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Note no. 214
01. 03. 2004
SRI LANKA: Chandrika takes a gamble in ordering elections: Update 59.
by Dr S. Chandrasekharan.
On February 7, despite international pressure and advice from friendly countries, President Chandrika Kumaratunge dissolved the parliament and paved the way for fresh elections on April 2, 2004. This is the third election in the last three years and the expected cost is estimated to be over nine million dollars.
To quote Prof. Udayangoda ( Daily Mirror of 13 Feb., "the elections are not held as a mandatory constitutional requirement or as an opportunity for the electorate to change their representatives. Instead they are held because the dominant political forces have failed to resolve their conflicts and antagonisms through post election institutional process."
It is clear in this case that President Chandrika has not gone to the electorate for a mandate to continue the peace process but to choose between her group and that of Ranil Wickremasinghe to continue governance of the country. It is also an open admission that cohabitation, the bedrock of the current constitution did not work or put it differently both the leaders did not want it to work!.
In fact the co-chairs of Tokyo Conference on Reconstruction and Development of Sri Lanka, at Washington, openly expressed their disappointment at the breakdown of "cohabitation" efforts while at the same time welcoming the LTTE’s statements of commitment to the cease-fire and to negotiations.
One other stand of the co chairs’ statement that needs to be welcomed is their reiteration that assistance by the donor community is closely linked to substantial and parallel progress in the peace process. The LTTE has pointed out that the delay in the progress of peace talks is entirely due to the mess in southern politics for which the Tamil areas which are in immediate need of assistance have to suffer for no fault of theirs!
Buoyed up with the confidence after her pact with the JVP on 20 January which we considered bad in many respects (Note 211 of SAAG), it was logical for Chandrika to go to the people for a fresh mandate. She must have thought about the consequences, but if she thinks that she can negotiate from a position of strength both on the peace process and the cease-fire agreement itself, she is mistaken.
There is no doubt that Chandrika is also counting on the defence agreement that was to be signed with India . Indian military assistance would include supply of transport helicopters, repair of the vital Palaly airstrip as well as various kinds of military training programmes. Though the defence agreement was a signal to the LTTE to be more amenable to the peace talks, such assistance should be coming only when there is stability in southern politics. To say the least it is bad timing.
The LTTE has already protested that the Indian action would alter the balance of forces between the opposing forces. The LTTE’s supply lines would also come in for grater interdiction and scrutiny henceforth with the implementation of the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI) now in force in response to the growing challenge posed by the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD), their delivery systems and related materials worldwide.
Despite denials to the contrary that the peace process will not be affected, the Memorandum of agreement entered into between the JVP and Chandrika’s SLFP has criticised the peace process as one that will not "usher in a durable peace but threatens the sovereignty, territorial integrity and independence of the country degrading its dignity." In fact the JVP would not have agreed to sign the document but for the clear and agreed position by both sides on the peace process.
Election Scenario:
The question uppermost in the minds of the analysts is whether the coming elections would put an end to instability in southern politics? It looks that the parties neither of the President nor of the Prime minister would get a clear majority to keep the peace process going. More important is that any concessions given on the basis of a federal principle accepted by Wickremasinghe’s government would need a genuine consensus of both the parties, but the coming elections instead of contributing to a mutual confidence would further widen the differences between the two parties resulting in more uncertainty in the talks with the LTTE.
The recently formed alliance of SLFP and the JVP has also attracted other leftist- nationalist fringe parties like Mahajana Eksath Peruman (MEP), National Unity Alliance (NUA), Sri Lanka Mahajana Party (SLMP), Deshiya Jathika Vimukthi Peramuna (DJVP)and their sole objective is not to find a solution to the Tamil problem, but to defeat the ruling United Front government in the coming elections!
The elections are being held in an atmosphere of bitterness and acrimony and results are unlikely to produce any harmony among the political groups and this in turn will surely affect the peace process.
The LTTE on the other hand has played their cards very well and all their statements since the political crisis have been balanced and reasonable. Their short term objective appears to be to consolidate the Tamil votes. They have met the TNA (Tamil National Alliance) to work out an acceptable election manifesto and are going to work openly for the TNA candidates in the elections.. Some problems would arise for the voters who live in the LTTE held areas to go across the line of control and cast their votes in the government held territory and many voters are unlikely to take the trouble to go long distances for voting. The LTTE on the other hand has promised free and fair elections in the area controlled by them. Some of the Tamil groups have approached the SLMM ( Sri Lankan Monitoring Mission) which has so far rightly held that it is not their business to monitor the elections! .
If the LTTE gets involved they will ensure that all eligible voters are made to vote for the TNA.
One outcome would be the consolidation of LTTE’s hold in areas not under their control now. Even a very balanced and experienced person like Sampanthan has declared that "the bright future of Tamils solely depends on the firm unity of the LTTE and the moderate Tamil leadership working jointly for the political liberation of Tamils in the Northeast province"- a certificate that would have been unthinkable a few years ago!
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