Note no. 215	08. 03. 2004
SRI LANKA-Split is a major challenge to the LTTE leader- Commentary- Update 60 by Dr. S. Chandrasekharan. ( May be read with the paper on the "LTTE Split" by Mr. B. Raman and the details are not being repeated here) The split in the LTTE which appears to be deep is the biggest challenge Prabakaran will be facing ever since the Mahattaya incident. Karuna the LTTE commander of Batticola- Amparai district has gone public with his differences with the LTTE leadership and a one page pamphlet issued from his headquarters in Kokkadicholai has listed the grievances it has against "Wanni leadership" and note- not against Prabakaran himself. Mahattaya unlike other leaders remained in Sri Lanka after the 1983 riots and was the most outstanding fighter in the field. His differences with Prabakaran were never known and unfortunately he was liquidated on the frivolous charge that he was an "Indian agent"- a charge foisted on him by the intelligence wing of the LTTE. In the present case, Karuna he has come out openly against the LTTE leadership and the grievances listed are * While thousands of LTTE cadres from the east have participated and laid down their lives, their home district continued to be in a state of neglect. * Of the top level 30 administrators of LTTE area there is none from Batticola-Amparai district and the people in Batticola-Amparai district doubt whether they would get justice in the ISGA setup that has been proposed. * While other cadres are going home and meeting their relatives or going abroad, the fighters from their district are spending their time in bunkers and sentry points. * Wanni leadership wanted 1000 cadres to be sent north to prepare in the event of war and this could not be implemented as an assurance had been given to the parents of the cadres of the district that they will be utilised for development work in Batticola district itself. * The intelligence unit of Pottu Amman has been acting irresponsibly in their district carrying out murders etc. ( without informing or consulting the eastern leadership) The grievances listed are not serious and could have been sorted out if only Karuna had been invited to talk it over. Since Prabakaran does not brook any opposition, it was inevitable that Karuna would be sacked. The reaction of Karuna on sacking was that the question did not arise as he had left the organisation! Implications: This split is symptomatic of historical rivalry and disenchantment of the eastern people with the northerners. The LTTE leadership has all along been Jaffna centric and rarely has an easterner made it to the inner circle. Perhaps Karuna was the only one who reached almost to the top though he is as senior as anyone else in the top LTTE leadership. Also the eastern Tamils have suffered disproportionately more as they had to endure a hostile population besides the depredations of the Security Forces. Karuna unlike others is a leader in his own right. It was he who re structured the LTTE’s presence in the east and made it into a fighting force rivaling the northerners. His contributions and able leadership have led to many victories, the most notable one being that of the capture of the "Elephant pass." His base in Kokkadicholai/Karadiyanaru area in the Batticola jungles has been impregnable since the eighties. He has earned the respect of his people and it is estimated that about a third of the LTTE’s forces would remain with him. However what he would lose are the infra structural and external support that LTTE enjoys. In the event of peace process breaking down his forces would become vulnerable if a combined assault is made by the Sri Lankan forces and the LTTE. In one sense, the balance of power that existed before has now gone adversely against the LTTE. In the Sri Lankan media there was a very perceptive article on the question of "balance of power" on the ongoing ethnic crisis" and the peace talks by Taraki. Taraki makes a very valid point that this aspect has been ignored by many analysts when discussing the peace talks between the Sri Lankan government and the LTTE. Another point made by him which is true is that if the Sri Lankan army’s offensive to retake Elephant pass had not ended disastrously, the government in power would not have gone for the cease fire agreement and the peace talks. If the LTTE is weakened which is likely in the short term, the Sri Lankan government may even go back on the concessions so far agreed to including the principle of federalism. With the JVP joining hands with the SLFP, the Sinhala opinion is likely to get harder in the event of this combine doing well in the elections. On the other hand, with the split in LTTE, the TNA may not be able to capture all the Tamil seats and their bargaining position will get limited. There is no doubt that this is a serious set back to the Tamil Cause. There are well-meaning analysts who are hoping that the people in both north and east would compel the leaders to unite once again for the sake of the cause. But the division is very deep and both the leaders have taken irreconcilable positions. And Prabakaran is not known for flexibility in the matter of discipline. The complaint of Karuna is mainly against the subordinates of Prabakaran who are issuing orders in the name of the leader to seniors like Karuna. Secondly, in view of his own security, Prabakaran has become more and more inaccessible and is forced to listen to the inner coterie round him. People like Pottu Amman the intelligence and the suicide squads have become a law unto themselves. Karuna is right that assassinations take place in his jurisdiction on the orders of probably Pottu Amman and he has to face the music with the monitoring mission! Another major impact will be on the law and order situation in areas controlled by the LTTE in the north and the east. While only a few of the northerners are stationed in the east, many of the fighters from the east are in the north and their position is vulnerable. In all likelihood many of them may be imprisoned if their loyalty is doubtful. There could be blood letting both in the north and the east. The SLMM ( Sri Lankan Monitoring Mission) may have a tough time to keep the cease fire going. The atmosphere in the east is so tense that anything is being believed. The media reports mention that death squads have been sent to eliminate Karuna and his followers. Karuna is now reported to be in his stronghold in Kokkadicholai. The next few weeks will be crucial both for Prabakaran and Karuna. If by any chance the Sri Lankan security forces take the offensive by violating the cease fire agreement, may be both sides may join hands. This they are unlikely to do. Otherwise the split is likely to continue for some time and it will be a test of strength for both the leaders. In the long run, Prabakaran may come victorious but it will at a terrific price in weakening the unity of the Tamils and the Tamil Cause.
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