Note no. 207	02. 01. 2004
NEPAL:  Stalemate continues:  Who is benefited? - Update 39.  by Dr. S. Chandrasekharan Stung by the criticism that the agitation of the five political parties against what is called “October 4 regression”, the agitating leaders were able to make a massive show of strength in their rally on 16th December, 2003 at Kathmandu.  Independent observers believe that the crowds were mostly party cadres of all the five parties and the public participation was minimal. A senior party Official of the UML admitted that the agitation has so far been restricted to the party cadres only and that hence forth the public will also be involved.   It is not that the parties did not try to involve the public.  As we said in our earlier Update 38, the agitation has not had any impact on the public or the government. Two views can be expressed on this issue.  1.  Since the people are not interested in the agitation, the programme of agitation against recession will die a natural death.  This apparently is the assessment of the government. They would therefore continue with the strategy of going full steam against Maoists while continue talking to the political parties indefinitely.  The government appears to be willing to wait till differences among the parties go to such an extent that they finally abandon their agitational approach and reach a compromise.   Having sensed the government’s strategy, the political parties  have planned to intensify the agitation, by calling the tenth round of agitation ending December 28 as a grand success and announcing the next round of agitation with protest demonstrations, rallies, sit in parties, picketing, torch rallies, effigy burning and related protestation throughout the country.  The student unions which had kept out of the agitation have also been roped in.  This gives a new dimension to the whole agitation and chances of violence both from the demonstrators and the Police could be expected.  The second part of the strategy of the political parties is to close their ranks.  There is a serious discussion going on to admit the Nepali Congress (democratic) led by Deuba in the five party agitation.  If this succeeds, the chances of the breakaway group of Deuba joining or having an understanding with the parent group of Nepali Congress of G.P.Koirala cannot be ruled out.  Koirala’s statements are getting more and more vitriolic.  He is blowing both hot and cold against the monarchy.  In his latest statement he said that it is time to review constitutional monarchy while in an interview called for preservation of the achievements of people’s movement of 1990.  It is not clear how both can be achieved.  In his interview with the Himalayan times, he has back tracked and has said that he is not against the King himself but against the King’s unconstitutional move that dismissed the elected prime minister on October 4, 2002.  If that was so, would he recommend the reinstatement of Deuba as Prime Miinister once again?  Similarly, there is an attempt to patch up the long standing conflict within the party leadership of the UML with a vertical division between groups supporting Madhav Nepal and those supporting K.P.Oli.  The standing Committee of the UML has nominated nine members, all believed  Oli loyalists to the party central committee.  There were fears that Oli with his group may walk out and take up the ministership in the Thapa government nominated by the King.  This has been averted.  Another veteran of the UML, Radhakrishna Mainali is yet to be pacified.  It was said that Mainali’s name figured in the list of persons to be included in the next cabinet expansion of the Thapa government.  Mainali has denied that he would accept any position.  2.  The second view is that if the agitation continues to lose momentum and public participation is minimal, there is every chance of the agitation getting violent. The entry of the students in the agitation does not augur well.  Violent agitation brings in its wake more police repression and the cycle of violence and repression will escalate. At some point the political parties may lose control of the agitation and the government will also be hard put to meet the increasing law and order problems posed by the Maoists on the one hand and the political parties on the other.  Either way the Maoists will be the beneficiary.  Unless the King and his government and the political parties reach a compromise, there could be no solution to the current Maoist problem or the constitutional crisis created by the King in sacking the lawfully elected government.   The government is certainly not in the right trajectory when they think that the Maoist problem can be tackled and controlled militarily, while ignoring the political parties.  The political parties on the other hand will have to realize that there is no possibility of the King and his government going back to the “Panchayati days”.  Times have changed and the fears that the present King who was no admirer of democracy in those days would revert to absolute monarchy are unfounded.  If this is realized, there could be a compromise with a give and take from both sides and the present Prime Minister Surya Bahadur Thapa has the ability and the connections to bring about a compromise.  This is necessary if the Maoists are to be kept at bay.  Will good sense prevail?  Since the collapse of the ceasefire on August 27, the Royal Nepal Army announced that 1056 Maoists were killed in the operations.  The army lost 82 men leaving another 270 injured.  105 police personnel were killed with 157 others injured.  This is besides the casualties suffered by the APF personnel that included 171 killed and 205 injured.  While not going into the accuracy of the claims relating to the Maoists, the casualties on the government side -358 killed in all, are rather high.  The Maoists have been systematically targeting army and police convoys with land mines and ambushes and have inflicted considerable casualties.  The Maoists have been prevented from attacking major police or army posts with large numbers and this goes to the credit of the army and not because of a change in the tactics of Maoists.  What we see is that the Maoists have not been subdued and the operations may continue for a long time.  The government appears to be under the impression that with the continued intensified  operations against the Maoists, elections can be held in six months’ time.  This in our view is a very optimistic assessment, but not supported by the current ground realities!  A list of incidents relating to the Maoists reported since the last update of October 2003 is given herewith as an Appendix.  Incidents October 2003 18           At least one-security personnel and two civilians were killed in Maoists-related violence in separate incidents. Police head constable Rabindra Rana was shot dead by three Maoist rebels at Ghorahi of Dang district. 19.           At least nine Maoists were killed in  incidents of firefights with security forces in Ilam, Sunsari and Kailali districts. Maoist rebels in the  Lekhani Village Development Committee abducted four persons, including  a Brigadier General of the British Army. 20.          One Royal Nepal Army soldier was killed and eight others sustained injuries, three of them seriously, when one of the Kathmandu-bound military vehicle hit a landmine planted by Maoists on the busy Narayangadh-Mugling Highway at Jugedi. The rebel Maoists had set fire to an Indian bus carrying Indian pilgrims to Kathmandu at the same place. The rebels had forced all the pilgrims to get off the bus and set it on fire. Four Maoist rebels were killed in incidents of encounters in Syangja and Dhading In Bara,  Maoists exploded a powerful bomb on the main entrance of the Kalaiya Municipality’s office building, four hours after the newly appointed Mayor and Deputy-Mayor took oath of office. 21.          Three Maoists, including two women rebels, were killed in   encounters with security forces in Kailali and Khotang districts At least two security personnel were injured when their jeep was caught in a land mine laid by the Maoists near Lalapatta of Triuga Municipality –11 22.           The Maoists blasted the house of Minister for Culture, Tourism and Civil Aviation, Sarbendra Nath Shukla, in Farena Village Development Committee (VDC) ward number 8 in Butwal district. 23.          Maoist rebels have started collecting donations from tourists visiting the northern part. 24.           On Mudbhara incident in Doti district, where security personnel opened fire at a cultural programme held by Maoists, concluded that Maoists coerced the students to participate in their programme. A group of four Maoist rebels shot dead Dil Bahadur Thapa in Chakupat, Lalitpur. Four Maoist rebels were killed and six security personnel, including Armed Police Force Inspector, injured in the firefights with combined security forces in Nawalparasi and Siraha districts A group of armed Maoist rebels abducted a local level CPN-UML activist of Dhading district and beat him to death in a jungle of neighbouring Makwanpur district. 28.          Maoist rebels attacked a police station at Sisuwa of Lekhnath Municipality, leaving seven security personnel, including a Royal Nepal Army soldier, and two civilians dead and two others wounded. A child was also killed in another incident of Maoist-laid bomb blast. At least 10 security personnel, including a Superintendent of Police of the Armed Police Force, were killed and five others injured when Maoist rebels ambushed them in Gorkha and Nawalparasi. Ten Maoists were also killed in encounters. 30.           Three civilians who were wounded in a crossfire between armed-Maoists and security personnel at Birendra Chowk died. . Three Maoist cadres collecting forced donations in villages were killed in police action at Dumraha Village Development Committee-2 . Those killed in the action are two men and a woman, aged approximately between 20 and 25 years, and they have been identified as Rajendra Mehta, Suman Chaudhary and Manju Gurung. November 2003. 7              In Taplejung, Maoists killed a retired Indian-Gorkha serviceman, six days after his abduction from his home.  One RNA soldier was also injured in the Siraha encounter. In Chautara an armed group of Maoist rebels abducted two outgoing VDC Chairmen of Sindhupalchowk district.                 In Khotang, a soldier and a civilian were injured in a Maoist-laid landmine blast near Lamidanda Airport.  In Nawalparasi Maoist rebels shot dead an Assistant Sub-Inspector (ASI) of National Investigation Department (NID) at his home in Gaidakot of Nawalparasi district. 8             The Maoists have been demanding money ranging from Rs.100,000 to Rs. 300,000 from the family members of security personnel in Khotang and neighbouring Bhojpur district. Two soldiers of the Royal Nepal Army were killed in a Maoist-laid landmine blast in Udayapur’s Helungchha area while a policeman was shot dead in Salyan’s Kapurkot area.                 Maoist rebels drove out reporters of The Kathmandu Post and Gorkhapatra Daily from their stronghold in northern Gorkha. The reporters had gone there to cover the Maoist insurgency, social issues and tourism in the Mt. Manaslu region. 9              In Okhaldhunga, one soldier was wounded during an encounter with the rebels in the village of Prapcha Village Development Committee.  the rebels exploded a powerful bomb at a tower of the Nepal Telecommunication Corporation located about one km from the district headquarters. But the explosion caused no more damages to the tower. 10           The rebels destroyed the Ragani-based house of Champak Sunuwar, who was the co-ordinator of one of the mobile teams formed during the Chand-led government.  Maoist rebels forced five families of  security personnel out of their houses, four families in Chanuwa VDC and one in Jitpur VDC. 11            Maoist rebels looted a huge amount of money from three foreign trekkers in the Mt. Kanchanjungha region and dismantled a makeshift tent of a British trekking group. This is the first incident of the Maoists robbing foreigners since the Maoist insurgency began in 1996.  In Kailali, rebel Maoists shot dead head-constable Ranga Lal Khadka, at Bhajani Bazaar. In Syangja, normal life in the district remained paralysed due to the Maoist-called bandh in protest against the killing of  three cadres by security forces in Nibuwakharka VDC. In Dang a group of suspected Maoists shot dead Shri Harsha Subedi, a teacher of Manpur Secondary School at Tribhuvan Municipality-11. The rebels in Dhading claimed the responsibility of killing Raju Bishwokarma of Mulpani VDC-4 and Sun Bahadur Tamang of Darkha VDC. The rebels in Pyuthan district abducted two people. 12            In Dailekh, Maoist rebels killed two civilians in Raniban VDC. In yet another incident in Kailali, rebels killed a villager at Pahalmanpur VDC-6. In Dang a group of rebels ransacked a house of Supreme Court Justice Hari Prasad Sharma at Rajhena of Tarigaon VDC.                 In Gulmi rebel Maoists abducted a businessman, a teacher and a former chairman of the Arkhabang VDC. In Bara, property worth Rs 800,000 was damaged when Maoist rebels exploded a powerful pressure cooker bomb at District Land Revenue Office. 13            A four-year-old child was seriously injured at Dugraha village of Sunsari district when Maoist rebels opened fire on Ganga Ram Mandal’s house. A wooden bridge was destroyed after the rebels exploded a bomb targeted at a police van in Morang’s Dainiya VDC. 14            In Dhankuta suspected Maoists hacked to death 60-year-old Padam Bahadur Rai. In Salyan the rebels locked up the students of Jana Kalyan Higher Secondary School at Tharmare in a room and conducted their programme after the students showed no interest in taking part in what they called an “organisation expansion campaign”.  In Bara, rebel Maoists seized the land and houses of a retired Deputy Inspector General of Police. In Dhading, the rebels set fire to a range post and a veterinary office at Benighat. The office document and furniture were gutted in the fire. 15            Brigadier General Sagar Bahadur Pandey, his wife Pushpa Pandey and two unidentified army personnel were killed and nine other army men injured in an electric mine blast laid by the Maoists.  In Saptari a large group of armed Maoists locked the house of Mrigendra Kumar Singh Yadav, the ex-State Minister for Water Resources and also Central Deputy-Chairman of Nepal Sadbhawana Party. In Butwal twelve security personnel were hurt, four seriously when a vehicle escorting them was blown up by a land mine laid by Maoists in Saljhundi area of Rupandehi district. At least six security personnel were hurt in a clash with Maoist rebels in the Khirachadhi area, west of Chainpur, the headquarters of Bajhang district In Taplejung the Maoist rebels looted Rs. 70,000 from a group of Australian tourists at the Mamakhe base camp. 16            Maoist rebels killed seven security personnel in separate incidents of shootouts and landmine blasts in Dhanusha, Siraha and Gorkha districts. In Bhairahawa a group of rebels looted Rs. 500,000 from the branch office of Janakpur Cigarette Factory in Ridi, Gulmi. Three personnel of the Armed Police Force were injured in Maoist-laid ambush in a jungle of Kharang VDC of Sangkhuwasabha district.                 Maoist-rebels looted foodstuff and edible oil worth Re one million taking two trucks under control near Manahari bazaar. A youth was severely wounded after he was shot at by a gang of Maoists, in Bijulipur village of Satbariya VDC-7 in Dang district. 17            A cop was killed when the rebels attacked a contingent of the security forces guarding a telephone tower at Bhojpur. In Mahottari, the rebels killed Jitendra Jha, 31, the vice-chairman of Shripur Gaon Committee of the Nepal Sadbhavana Party, and Bhushan Mahato, 35, a labourer. In Tikapur, Kailali a group of rebels shot dead bank guard Bhim Bahadur Thapa of Malika Development Bank in broad daylight. 18            In Dhangadhi, Kailali, a group of armed-Maoists looted property worth more than Re one million from the houses of newly appointed Mayor of the Dhangadhi Municipality Dhan Bahadur Bam and his brother Purna Bahadur Bam at the Municipality-7. 19            Maoists shot dead a policeman guarding a school at a village in Parbat. One civilian was also injured in the gun battle between rebels and security forces. Maoists murdered two activists of the Nepali Congress in Ilam. Rebels shot and injured policeman Krishna Chandhari in Bardia. 23            Five security personnel, including a police inspector, were killed and seven others injured in Maoist-laid electric landmine blasts in Syangja and Jhapa districts. Meghnath Paudel, CPN (UML) district committee member, was abducted by the Maoists at Chokati VDC.                 In Nuwakot Maoists looted Rs. 50,000 in cash and a large quantity of fresh harvested paddy from the house of Binda Sitaula of Sundaradevi VDC-2. The buses plying along the Bharatpur-Madi section of the Mahendra Highway were stalled due to Maoist threats. 24            In Siraha, a group of Maoists abducted Laxmi Yadav, the outgoing Secretary of the Bhawanipur Kalabanjar VDC.  Maoists shot dead two policemen at Charikot in Dolakha. Insurgents abducted four persons from a village in Kavre, including two UML activists Devi Bajgain and Lok Narayan Bajgain who were farmers. 25            In Bardiya, a group of rebels exploded a powerful pressure cooker bomb inside the District Agriculture Office in Gulariya. Insurgents abducted four persons from a village in Kavre including two UML activists. 26            Six schools were closed in Dumkibas, Nawalparasi, following wide-spread rumours that the Maoists were going to abduct 400 students from those schools.  Maoists shot dead two policemen at Charikot in Dolakha. 28            Four policemen were injured, three of them seriously, when one of the two vehicles they were travelling on, hit an electric landmine planted by rebels on a road at Madaha Khola of Fulakatta Village, Mahottari.  In Dailekh  an armed group of rebels abducted a female employee of an NGO from her house in Chaurantha VDC-3. 29            An armed group of Maoist rebels shot dead a police constable on duty at the bus park in Hetauda, headquarters of Makwanpur district. In Myagdi, Maoists forcefully evicted the family members of Jaya Ram Baruwal, a Rastrya Prajatantra Party activist, from their house in Shikh VDC-7. 30            The Maoists shot dead Durga Rana, an employee associated with the World Food Programme (WFP) at Dailekh-Kalikot branch. December 2003 2              Maoist rebels killed two civilians in Dang and Siraha and shot dead a policeman in Bajura district.  The two separate groups of Maoists abducted a teacher and an employee with the Sushma Memorial Trust from Mahendranagar VDC of Sunsari district. 5              In Dharan one army man died and another injured during the exchange of fire with the Maoists. In Bhadrapur the rebels shot dead 22-year-old Sunil Thapamagar. 7              A group of armed rebels shot dead a police inspector in Dhanusha district. Maoists looted stored paddy from the house of Sahukanchha in Manakamana VDC-2 in the north Nuwakot and carted away the grain on a truck. 8              The CPN-Maoist has demanded Rs 10 million from Dabur Nepal Limited and Rs 5 million from Surya Nepal Pvt Ltd as ‘special tax’ to fund its ‘new regime’. In Nuwakot, the rebels killed a soldier of the Royal Nepal Army after his abduction. The rebel Maoists set fire to a vehicle of the Nepal Electricity Authority and made off with cash amounting to Rs 31,000 collected from NEA branch office at Baraha Chhetra.                 An unidentified group suspected to be Maoists robbed four Belgium nationals who were on a sightseeing adventure to Rara Lake via Jumla. 9              Maoist rebels set fire to a bus carrying pilgrims from Lumbini to Trishuli on the Pasang Lhamu Highway at Madanpur in Nuwakot. 10            The rebels exploded a powerful bomb at a vacated traffic police post situated at the main chowk of Sunawal bazaar. 11            A Lieutenant of the Royal Nepal Army and a Police Inspector were injured in an army action at Basgadhi. In Dhading  the rebels captured Nepali Congress cadre Hari Tiwari’s house and land in Kudwar Village in Maidi VDC. 12.          The security forces on a regular patrol in the area had shot dead Hari Prasad Bhattarai, 37, of Dambarkhu Shivalaya VDC-7, Dakmani Koirala and Durga Koirala, both of Chisapani VDC-2. Deceased Bhattarai was a permanent teacher at Chisapani Higher Secondary School and the Koiralas’ were his relatives. One local youth died and another was injured when security forces opened indiscriminate fire  in reply to firings from Maoists in different parts of the city. The incident which lasted for about an hour has left the whole city tense and terrorised. Three Maoists were killed and three security personnel injured in the fresh clashes in different parts of the country. In the Pakar area of Solukhumbu district two Maoists, including a woman, were killed in an encounter. Continuing destruction of physical and development infrastructure across the country, the outlawed CPN-Maoists have obstructed water supply to the headquarters, Dailekh Bazaar by cutting off supply lines of the Belaspur Drinking Water Project.                Maoist rebels hacked to death a poor elderly farmer . 13.          Five Maoist rebels including an area commander were killed in security forces’ action at Siddhipur village of Udaypur district. An  Area Secretary of the Maoists, Ramesh Karki and four women militia were killed in the action. A large group of Maoist rebels detonated a powerful bomb at the house of newly sworn in Banke District Development Chairman (DDC), Ram Pati Tiwari, and kidnapped his son. 14.           Security forces killed 35 Maoists at Biyako Lekh in Dailekh Sunday morning, Radio Nepal said quoting local security sources. The insurgents died in retaliatory firing after attacks of regular security patrols.  Security forces Sunday arrested five suspected rebels after a socket bomb attack on security forces at Khairanitar in Nuwakot. In the biggest reverse suffered by security forces in recent weeks, 11 armed policemen were killed and four others were injured at noon when Maoists ambushed their motor vehicle at Aurahi in Mohottari district. 15.           Senior Superintendent of Police (SSP) Chuda Bahadur Shrestha and two other security officials escaped attempts on their lives by Maoist rebels who exploded a powerful landmine bomb targeting their vehicles at Madaha on the East-West Highway in Mahottari.. 16.           A boy of eight sustained serious injuries when the plain-cloth security personnel opened fire targeting at a suspected Maoist in the Madheli VDC-3. Two Maoists were also killed during the shootout and security officials identified them as Chandra Pariyar, 27, of Dudhauli in Sindhuli and Ram Prasad Gautam of Morang. One Maoist rebel was shot dead while two police personnel were injured. . One Maoist rebel fell to action of security forces as three rebels exploded a landmine targeting a patrol team in Athrai area of the district. Identity of the deceased rebel could not be established while the other two rebels managed to flee. 17.           In Dhankhola, Kapilvastu district and Rajapur, Bardiya district at least 11 security personnel, including a Lieutenant of the Royal Nepalese Army (RNA), were killed in two separate incidents of Maoists-laid electric landmine blasts. Seven other security personnel were also injured, three of them seriously, in the incidents. At least 1,056 Maoists were killed while 200 others suspected dead since the collapse of cease-fire on August 27,. 18.          At least three Maoist rebels were killed in security forces’ action at two different places of Taplejung district. Two rebels were killed in Khamlalung while another was killed in Khamlung village of the district. Thirteen Royal Nepalese Army personnel were injured in a landmine blast near Chapini Bridge of the Mahendra Highway in Hariaun Village Development Committee of Sarlahi district. The injured army personnel, three of whom are said to be in critical condition, have been airlifted to Kathmandu. 19.          At least two Maoist rebels were killed in a security action at Arkhed Bazaar of Gorkha district today. The security forces opened fire on the Maoists during a search operation. Pistols and some documents were seized from the killed Maoists whose identity is yet to be known. A  security personnel was injured in a roadside bomb blast at Ghattekhola, 18 km  west of Pokhara. 20.            Security personnel, during search operations,  rescued four minors from Dang district. 21.          Armed men looted cash and valuables worth over Rs. 150,000 from two houses in Laxmipur VDC in Dhanusa last night. One of the houses looted was that of ex-Deputy Chairman of the District Development Committee (DDC).. 22.          Seven Maoist rebels, including a company commander, were killed during an exchange of fire with security forces in the Hyapre jungle of the Tapting Village Development Committee, Solukhumbu. 23.          At least nine Maoist rebels and a policeman were killed in different parts of the country during firefights between security forces and Maoists in the past 12 hours, while a group of Maoists killed a teacher in Dailekh district. Maoist rebels  killed Amrit Regmi, 40, the headmaster of a primary school at Narayan Municipality-6, after abducting him from the school two days ago. 24.          Seven Maoist rebels and one army personnel have been reported killed in separate clashes while 10 rebels surrendered in two places.                At least six Maoist rebels were shot dead in a clash with security personnel in Chhulyamu area of Taksindu VDC in Solukhumbu district. Dendi Sherpa alias ‘Dawa’, the Maoist Secretary of area no. 2, was among those killed 25.           In Gulmi district Maoist rebels severely beat up six workers of People’s Front Nepal party (PFN), including two women.  26.          At least four soldiers of the Royal Nepalese Army were killed and 11 others seriously wounded when the truck in which they were traveling was ambushed by Maoist rebels on the busy East-West Highway at Jyamire in the Manahari Village Development Committee  In Damak, Jhapa, a soldier sustained serious injury today while trying to defuse a bomb planted by the rebels at Kerkha Chowk.  27.          A group of Maoist rebels shot dead a local resident and wounded another in Tipka bazaar of Sugarkhal VDC in Kailali district this afternoon. Janak Bahadur Shahi has been identified as the one killed while his friend, Netra Bahadur Shahi was rushed to Nepalgunj with a bullet injury.  Maoists have looted grain and utensils, and locked the houses of four families in Risku VDC, including that of its ex-Chairman.  28.          A group of Maoist rebels shot dead 24-year-old Netra Bahadur Shahi of Solta Village in the Sugarkhal Village Development Committee in Kailali.  30.          In Kapilvastu district Maoists shot dead three soldiers and wounded one more while attempting to loot a bank's valuables.
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