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13.06.2004
NEPAL: Tough Tasks ahead for Deuba: Update 49
By S.Chandrasekharan.
It has been ten days since Deuba took over as Prime minister and so far he has not been able to persuade other political parties to join the cabinet. The UML which had promised, appears to be placing tough conditions for joining. A common minimum programme (CMP) is being drafted behind the scenes for the last few days. Other parties like the RPP (Rashtriya Praja Tantra party) and NSP (Nepal Sadhbhavana Party) of Anandi faction have promised to join too once the UML gets in.
After five days of intense discussions within the party the UML, formally announced on 8th June three conditions for joining the government. These were 1. Correct regression that had continued since October 4, 2002. 2. Prioritise the resolution of Maoist problem 3. Move the country forward in a progressive direction.
It is not clear what the Marxists mean by asking Deuba to move in a progressive direction. Two major sticking points would be of the sovereignty over the army, and the elections to a constituent assembly. Prior to his appointment, Deuba had also made noises over a constituent assembly but after taking over he has understood the implications and said that elections would be for parliament and not for a new constitution. Two reasons could be given for the change of stand of Deuba. One is that having taken over, his task will not be made easier by taking on the King also, when he has other bigger problems facing him. Two, his stance earlier was mainly to put pressure on the King as other democratic groups are still doing.
Reaction of the Maoists:
As expected the Maoists have reacted sharply to the appointment of Deuba, Within a day of Deuba’s appointment, Prachanda called it a continuation of repression and a conspiracy against the country. The dramatic move (Deuba’s appointment) has "complicated the national crisis and directed by foreign imperialists", he said.
Prachanda must have been infuriated by the incident on June 3 when the Indian Police arrested eleven Maoists including Chitra Bahadur Shrestha and four other central committee members. The presence of the foreign Minister of India in Kathmandu on that day and his assurance that India would "extend to the friendly people of Nepal, its full support in their endeavour to overcome the challenge confronting their country" must have angered them more.
UML’s withdrawal from the agitation and its intention to join the government was another sore point with them. In Babu Ram Bhattarai’s assessment, the need of the hour "is to forge a sort of working relationship between the agitating parliamentarians and the people oriented political parties in "order to expose the illusory appointment of Deuba."
Certainly, Deuba’s appointment has not gone down well with the Maoists. Their plans to exploit the vacuum created by the resignation of Surya Bahadur Thapa and the delay in appointing a new incumbent was taken full advantage by them. They cannot do it any longer, once all the parties join the government.
Baburam Bharttarai, in his capacity as Co-ordinator of United Revolutionary People’s Council, Nepal, condemned India over the arrest of his comrades in Bihar.
Apparently in retaliation, the Maoists have banned Indian films and movement of Indian vehicles in the four districts of Makwanpur, Dhading, Nuwakot and Rasuwa districts. In a situation where the political parties are in disarray and the King’s actions coming in for severe criticism from people in all walks of life, the Maoists perceive that Indian support would tilt the scales against them. Therefore more attacks on India can be expected as a sort of warning to India to go slow!
But Maoists should understand, that their actions and links with Indian Maoists groups have resulted in disturbances in the border districts of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. With India being abused day in and day out, the Maoists cannot be expected to be received with bouquets in India!
Three tasks for Deuba:
As we had said before, the three major tasks that Deuba has before him will be
1. Have an all Party government. The cabinet need not be only from the parties represented, but he could reach out and get eminent persons for the interim period. In the absence of a parliament, there has to be checks and balances and monitoring committees at all levels and more importantly the government should be seen to be taking independent decisions.
2. Manage the law and order and try to bring the Maoists into a dialogue after agreeing on a cease fire. This is not easy but with the Marxists controlling most of the country side he has no choice. There has to be a long term policy to pacify the country side whether or not the Maoists agree to a cease fire.
3. Conduct the elections within one year. Between maintaining relative peace and order and elections, priority should be given to the former. Unless the law and order situation improves to a fair agree, elections even if it is to be done in a staggered manner will not be possible. The time limit of one year is unrealistic.
The immediate task is to persuade all the parties to join the government. Otherwise Deuba’s government will lose its credibility and he will go down the way the other two Prime ministers left.
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