Note no. 219	08. 04. 2004
NEPAL: Current developments should be cause for concern; Update 43 by Dr. S. Chandrasekharan The current situation in Nepal could be described in one word- critical. First, the law and order situation - Despite assurances from the government, the law and order situation has gone from bad to worse. The Army had let it be known that after the cease fire was called off, the Maoists are on the defensive and that they are no longer in a position to make large scale attacks with thousands of cadres as it had happened before. In the initial stages in the last half of 2003, it did appear that the Maoists have resorted to small scale actions though their activities extended to all the districts. In our update no. 36 we had pointed out that there could be no military solution for the Maoists problem facing the country. We also said that the Army with its increased strength, specialised training and acquisition of sophisticated weapons is under the impression that the Maoists can be brought under control militarily. We also pointed out that the Maoists are also not what they were in 1996. Their strength has increased exponentially and by then had acquired sufficient arms for a prolonged conflict. Once the Maoist problem is reduced to manageable proportions then elections to the parliament could be considered. This was the prevailing plan of the government also. But the Bhojpur incident of March 3, 2004 (update no. 42) where over a thousand Maoists attacked the security posts, administrative and communication buildings inflicting heavy losses of men and material on the security forces showed that the Maoists had not lost their ability to attack massively even district headquarters as they had done before and that their strength had not diminished. But worse was yet to come. On March 22, Maoists over a thousand in number again attacked Beni the district headquarters of Myagdi District. This attack took a heavy toll of security personnel with over 33 army and 18 policemen killed. Another 36 persons including the CDO ( Chief district Officer) and the Superintendent of Police have been taken prisoners. The Maoists have claimed that they have recovered one two-inch mortar, 3 LMGS, 15 infantry rifles (5.56 mm Inalsa), 8 SMGs, 35 SLRs, 70 .303s, 15 rifles and 47000 rounds. Information received on 7 April reveal that the Maoists have released all the 36 members to the ICRC on 6 April, at Thawang in Rolpa district. Thawang is in the heart of the Maoist territory in mid western Nepal. (See page 66 of the book "A Kingdom under Siege" by Deepak Thapa, 2003) The Maoists struck again, this time at a security post in the village Yadukuha in Dhanusha district on April 5. Nine Police officers were killed and 20 are reported missing. In the Myagdi incident besides AK 47s and M-16s, the Maoists used for the first time 81 mm mortar and security analysts claim that this indicated that the Maoists have also been shopping for arms outside. It is known that the Maoists have some links with the Indian insurgent groups like the ULFA and such arms could have been bought in the South East Asian illegal arms markets. Opinions differ whether the 81-mm mortar used by the Maoists was obtained from outside or from the arms captured by the Maoists in their earlier attacks on the Army. 81 mm mortar is a battalion weapon and it is said that the Army does not want to acknowledge that it had lost "an area weapon" in one of their encounters. For the first time Indian interests and Indians have been attacked. Media reports indicate that on 3 April, many Indian oil tankers (18?) were set ablaze near Dhangadi in far western Nepal. One Indian truck was stopped at Rupandehi and when the occupants protested, they were shot at, injuring three. There are reports that at least 20 Indian businessmen based in Bardia district fled Nepal after they were issued with an ultimatum to leave the country. Another 40 business men have also been asked to leave Nepal in Kusumba Bazar, Bardia. So far the Maoists had refrained from attacking Indian interests. The current incidents are probably due to the arrest of Mohan Vaidya alias Kiran by West Bengal Police, a few days ago and the Maoists feared that he may also be handed over to the Nepalese authorities informally as was done in the case of Matrika Prasad Yadav. Kiran is the third Politburo member of the Maoists to be arrested in India, the other one being C.P.Gajural, arrested in Chennai for carrying false identity documents for flying to Germany, besides Matrika Prasad Yadav. The attacks on Indian interests should be cause for concern. Indian assets and Indians are found all over Nepal particularly in the Terai region and perhaps the Ministry of External affairs thinks that a strong statement from the ministry would do. Perhaps it may not suffice.. What India could do will be * The Security agencies should have a proper and coordinated plan in dealing with the Maoists found in India. It is said that Matrika Prasad Yadav was actually arrested in Delhi along with two others Suresh Magar Ale and Upendra Yadav. The whereabouts of Upendra Yadav are still not known while the other two were handed over informally to Nepalese authorities after declaring that they were found in Lucknow! Matrika is the only person of Indian origin in the top leadership of the Maoists. This has upset the Terains a great deal. * If the attack on the Indian vehicles was to show to India their displeasure over the arrest of Kiran and to prevent Indian authorities handing him over to Nepal, then it is not serious. But it is another matter if the attack is part of a larger plan of Maoists to take on India. It may be recalled that in the initial stages of the conflict, Prachanda had declared that while they were dealing with the Nepalese Police, they may then have to take on the Royal Nepal Army and finally the Indian Army itself. The Nepalese authorities are right now in no position to protect Indian interests. If the exodus from Nepal continues there could be a backlash in India too as more Nepalese of Nepal are living in India than the other way about! * The source of the 81-mm mortar used in the attack on Beni should also be looked into. If it had come from outside sources, it would then acquire another dimension with Maoists not only having links with the outlawed Indian outfits, but also indicate their ability to obtain sophisticated weapons through the now famous weapons/ drug route from southeast Asia to Bangladesh ( with quite a help from Bangladesh authorities) onto Assam, West Bengal and Nepal. The consequence would be a reverse flow of sophisticated arms from Nepal to the Maoists in India who have by now become more active. The call of the Maoists in this region to form a coordination Committee of Maoist parties and organisations in south Asia ( CCOMPOSA) in June 2001 should be kept in mind. The Maoists of Nepal came in for special praise in spreading protracted peoples war should also be noted. * India should also note that its fundamentals of policy on Nepal for Constitutional monarchy and multi party democracy are being undermined by the two main pillars- the King and the political parties. Instead of finding ways to make a common approach towards the bigger problem facing the country, the five agitating parties are continuing with their strategy of trying to force the King the so-called regression moves of October 4. * On the fourth day of renewed demonstration, a 30,000 strong crowd assembled in Kathmandu on April 4 resorted to violence, resulting in the destruction of public vehicles. Many senior leaders like Bamdev Gautam of UML and Arjun Narsingh K.C. of Nepali Congress were injured. If the political parties were fighting for restoration of constitution, their methods used on April 4 could hardly be called constitutional. * The King’s speech at Pokhara on March 28 was for once very conciliatory. There was no criticism of the political parties and he made the announcement of going ahead with the elections and handing over the governance by next November 2005. The way out for the political parties would be to prepare for the general elections instead of asking for restoration of the parliament which at any rate is due to lapse before the end of this month. G.P.Koirala as an elder statesman could be more generous in getting the Deuba group back. His offer to Deuba Group for status quo ante should be grabbed by Deuba and details worked out, rather than quarreling over minor matters seeking coordination instead of a merger. List of the incidents since the last update is given as an Appendix. Appendix: Incidents March 2004 18.           The Maoists detonated powerful bombs in a Nepal Telecommunication Corporation office and the Radio Nepal station at Rampur in Bara district at 12am.Before planting the bomb inside the building, the Maoists took the security guards under control at gunpoint. The blast has destroyed the newly built two-storey building of the NTC .The Maoists made off with Rs.20 thousand cash and a few telephone sets .The loss is estimated at 5 million rupees. 20            Maoists have abducted 28 leaders and cadres of CPN-UML in Surkhet district. The Maoists abducted them from Pokharikanda area. Rishi Sharma and Bal Krishna B.C, former chairman of Surkhet district Development Committee are among abducted. 23.           A police constable was injured in a bomb blast by suspected Maoists in the premises of Kirtipur Municipality. The bomb went off while the security team was attempting to dispose it. Security forces disposed a pressure cooker bomb planted by suspected Maoists in Thapathli chowk. Two explosions occurred at different places in Kathmandu Valley Two children were injured as they played with a stray bomb left by suspected Maoists. The Maoists detonated a bomb at the office of Ward No. 29 of Kathmandu Metropolitan City at Thamel. 24.           Suspected Maoists detonated a bomb at the premises of Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA) at Chabahil in the capital. The bomb was planted inside the office building behind a counter. The bomb exploded immediately after a few suspicious people went out of the office. 25.           Maoist rebels abducted four schoolteachers from Medha Gurung Chauki Lower Secondary School of Manakamana VDC in Syangja district. The teachers were abducted during school hours. Maoists have sent a letter to another teacher asking him to attend their court within four days .The reason behind teachers’ abduction was not known. Two bombs exploded in Thamel. The bombs went off inside the Sanchaya Kosh builiding premises at the back of the building, in the area leading to the under ground parking lot. The bombs were thrown over the wall outside. 27.           Suspected Maoists shot and killed an army office at Sohrakhutte, Kathmandu. Two Maoist suspects shot Lieutenant Dhan Bahadur Thapa in front of his house at Khusibu Town Planning, Sohrahutte. Thapa had just come out of his house when the assailants shot him, police officials at Sohrakhutte Ward. He was taken to the military hospital. He died while undergoing treatment at the hospital. Maoist rebels abducted 40 students from different VDCs of Baglung district. The rebels abducted to recruit them in their military. Maoists have killed two of the six civilians kidnapped in Talihum VDC of Jumla district 28.           At least one passenger was killed and 13 others injured in a landmine explosion planted by suspected Maoists at Jugedi area on the Narayanghat-Munglin highway in Chitwan. 30.           A child was killed while another severely injured in Prithvi Narayan Municipality of Gorkha district when a bomb left by the Maoists went off. The children was playing with the bomb, mistaking it for a toy.                  Maoists abducted over 1000 people from seven different VDCs in Bajura district. The abductee were residents of Chatara, Toli, Kailashmandu, Barhabis, Kuldevmandu, Bramtola and Budhiganga VDCs, all located in the southern part of the district,. The rebels had earlier informed the villagers that an individual from each house must join the Maoists.  The rebels also abducted over 150 residents from a ward of Kuldevmandu VDC alone. The abducted are aged between 18 to 45. 31.           Suspected Maoists carried out a series of blasts in three Ward offices of Bhaktapur Municipality. A bomb went off at the office building of Ward No. 12 and Ward No. 15at Itachhi Tol.                 Maoists exploded yet another bomb at the office of Ward No. 16 at Balakhe Tol.                  Three Maoists have been killed in separate incidents in Jumla and Sunsari districts. Two Maoists were killed as a socket bomb carried by them went off at Tatopani area in Jumla. The blast killed Tirtha Budha, a platoon commander and an unidentified Maoist cadre and injured three villagers. April 2004 1.             Maoist militant was shot dead by security forces in Sunsari. 2.             Maoists carried out a powerful explosion in the District Education Office in Dhading. killing an employee and injuring two others.                 Maoists exploded a bomb at the Area Forest Office in Katari Bazar of Udaypur. Maoists have abducted at least 60 teachers from different parts of Dadeldhura district. The abducted teachers are mostly from schools in Sirsha, Katar and Bagarkot VDCs.The rebels have kidnapped the teachers to involve them in their programs at an unidentified area in the district. Maoists have promised to release them safely as soon as the programs end. 3.             Suspected Maoists exploded two bombs at the premises of the Election Commission at Kantipath.  4.             At least 9 policemen were killed in a gun battle with Maoists in Yadukuha Area Police Post of Dhanusha district. Another 14 policemen are still missing.                 Hundreds of armed Maoists launched  an attack on a police  post. Few Maoists were also killed in the clash but the actual number of casualties on their side is still awaited. 5.             Maoists ambushed a truck carrying Royal Nepalese Army personnel in Kavre killing at least three soldiers. Seven others have been seriously injured. The incident took place on the BP Highway at the Bhakunde Besi area.One security personnel was injured in a blast carried out by the Maoists at Langtang area in Nuwakot. 7.            Two policemen including a police inspector were killed in a gun battle with Maoists  in Pashupatinagar Area Police Post of Ilam district. 8.             The Maoists resorted to bombs  for destroying the Area Customs Office, Area Administration Office and the Police Post in Pashupatinagar
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