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Note no. 209
14. 01. 2004
SRI LANKA: Brinkmanship due to frustration: Update57.
by Dr. S. Chandrasekharan
In the last few days, all the concerned parties in the current peace initiative, the government of prime minister Wickremasinghe, the Executive President Chandrika Kumaratunge and the LTTE have all moved from the stage of frustration to desperation and to brinkmanship, in handling the peace talks including the cease fire agreement.
Assessing that the current turmoil started by Chandrika in sacking three ministers holding important portfolios including the Defence would lead to a recrudescence of violence, there has been a stream of visitors from interested countries.
First was the turn of Chris Patten, Commissioner in charge of external relations of European Union on 26 November 2003. He met the government leaders, the President and then Prabakaran at Killinochi to explain the EU stand and their concern on the peace process.
A five-member Swedish Parliamentary delegation visited Sri Lanka in the second week of this month. They also visited the LTTE headquarters at Killinochi and met Tamil Selvan on 12 Jan.
A group of staff members of the US House of Representatives’ International Relations Committee was due to visit in the second week of this month and there is no confirmation of their visit yet. Kristen Muller, Minister of State for foreign affairs in Germany is also due to visit.
The Japanese special envoy to peace process Yasushi Akashi who is perhaps coordinating the donors’ pledge of 4.5 billion dollars for rehabilitation and reconstruction is also set to visit Sri Lanka in the next few days to assess the current political impasse.
Wickremasinghe’s bombshell:
Frustrated over the refusal of the President to get back to status quo ante and the failure of the Samarawickreme-Tittawella committee to come to an agreement over the handling of the defence portfolio, Prime minister Wickremasinghe announced last week that he would like the President to renegotiate the cease fire agreement. He said that he would no longer be able to uphold the cease fire agreement without the relevant ministerial powers.
There was an immediate adverse public and international reaction as the statement more or less gave the impression that the government is withdrawing from the peace process. In a situation where the President has consistently complained that the government had given in too much to the LTTE, it would have been almost impossible for the President to renegotiate a more satisfactory deal with the LTTE. Better sense prevailed and the President rejected the suggestion of the Prime minister.
President’s threat:
Unable to work out a power sharing formula over defence affairs, a frustrated President Chandrika announced to a group of parliamentary leaders of PA that she was planning to hold snap parliamentary elections by forging an alliance with the JVP. Lest there be any doubt on its authenticity, it was broadcast over state controlled SLBC ( Sri Lanka Broadcasting Corporation).
Chandrika has been threatening for quite some time that she would come to a deal with the JVP and one of the major sticking points was about the cease fire and concessions to the Tamils in the peace talks. JVP is against giving any concession to the Tamils and has demanded an end to the cease-fire and the peace talks. By aligning her party with the JVP in the elections if held, she will be giving a wrong message to the Tamils and to the international community. Will she be emulating her late father, who got elected on a narrow Sinhala-Buddhist chauvinist platform in 1956 and started the ethnic divide and the beginning of the ethnic crisis with his "Sinhala only" bill ?
Another view is that let the elections take place and the majority community decide whether they want to live in peace with the Tamils and go with the cease fire agreement and peace process initiated by the UNP or go with the opposite view of no deal with the LTTE. In other words this will be a kind of referendum on the Tamil question itself.
LTTE’ position:
Having waited patiently for the southern political struggle to settle down the LTTE is also seen to be showing signs of restlessness.
Balakumar considered close to Prabakaran, said on 7 January that their expectations of resuming peace talks with the GOSL under a united leadership with a clear authority to command Sri Lanka’s security forces are fast receding
On 12 January, 2004, Tamil Selvan said that the feud between the Sri Lankan President and the Prime minister was testing the patience of LTTE and pointed out that the power struggle has raised worries about whether the cease fire will hold. He made a significant observation that it was for the government to ensure that the "Tamil people are not pushed towards such a situation to take up arms again.".
More ominous are the leaflets issued 11 January by Tamil Awareness movement, a front organisation of LTTE in Jaffna that declared that war would be inevitable if the Sri Lankan leaders reject the LTTE’s proposal on the Interim Self Governing authority (ISGA).
Conclusion:
There is no doubt that Sri Lanka is in a deep political crisis. The cease fire has lasted two years and the international community is involved in reconstruction and rehabilitation work. But funds would be forthcoming only if there is progress in peace talks. This has been made clear many times by the Japanese envoy Akashi. Forward movement in peace talks is only possible if the two political leaders come to an agreement firstly on power sharing and then on the substantive proposals made by LTTE on ISGA. For this, the two leaders Wickremasinghe and Chandrika should stop fighting!
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