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Note no. 217
22. 03. 2004
SRI LANKA: Fractured Politics & Fractured Future: Update 61
by Dr. S.Chandrasekharan
Ever since the 1978 presidential form of government with proportional representation was introduced, the minority parties have had a greater leverage in terms of formation of the government. But what was assured in the constitution was that at any point, no party in power would get two thirds majority to amend certain embedded provisions which decisively sealed any hope of the Tamils getting their dues. The unitary form of government effectively disposed off any form of federalism that would have been necessary to meet the Tamil aspirations. What was more, even the devolution within the present constitution was reluctantly given but not implemented. The result has been the steady consolidation of Tamil Nationalism.
It was therefore a surprise that the Wickremasinghe government was bold enough to acknowledge the "federalism concept" in their talks with the LTTE.
April 2nd Elections:
With the elections coming on April 2, a notable feature has been that the campaigns of the two major political parties are on a low key. Public enthusiasm is also minimal, a sign of weariness of the people who had to vote three times in four years.
One exception has been the Buddhist clergy this time. They are seen to be taking an active role and taking sides. The clergy that had been seen as a monolithic entity is today as fractured as any other entity in Sri Lankan politics.
A sizeable section of the Buddhist clergy has entered elections by forming a group going by the name "Jathika Hela Urumaya’- (JHU). They have openly declared that if elected they would prove to be the deciding factor in the formation of the government and "not the Thondamans, Ashraffs or the Hakeems."
This does not bode well either for a peaceful transition for the next government or for finding a durable solution to the Tamil question.
Sinhala Majority Politics:
Since independence Sri Lankan politics has revolved round the two parties of the majority community, one trying to out do the other in espousing and legislating for entrenchment of Sinhala Nationalism in the national polity to the exclusion of other minorities. The Buddhist Sasana, the Sinhala only on language, standardization of education have all contributed to the rise of Tamil nationalism The Thimpu principles of a Tamil home land, Tamil Nation and Tamil’s right to self determination enunciated by all the Tamil groups at Thimpu for the first time have continued to be declared to be the fundamental principles for any acceptable final solution to the Tamil problem.
Tamil Nationalism:
Post 1983 riots saw the emergence of the militant groups in a big way and as one of their leaders put it " our older generation (meaning TULF) has failed to bring justice to the Tamil Cause and now it is for the "younger generation" to take up their cause in their own way and if every reasonable approach fails, Eelam is the only alternative." While India is being blamed for providing the tools for the Tamil militancy ( this occurred only after 1983 and not before as many seem to believe), Tamil nationalism grew on its own with its internal dynamics and now with the exception of EPDP, PLOT and EPRLF all other groups have more or less come round to accept the position that the LTTE is the sole representative of the Tamils. The TNA in its elections manifesto said
Accepting LTTE’s leadership as the national leadership of the Tamil Eeelam, Tamils and the Liberation Tigers as the sole and authentic representatives of the Tamil people, let us devote our full cooperation for the ideals of the Liberation Tigers’ struggle and steadfastness.
Let us endeavour determinedly, collectively as one group, one nation, one country, transcending race, religious differences, under the leadership of the LTTE for a life of liberty, honour and justice for the Tamil people.
What is significant to note is that it did not occur to the veterans of the TNA even with Sampanthan of TULF who hails from Trincomalee that there could be regional differences too, until Karuna raked it up in his differences with the Vanni leadership of the LTTE.
Thus the LTTE, only monolithic outfit that had survived all these years, finally fell a victim to fractured politics with the exit of Karuna the Eastern commander of the BA ( Batticola-Amparai) region. The differences which initially were more personal in nature with Karuna unable to accept the machinations of Pottu Amman the intelligence chief who is close to Prabakaran, were unnecessarily dragged into the larger question of regional differences!
The split in the LTTE appears to be beyond repair with Karuna giving interviews to the BBC and to The Hindu attacking the very premise of Eelam under which the LTTE has fought, to the admission of guilt in Rajiv Gandhi’s assassination. The LTTE on the other hand which has superior media management tools has accused Karuna of defalcation of funds and even suggested moral turpitude on the part of Karuna.
There were expectations that Karuna’s men will walk over to the LTTE leadership once their leader is sacked. This has not happened. The top leadership had indeed crossed over to Vanni but without their men who have so far remained loyal to Karuna.
The standoff between the LTTE and the Karuna’s group is getting tense day by day and sooner it is resolved better it would be. One way would be to give Karuna an honourable exit with Pottu Amman also sidelined. There appears to be no effort on both sides to come to a compromise.
There is apparent jubilation in the Sinhala ranks over the split. There were opinions that the peace process would be smoother with the split in the LTTE and that the TNA which would have solidly backed one or the other groups in the formation of the government would lose its leverage.
In our view the situation gets more complicated if Karuna’s men are able to survive without breaking ranks in the coming months. The problems that would occur are very many and some of them are
* The TNA cannot function as a homogenous unit as those elected from the east will have to listen to the eastern leaders.
* The SLMM has declared that it will not patrol the east until the split in the LTTE is sorted out. Implementation of the cease fire agreement and monitoring of the cease fire process gets more complicated.;
* LTTE has already threatened that it will not accept any position where the Sri Lankan government would talk to someone else other than theirs on the peace process. But the ground realities are that any decision on the future setup of the north east should have the concurrence of the party in position in east. This negotiation with Karuna’s group cannot be avoided.
* Though both sides have promised to maintain peace, clashes between the two groups cannot be avoided, if LTTE leadership decides to force its way into Karuna’s area. There are reports that both sides are watching each other across the Verugal river.
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