prepare for the elections and divert their attention from the current agitation. Whether the elections could be held at all in the present deteriorating law and order situation is another matter.

It looks that the government is taking a big gamble in looking for a military solution. Sir Jeffrey James, the special ambassador to Nepal from the United Kingdom said "We continue to believe that there can be no acceptable military solution to the conflict in Nepal." Both UK and USA have been advising the Nepal Government to seek accommodation with the agitating democratic parties. This has not been liked by the powers and one of the ministers of the government Kamal Thapa said that the diplomats should restrict themselves to diplomacy. Sir Jeffrey James was not given an audience by the King either at London or when he visited Kathmandu last month.

India has so far not made an explicit suggestion, but India’s position is well known to Nepal. In any offensive against Maoists, Indian support in all aspects will be necessary even if the operations are meant to bring the Maoists back to the negotiating table.

A list of incidents that occurred since the last update is given below as an Appendix.

Incidents

September 2003

17            In Udayapur, a group of Maoists exploded Minister for Education and Sports Hari Bahadur Thapa’s house in Gaigaht, the district headquarters.   The rebels exploded a bomb at Regional Comptroller’s Office in Biratnagar. In Palpa the rebels destroyed the office building of Irrigation Office in Gulmi’s district headquarters. In Dhanusha, the country’s only railway service - Janakpur-Jayanagar Railway - came to a halt after the rebel Maoists set a wooden bridge over the Jamuni River on fire. The rebels had exploded bombs in various parts of the Morang district.

18           Three-day nation-wide bandh was called by the Maoists in Kathmandu, Bhaktapur and Lalitpur. In Nepalgunj five security personnel – four soldiers and one policeman were killed in the worst clash between the security forces and the Maoists.

                In another exchange of fire with the rebel fighters two security personnel were injured in Dhading’s Bisaltar area of the Benighat VDC. In Dhading, the two policemen were killed and a civilian was injured when the rebel Maoists exploded a landmine at Daringal Khola of Kiranchowk Village Development Committee. In Birgunj three people of a single family were killed after the Maoists exploded a powerful bomb at their home at Bagbanna VDC-6.

               The rebels looted property from the houses of Jokhu Yadav, Devi Sharan Chaudhary, Bijaya Chaudhary and Briz Kishor Chaudhary at Belbhariya village of the Baskhor VDC.

               In Salle airport a landmine planted by the rebels on the runway was defused.

               The rebels in Bardiya destroyed a vacated police post based at Dhodahri. In Dailekh the rebels exploded a powerful bomb at the District Post Office.

                In Achham two security personnel were killed in firefights between the army and the Maoists near Kamal bazaar, one of the major business hubs of the district located about 20 kilometres east of Mangalsen, the district headquarters.

19           The rebels had attacked a patrolling team of the Royal Nepal Army from the jungle of Kuika Village Development Committee (VDC). In Surkhet a seven-year-old child and police personnel were injured in a clash involving the Maoist rebels and the security personnel.

                A group of armed Maoist rebels shot dead Sobhakhar Bhusal, 72, a RPP activist of Wangla VDC of Arghakhanchi district.   In Kapilvastu an Armed Police Force (AFP) constable was killed in a clash between an AFP troops and Maoist rebels in Surai Point jungle area along the Mahendra Highway.

               In Saptari district a group of armed Maoists shot dead Sita Ram Jha, the outgoing chairman of the Belhi VDC.   A group of Maoists blasted a police post that was empty in Chhinnamasta VDC, around 10 kilometres away from Rajbiraj, the district headquarters. The blast damaged property worth one million rupees.

In Janarkpur an armed group of Maoists killed an outgoing VDC chairman, set a house on fire and also destroyed the documents of a VDC.

An armed rebel group abducted Giridhari Shah, the outgoing chairman of Benga Shiwapur VDC and Binod Shah, his son. The Maoists also set ablaze the house of Kishori Mahato, the proprietor of Natural Herbal Private Ltd. in Sabaila VDC-9 causing damage worth Rs. 10,000. The Maoist rebels set ablaze documents of Kanakpatti VDC stored in the house of Parameshwor Yadav, the outgoing VDC Chairman.

Maoist activists set on fire three VDC buildings and three other office buildings in the district. The rebels destroyed the buildings of Namsaling VDC, Sankhejung VDC and Chisapani VDC. They also destroyed the buildings of a post office, Small Farmer Development Plan and a community forest in Namsaling VDC.

In Rukum district they set ablaze the office room of a government school on charges of defying the bandh.

The Maoists asked its 450 students and seven teachers of the Pashupati Secondary School in Ratmata of Khalanga VDC-8 to vacate the school compound and exploded its office. Reports from Gorkha said that Maoists destroyed the office building of the District Agriculture Development Office (DADO)   Four Maoists came to the office, asked its employees to stay away from the building and caused the explosion according to concerned sources.

In Siraha the Maoists set ablaze two rickshaws in Gadha square along the Lahan-Thadi road today afternoon for defying the bandh, according to area police office, Lahan.

The Maoist rebels in Sarlahi destroyed Haripur Area Police Office, the largest of its kind in the district. They also attacked Jaya Prasad Aryal, 55, the outgoing chairman of Simi Chaur VDC with sharp weapons and left him severely wounded.

20            In Kapilvastu the rebels have shot dead two police inspectors who were deputed at the ilaka police station in Chandraura.

In Dang, the rebels have murdered Bisnu Prasad Sharma who was abducted from Gobardiha Village Development Committee (VDC) of the district three days ago.

In Nawalparasi the Maoists have abducted a health worker.

In Sarlahi a group armed Maoists took control of Bayalbas Bazaar in Ishwarpur VDC and vandalised the VDC building, a telephone exchange and a deserted police post even as they burnt the documents of the local branch of the Agricultural Development Bank.

Maoists stormed the buildings of Arjundhara and Khudunabari VDCs in Jhapa. They also destroyed an empty police post in Tanganduwa VDC.

In Janakpur, Maoists rebels set ablaze an area forest office in Pushpapur and a police post in Corakoilpur.

21        The Maoists killed four civilians, including a couple in Dhanusa and central leader of the Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP)-aligned National Democratic Students’ Union in Chitwan today morning.

The rebels also bombed repeater stations of the Nepal Telecommunication Corporation (NTC) and a micro-hydro plant in Rautahat and Achham districts.

In Dhanusa the rebel Maoists hacked a couple, identified as Suwalal Yadav, 50, and his wife Radhiya Devi Yadav, of Sarasa village of Dhanusha Dham Village Development Committee (VDC).

In Chitwan, a group of Maoists shot dead Ramesh Malla, the central committee member of National Democratic Students’ Union affiliated with the Rastriya Prajatantra Party.

In Rautahat, around 80,000 people of the 21 VDCs have been deprived of communication after the rebels destroyed two telephone exchange offices in Chandra Nigahpur catering 500 lines and Garuda catering 150 lines.

In Rudra Kandel, property worth Rs 15 million was destroyed in the bomb blasts carried out by the rebels.

22        In the hill district of Dadeldhura in the far-western region, a group of armed-rebels shot dead two traffic policemen at Syaule. One soldier died in a clash with the armed rebels in Akghat.

25           Maoist rebels have shot dead a policeman and a Nepali Congress (Democratic) cadre in Morang and imposed an indefinite ban on vehicular movement to Liwang, the district headquarters of Rolpa, in the mid-western region.

                In Rupandehi, a group of rebels set ablaze the vehicle of the District Irrigation Office at Thutepipal bazaar on the Siddhartha Highway.

In Syangja the rebels have locked all public and community schools in the western part of the district indefinitely.

In Nuwakot the rebels have locked up the nutrition related project office belonging to the World Food Programme of the UN located in Thaibung VDC.

26           Maoist rebels today killed two traffic policemen in Dadeldhura and two civilians, including a district leader of the Nepali Congress in Bara and Okhaldhunga.

In Bara, the rebels shot dead Kasim Miya Ansari, Bara district Treasurer of the Nepali Congress and former chairman of the Dohari VDC. Likewise, another group of rebels exploded a bomb at the Land Reforms Office. The explosion caused minor damage to the office.

In Janakpur the rebel Maoists bombed a control room of the NepalTelecommunication Corporation.

In Okhaldhunga the rebels killed Guru Prasad Luitel, a teacher of Gyan Prakash Secondary School and district chairman of the Nepal National Teachers’ Organisation.

27            One of the two police personnel was injured in an encounter with Maoists at Jaljale Police Post in Sunsari district. The rebels abducted five local students from Navodaya High School in Gadsera VDC in the district of Doti.

               The rebels killed Shri Bhagawan Prasad ‘Jwala’, former vice-chairman of Telkuwa VDC and Bara district committee member of the Nepali Congress (Democratic). The rebels killed Dhan Bahadur Mabo, a local of Ektin VDC-5, on charges of passing information to the security personnel about Maoist.

28          Two soldiers of the Royal Nepal Army were killed in the firefights between the security forces and the Maoists in Morang, Nuwakot, Bara and Nawalparasi districts.

In Jhapa, the rebels set fire to a truck of the Nepal Electricity Authority at its branch office in Damak.

29           Maoists destroyed the house of Raj Parisad (RP) member Rudra Bahadur KC in Beni, Myagdi, after detonating powerful bombs. The rebels attacked an area police outpost and killed four policemen in Rautahat. The rebels also made off with 13, 3-0-3 rifles, one pistol and one magnum gun from the post.

30             In Kapilvastu, two policemen engaged in security check of a passenger bus were killed and three civilians injured when a group of rebels on motorbikes opened fire at them in Taulihawa, the district headquarters. In Jhapa, a group of rebels shot at two policemen riding on a rickshaw at Damak Chowk.

October 2003

1             Maoists triggered an explosion at the telephone tower of the Nepal Telecommunications Corporation (NTC) at Bhairavasthan of Sunaula bazzar in Dhading district.

The terrorists bombed the empty police post in Sukadev of Jethahariya VDC of Rautahat district, a Royal Nepal Army personnel was injured in a clash with the terrorists in Jahare of Maintada VDC of Surkhet district. The terrorists set fire to the Syamlar, Amuwa, Lumbini Adarsha, Madhuwani, Sipuwa, Khudabagar and Dhamauli VDC office buildings in Rupandehi district, burnt the additional post office of Madhubani VDC in the same district.

The Maoists sent back teacher Sashiram KC who had taken his appointment letter for the Birendra Higher Secondary School in Rukum. They demanded a donation of Rs 10,000 each from local residents of Gangapur VDC of Dang district. They shot at and injured police constable Nanda Bahadur Raut in Mangalsen, in the district headquarters of Achham and looted Rs 71,000 and two computers and carried out an arson at the Pratibhan Savings and Credit Cooperatives in Belhani VDC of Nawalparasi district.

3             Two laborers were killed and two others were injured in an ambush laid by Maoist at Udipur in Lamjung. In another ambush aimed at the army in Dhading twelve civilians in a jeep were injured.

              A postal employee was kidnapped in Pandusen VDC of Bajura district.

4          The rebels blew up a repeater station of the Nepal Telecommunications Corporation in Dadeldhura. Telephone services in Dadeldhura and Baitadi had been disrupted. The rebels looted Rs. 10,000 and one CD player from the house of Krishna Bahadur Thapa and Rs 11,000 from the house of Dhan Bahadur Karki in Singiya VDC of Sunsari district.

6             Maoists blew up a bridge linking Taplejung and Therathum districts in east Nepal. Maoists also blasted the power house of a hydro electricity project at Thotne Khola in remote Okhaldhunga

7             In Dadeldhrua district the Maoists killed Chakra Bahadur Bista, the Headmaster of Bhageshwor Lower Secondary School in Salun. Maoist rebels snapped a suspension bridge across the Rapti River joining Dokhu and Fulbari VDCs.

9             Maoist rebels ambushed the vehicle of a security personnel in the jungle of Chure at Triyuga Municipality-11, leaving four security personnel dead and six others wounded.

10          Three APF personnel were killed while five others were wounded during the nearly ten-hour long fighting between the army and Maoists at Khas Kusum, nearly 200 metres north of Mahendra Highway in Banke district.   It is learnt that about five hundred Maoists rebels attacked the APF base there. A civilian identified as Ghanashyam Panta, a resident of Narayanpur-8 was killed by armed rebels. His body was found at Belouni Danda at Manpur Village.

                Maoist rebels abducted the Nepali Congress (NC) leader and former Minister of State for Home Mahendra Yadav from his residence in Pripadi, Mahottari.

11           In Pokhara a group of armed Maoists ransacked an empty tourist check post at Ghalekharka area of Annapurna Conservation Area Project (ACAP) in Shardi VDC of Kaski district. In Pyuthan the District Committee of the outlawed Maoist Party has declared blockade in Khalanga, the district headquarters, and some other VDCs, including Bagdula and Bijuli.   In Dailekh, Maoists abducted a woman who had killed the five-month pregnant mistress of her husband, in Pankha VDC-1 of Kalikot district.

12           Two powerful explosions destroyed the office buildings of Chunikhel VDC, seven km northeast of Kathmandu and Bajrayogini VDC-1, 18 km northeast of Kathmandu. In another incident, the office building of Lapsiphedi VDC, 19 km northeast of the capital was destroyed. No one was injured in the incidents. One soldier was killed and four injured in the firefights in Lamjung, Bajura and Humla districts while rebels killed three civilians in Jumla, Bara and Doti districts.

                In Taplejung, rebels dismantled a suspension bridge built over Yumba Khola connecting Hangdewa and Khobling VDCs.

13           A building in Capacho serving as the office of four Wards in Madhyapur Thimi was destroyed by a bomb explosion. Inspector Bidhya Bhushan Khadka, 45, working for the department situated in Singha Durbar, was shot at in his home compound in Ekanta Kuna of Lalitpur-13. In Dang the rebels attacked the APF training camp and 13 Armed Police Force (APF) personnel died.

14           At least four students and a dozen Maoists were killed in a clash involving armed Maoist rebels and a Royal Nepal Army (RNA) patrol team at the premises of Sharada Higher Secondary School (SHSS) in Mudhvara VDC-1 of Doti district.

                Maoists shot dead Anil Chaudhari, a government employee at the Carpet and Woollen Development Board under the Ministry of Industry, Commerce and Supplies. Meanwhile, in Sindhupalchowk, two security personnel and two civilians were injured when a group of rebels pelted grenades at a Chautara-bound passenger bus at Harre. A soldier was killed along with a rebel who attacked him at Jhileja in Jhapa.

15           One policeman of the Armed Police Force (APF) was also killed and another injured in the five-hour-long battle with the Maoists in the VDC located about 25-km north of the district headquarters, Mangalsen. The rebels exploded bombs on a building of Narayani Irrigation Project. The rebel Maoists abducted 11 people, including Jagat Bahadur Bista, senior district leader of the Rastriya Prajatantra Party. In Bardiya, a group of rebels set fire to the home of Prtibha Rana, central committee member of the Rastriya Prajatantra Party, at Dhodhari VDC. The property worth Rs 3 million had been damaged in the fire.

16           Rebels robbed Rs 2.7 million in cash from a branch office of the Nepal SBI Bank, a joint venture commercial bank, located at Bhandarik in Lekhnath Municipality of Kaski district. In Palpa, three security personnel were killed and four others injured when a patrol vehicle ran over a landmine on the road at Bhusaldanda of Tansen. Three soldiers of the Royal Nepal Army stationed in Dadeldhura were killed and six others injured when a truck they were traveling in was ambushed by rebels in Ghanteshwor of Doti on the Doti-Dadeldhura Highway.

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