Note no. 234	05. 08. 2004
NEPAL: Deuba is yet to settle down-Is he the problem? Update 52. by Dr. S. Chandrasekharan It is almost two months since Deuba took over as Prime minister. Just a month ago he expanded his ministry with thirty-one ministers. The ministry he announced was the closest he could have had as a representative government not withstanding the fact that GP Koirala’s Congress had refused to join. Except for strong and sometimes wild statements from the constituent parties, nothing has moved. One of the commentators in the media called Deuba government a "circus." One may say that the statement is uncharitable, but the ways the ministers in Deuba’s cabinet as well as the political leaders who form part of the coalition speak on serious issues like negotiations with Maoists and the coming elections, it looks that perhaps the commentator is right. The problem appears to be Deuba himself. If he considers that his reinstatement is a favour done to him, then he will be in no position to command respect and get the ministers in line for his policies. If on the other hand, he thinks that he had a right to be reinstated as Prime minister and that he had to show that the King’s action in October 2002 was wrong in sacking him for "incompetence," then he has to assert himself. Deuba had said that peace, elections and good governance will be his objectives. His own minister Mohammad Mohsin says that elections will not be possible within one year as promised. Peace talks do not appear to be round the corner either and good governance is still a far cry! He has to control his information minister first. Dr. Mohsin, the cabinet minister and King’s nominee holds the powerful post of Minister for Information and Communications. He is appointed the spokesperson for the government also, a member of the High level committee to take charge of the talks and a surprise, as a member of the committee to oversee the decisions made by the cabinet on the basis of the Common Minimum Programme agreed to between UML and NC (D). Dr. Mohsin was the notorious hardliner in the "Back to Village Campaign" in 1976. Everyone knows his background and that whatever he says would reflect the King’s views. On 12th July Deuba made a statement that his government is ready for talks with the Maoists "on any political agenda with maximum flexibility, except on constitutional monarchy and multi party democracy." His own minister (Mohsin) has challenged the statement openly in a face to face meeting organised by the Reporter’s club, Mohsin declared that he is not clear about the meaning of "flexibility" in the talks and that he would ask the Prime minister in the cabinet meeting. He followed it up by saying that the term is too abstract and would create more problems in the course of negotiations with the Maoists. The question would be -Is he seeking the clarifications on behalf of the King? The King could have himself sought clarifications in his regular meetings with the Prime minister! What is clear is Deuba has a "loose cannon" in his cabinet who occupies a powerful post and is perceived to be the nominee of the King. He needs to be muzzled. Second is the case of the UML, the major constituent of the government. Surprisingly the leaders of the party both within and outside the government are making varied statements and it is not clear whether they are talking in their individual capacities or on behalf of the party or on behalf of the government. Madhav Nepal knows very clearly that his party’s support is essential for Deuba government to survive. Being a coalition partner in the government, one would have expected him to be more responsible. His statements are not in conformity with the policy of the government and worse some of the leaders of his party are making different tunes. It is not clear whether the UML wants Deuba government to continue or whether he should be pulled down throwing open the post of prime minister once again. See the following statements and news items- 20th July: a UML spokesperson said that the Maoists are not terrorists as some would claim. However, some of their activities did amount to terrorism. This is different from the stand of the government. 21st July: Madhav Nepal is said to have spoken to Prachanda and told him that his party will spare no efforts this time to bring the insurgents to the table. Is Madhav Nepal willing to agree to the conditions for cease fire and talks namely- a constituent assembly and UN mediation? In what capacity was he talking to Prachanda when his party has joined the government? 27th July: Bom Dev Gautam, a senior leader said "for our party, the term maximum flexibility means agreement on the issue of constitution. "To talk about elections before negotiations with the insurgents is utter hogwash." 27th July: Deputy Prime Minister said that the government may accept constituent assembly. 2nd August: Madhav Nepal in one of his statement threatened to pull out of the ruling party coalition if the government fails to hold peace talks with the Maoists soon. He has not said specifically as to how one could go about it when the Maoists as well as PM Deuba have set pre conditions for the talks to take place. 3rd August: Dy. Prime Minister said that some international organizations are working actively towards initiating peace talks and the national scenario is also becoming conducive for the talks. By various statements, the UML in spite of being a constituent of the ruling coalition has indicated that they have no objection for a constituent assembly and outside mediation. Is it the official position? It is no coincidence that a UN team is set to arrive this month soon. A special envoy of Kofi Annan, Samuel Tamrat is expected anytime to assess the situation and Kul Chandra Gautam, the UN Assistant Secretary General is visiting Kathmandu on August 16. The Maoists are continuing with their depredations. Various statements emanating from them indicate that in their assessment, the revolution has reached the "strategic offensive" stage. One Politburo member has been quoted as saying that the two phases of defence and balance are over and only the "phase of counter attack" is left. The western region appears to be under their control and attacks in the valleys and towns have increased. A list of incidents since update 50 is given as an Appendix:  Appendix: Incidents  July 2004  5.            At least 24 people, comprising 12 security personnel and 12 Maoists were killed in a gun battle at Kalche area in Salyan district.  7.            Maoists shot and killed a Home Ministry official in Kathmandu.  8.             Maoists killed two persons at Habaldarpur in Banke district.  9.            Maoists detonated a powerful bomb at the Lalitpur District Administration Office. The Maoists abducted at least 15 factory workers in Lahachowk of Kaski  A group of armed Maoists took the laborers away, including four women, charging them of assisting the security forces. 10.          Maoist captured three trucks transporting rice belonging to the World Food Program. The trucks were en route to Accham from Nepalganj when they seized them. The rice was meant for the recently launched 'Food for Work' programme. 11.          Maoists abducted two government employees in the Pyuthan district                 Maoists detonated a bomb at the premises of Nepal Telecom branch office at Gantaghar, Bhaktapur. Royal Nepalese Army personnel repulsed a Maoist attack on an army base in Baitadi district headquarters. The Maoists killed a Royal Nepalese Army soldier at Bijauri in Dang district. 12.          The Maoists shot and killed Dhan Bahadur Bom, mayor of Dhangadi Municipality in Kailali.                 One civilian was killed and three others were injured when a bomb left carelessly by the Maoists went off in  Udarapur area in Banke district.  13.          The Maoists detonated a bomb in a municipal building housing the offices of Ward No. 7,8,9 and 10 of the Madhyapur Thimi Municipality in Thimi, Bhaktapur. Two suspected Maoists threw a bomb from outside the office and ran away.   One Royal Nepalese Army soldier and two Maoists were killed in different incidents in Pyuthan and Bardia districts Two Maoists were shot dead in a clash with security forces at Baisai area in Bardia district. 14.          Suspected Maoists shot dead a schoolteacher in the capital. 15.          The chairman of the Maoist-affiliated All Nepal Peasants Association (Revolutionary) Bharat Dhungana and alternative central committee member of the All Nepal National Independent Students Union (Revolutionary) Baikuntha Pokharel were killed during a security action in Dhading 16.          Maoists leader Sujit Mandal, the chief of the 'people's government' at Kapileswor of Dhanusha was killed in security action. 17.         The Maoists killed four civilians in different parts of the country. 18.           Maoists detonated a bomb in front of the Koteshwor police post. The bomb was on a bicycle parked in the vegetable market near the police post.                  One Royal Nepalese Army soldier and one Maoist were killed in different incidents in Chitwan and Banke. Maoists abducted 40 students and 14 teachers from two schools, Krishna Secondary School and Panchakanya Primary School, on the outskirts of Kathmandu Valley. The two schools were just 4km away from an army barrack. A 20-year-old student was killed in a bomb blast. Suspected Maoists in Lekhanath Municipality planted the bomb.                 Maoist shot and killed a civilian in Hardwar of Tribhuwan Municipality, Dang. The Maoists accused him of being an army collaborator.                  One person was killed when a bomb planted by the Maoist rebels exploded inside a movie hall in Kaski district.  19.          Security officials defused a bomb planted by the Maoists outside the premises of Rastriya Banijya Bank near Singh Durbar.                           Maoists detonated a powerful bomb at the Rastriya Banijya Bank’s branch office in Butwal.  20.          Maoist killed a resident of Dang. The militants abducted him from his house and killed him soon afterwards.  21.          Maoists shot dead police inspector of Regional Police Office in Nepalgunj.            Maoists detonated a powerful bomb at Kotbara Airport in Kalikot district injuring at least six security personnel. 22.          Maoist detonated a bomb on a helicopter belonging to Sri Air in Kodwada airport of Kalikot. The Maoists killed an assistant sub-inspector (ASI) of police after abduction in Kailali district. 23.          Three Maoists were killed in a security action in Nuwakot district                 The Maoists shot dead sub-inspector of police in Kailali 24.          Security forces killed two suspected Maoists in Baikadabar,                  Maoist killed a civilian in Rautahat district. 27.          Armed Maoists killed Laxman Yadav in Ghora village of Bara district. He was abducted from his residence on the grounds that he was an army spy. 28.           Maoists killed three civilians in Banke and Bara districts.  The militants charged them of extorting money in Maoist guise. 29.          The Maoists detonated a pressure cooker bomb at the Ward No. 1 office of Bharatpur Municipality, Chitwan. Three Maoists were killed in Dhanusha district. Maoists abducted 1,800 students, teachers and civilians in Karnali region and Bajura district. Maoists abducted over 1500 people from over a dozen villages of two different districts in the Karnali district for the Suuj campaign. Armed Maoists killed three civilians in Saptari district, accusing them of spying on Maoists activities in the area. Maoists abducted over 100 teachers in Panchthar district. 30.           In Udaypur, the Maoists torched a VDC office and an unoccupied police post near Katari.                 Maoists killed Subedar Major of Royal Nepalese Army Battalion-3, Narendra Bahadur Basnet after abduction in Kaski district.                 Maoists shot dead Nepal Sadhvawana Party cadre at Belaspur of Kusma VDC-4 in Nawalparasi district.                 The Maoists killed a junior army officer and a Nepali Congress cadre in Kaski and Gorkha districts. 31.          The Maoists shot NSP district member Ram Piyaree Kahar at his residence. Maoists have charged Kahar of spying over their activities. August 2004 1.             The Maoists ambushed and exploded a bomb targeting a Royal Nepalese Army soldier at Bhalebas 2.            The Maoists brutally killed Rajendra Shribastav, former mayor of Guleriya Municipality in Bardiya district.                Maoists killed a farmer near Amppipal in Gorkha district.  3.             Maoist torched a government-owned passenger bus (Sajha) along the Mahendra Highway in Kotihawa of Rupandehi district
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