Note no. 237	29. 08. 2004
SRI LANKA:  Rumblings within UPFA-Update 68 by Dr. S. Chandrasekharan. In the last three weeks, differences within the ruling coalition partners –SLFP and the JVP have come out in the open and mutual criticism and accusations have reached a higher decibel stage.  This is happening at a time when the law and order situation in the East is deteriorating, with the LTTE going on a killing spree against non LTTE cadres and sympathisers of Karuna faction in Colombo itself.  The SLMM (Sri Lankan Monitoring Mission) appears to be helpless both in getting the Sri Lankan government and the LTTE to resume peace talks and in preventing the LTTE from killing.  The seriousness of the situation can be gauged by the fact that the SLMM is unable even to bring the security forces and the LTTE to resume talks at the ground level in the East.  Is Interim Self Governing Authority (ISGA) the problem?  Going through the media and the statements of both the JVP and the SLFP, one would get the impression that the differences between the two parties are only on the ISGA, but it could be more than that.  The JVP is disappointed over the governance and the government’s failure to take effective steps to arrest the increasing cost of living.  But it is more upset over the way the new government has handled the peace process and cease fire violations by the LTTE which have become a regular occurrence.  President Chandrika Kumaratunge had planned a meeting with the JVP leadership on August 10, to discuss about the ISGA (Interim Self Governing Authority –proposed by the LTTE) and other not so pressing issues like the transfer of certain subjects from the Ministry of Agriculture to the Ministry of Rural development.  But the meeting was cancelled at a very short notice by Chandrika on the grounds that she was “busy with her work.”  On the next day (August 11) the JVP started a formal statewide campaign against the ISGA.   The leaders also condemned the recent action of the government to grant four “duty free” luxury vehicles to the LTTE Peace Secretariat.  Wimal Weerawamsa, the JVP Parliamentary group leader and the propaganda secretary declared that the proposal of the LTTE if agreed to would make the LTTE more powerful than that of the Executive President.   The JVP had gone strictly according to the agreement in the MoU signed by the two parties.  It said that “LTTE’s proposals for an ISGA go far beyond the resolution of the problems of the Tamil people and other minority communities and create a basis for a separate Eelam.  In another context the MoU had said that “Peace Process will not usher in a durable peace but threatens the sovereignty, territorial integrity and independence of the country, degrading its dignity.”  The JVP unfortunately does not have the luxury of the CPI (M) in India which enjoys power and influence without responsibility and accountability. It is therefore not surprising that the party is getting divided into two groups with one insisting on taking a confrontationist position and quit the government and the other taking a moderate view to stick with the government in the long term interest of the party.   The SLFP has also begun criticizing the JVP openly. A SLFP Parliamentarian in an interview said that the JVP was trying to create the impression that despite the alliance it was still different from the two main parties and that the JVP’s line of thinking on ISGA was wrong.  It looks that the differences between the SLFP and the JVP would continue to grow but the alliance may not break for the time being, not because of any principle or ideology but because of lack of alternative for the SLFP to continue in power.  SLFP’s Problem:  Having taken a position of opposing the ISGA in the MoU with the JVP and in the run up to the elections, the SLFP finds itself in a bind.  On the one hand they had continued their rhetoric against the ISGA and the LTTE and on the other they expect the LTTE to come round and agree to resume the talks with some of the core issues also being taken up along with the ISGA.  President Chandrika had said that she had gone 75 percent of the way and for the rest the LTTE should come forward and be flexible in its position on ISGA.  But the LTTE is not likely to relent.  For them it is ISGA or nothing.  This position is not that of  Tamilselvam or Balasingham or others, but that of Prabakaran himself.  There is reason for Prabakaran to be adamant on the ISGA proposals.  All the Tamil Groups including the LTTE have seen in the past how the Sri Lankan government had either reneged from or failed to implement agreements entered into sincerely.  Two typical cases for both aspects would be the “Bandaranayke- Chelvanayagam agreement and the 13th amendment to the constitution respectively.  The LTTE therefore wants a fool proof arrangement and it is no surprise that in the proposals put forward, under the ISGA there is no role for the Sri Lankan government.  The second problem faced by the SLFP is in handling cease fire violations and its helplessness.  The SLFP is very critical of the role of the Norwegians who form the SLMM.  Last week the Acting Defence Minister in his address to the naval cadets complained about the SLMM and what he said is true.  He said-  The SLMM just sits in a room and issues statements without enquiring or taking action to prevent the recurrence of such violations in the future. The SLMM does not come forward to tell whether it is a violation or not. The LTTE continues its killing spree:  The LTTE has given up all pretences of implementing the ceasefire and has continued with its killings in the non LTTE areas.  No one knows what is happening in the LTTE controlled areas.   Besides the killing of Chinna Bala of EPDP, the two latest incidents that should be cause for concern were the shooting of Jeyakumar, an associate of Karuna in the open court at Akkaraipattu and that of Suppaiah Kuganathanan ex LTTE cadre at Wellawatte in Colombo. It is said that many pistol groups of LTTE are roaming around in Colombo to target non LTTE cadres.  Frustrated over the incidents in the east, President Chandrika in an interview with UPI has threatened that she would order troops into the LTTE held areas in the east, if the internecine war within the LTTE endangers the stability of the country.  She should be aware of the consequences and repercussions that would follow if she makes good her threats and this is exactly what LTTE is waiting for.  Malawatte Mahanayake’s initiative:  It looks that no one understands better than the Mahanayake on the current ethnic crisis in Sri Lanka.   The newly installed Mahanayake had already met the President, the Prime Minister and the opposition leader and is trying to work out a “southern consensus”.  Failure of the majority community to arrive at a consensus has been the main hurdle in seeking a just and lasting solution to the ethnic crisis.  The venerable Thera told a delegation of Up Country People’s front that he would himself negotiate with the JVP to get them talk to the LTTE.  He even volunteered to meet an LTTE delegation to discuss the issues. It is unlikely that the political parties would ever come to a consensus in dealing with the ethnic crisis or in negotiating with the LTTE.  Unless this is done, there is no immediate hope of  any solution to the current crisis
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