Note no. 250	29. 12. 2004
NEPAL: The Maoists go on the offensive: Update 59. by Dr. S. Chandrasekharan Since the middle of this month, the Maoists have been stepping up their attacks. First was the clash in Argakanchi district followed by another one in the Chisa pani area of Bardia district. Argakanchi witnessed one more clash on 23rd December.  On 16th there was another clash at Dailekh. A bomb was thrown into Prabakar Rana’s house near Soaltee hotel on the 18th.  Prabakar Rana is known both in Nepal and India as someone very close to the present King.  On 19th the Sankhu Police post, not far from the capital was attacked. There were many more clashes all over the country. The attacks were followed by blockade and bandhs in several parts of the State. Syangja attack was followed by bandhs in Chitwan, Rupandehi, Nawal Parasi, Syangja and Parbat. Life came to a standstill for two days in the districts of Morang, Ilam, Sindhu Phulchok, Salyan, Dhading and Bara districts. An indefinite blockade was imposed in the entire Narayani zone from 23rd December. Portions of all the three major highways, the Tribhuvan, Mahendra and Prithvi have been blockaded, thus cutting off supplies to Kathmandu. On 22nd December, eighteen trucks carrying supplies to Kathmandu were set on fire near Kharanga in Makwanpur district. The Argakanchi clash was a major one. On December 15, there was a major clash between the Maoists and the Security Forces near Sisne Khola in Siddhwara VDC of Argakanchi district. Initial reports indicated that 18 Army men and 3 Police men were killed with many more injured. The RNA sources while playing down the casualties of their own forces to two claimed that over 40 to 80 Maoists were killed and that many bodies were taken away.  Independent accounts give the impression that the army was taken unawares in this clash. Eye witnesses said that over 25 bodies of security men were removed from the scene besides 8 bodies of Maoists. Reinforcements were sent from Argakanchi and Kapilabastu. In a Press statement of the Maoists by the so called Mangal Sen First Brigade, in the name of Bibek the Brigade commander and Sunil, Central committee member and Brigade Commissar, claimed that a large quantity of weapons including one 81-mm mortar, two Insas LMGs, 16 SLRs and other equipment including communication sets were captured.  This could be true. It looks that the Maoists are stepping up their offensive in the hope of forcing the government to talk peace on their terms. It looks that the military wing led by Badal has prevailed over others to keep attacking the security forces before thinking of any talks. The Press statement of Mangalsen Brigade of the Maoists specifically mentioned that the attack on security forces at Argakakanchi was under the "first plan of Strategic offensive and in the process of decentralized guerilla action." Another disturbing statement made in the same press release was that the action was in pursuance of seizing political power. Another statement of Prachanda on the eve of 112th birth anniversary of Mao Zedong reiterated their commitment to the dictatorship of proletariat and supported Mao’s thesis that political power flows from the barrel of a gun. All these show the real face of the Maoists and their intention. Their talk of round table meetings with other parties, election to a constitutional assembly, intervention of United Nations etc. appear to be the means they would adopt to achieve their end and that is, the capture of political power by any means. It is hoped that the four political parties who are fighting against "regression" are aware of the seriousness of the situation and how the Maoists are exploiting the fractured polity in the country. At some point both the King and the political parties will have to realise the greater danger facing the country and come to a compromise. The present political impasse will have to be overcome even if it means restoring the dissolved parliament! The initiative rests with the King. With the indefinite blockade continuing disrupting the life in the capital, the cabinet had an emergency meeting on 24th December and at the end of the meeting, Mohammad Mohsin, the information minister and the government spokesman made two startling statements- One. that the government might be compelled to declare a state of emergency if the current situation- Maoists imposed blockade continues unabated. And two, that the capital has enough stock of edibles and fuel for about ten days.! This position was confirmed by none other than the Secretary in the Ministry of Industries, Commerce and Supplies who said that Nepal Oil Corporation has a stock for only about 10-12 days! This is not the first time that Kathmandu has been blocked. A few months ago the Maoists tried to choke the capital and it failed. But the government should have learnt a lesson. Late in the day the government, realising the possible adverse impact on the morale of the people, has now formed co-ordinating committees at regional and district levels to ensure smooth supply of essential goods. It is learnt that the security forces were able to break the blockade and bring in over 60 trucks of essential commodities and 98 LPG carriers between 26th and 27th December. The four opposition political parties also appealed to the Maoists to lift the blockade and avoid causing hardship to the people. They specifically asked them to refrain from kidnapping, extortion etc. By now they should have realised that such appeals do not work! The Maoists are not winning yet. They also suffered immense casualties in the clashes that took place since the middle of this month. What is required is decisive governance The Minister for Information needs to be more discreet.   He is seen by the general public as the King’s man in the cabinet and a loose cannon.  His statements like the imposition of emergency give the wrong impression that he is doing it at the behest of the King.   And Deuba in spite of rhetoric against the Maoists is still perceived to be a weak Prime minister. The problem as we have said before in earlier updates is Deuba himself. A list of Maoist incidents since the last update is given as an appendix. Appendix: Incidents December 2004  10.          Suspected Maoists exploded a powerful bomb at Mid-Western Regional Agriculture Directorate building in Lalitpur district. On the eve of the 56th International Human Rights Day, Maoist militants captured and forcibly drove away at least six passenger buses in the far western district of Kailali. Security forces shot dead two female Maoist militants in Jutpani area. They also recovered a detonator and Maoist literature from the incident site. In Rupandehi, two district- level Maoist leaders were killed in security action at Madhualiya VDC-5. A militant was killed and two others were injured in separate clashes in the mid-western district of Dang. At Mathuradanda area of the western district of Arghakhanchi, a Lieutenant with the Royal Nepalese Army was killed and six RNA personnel were injured during hours long gun battle with the militants. 11.          At least six Maoist militants including two district-level leaders were killed in two separate clashes with the security forces in Mugu district..           Two Maoist militants were killed in fresh clashes with the security forces in the mid-western district of Kalikot. Security forces seized one VHF telephone set, seven home-made guns, ammunition and Maoist documents. The Maoist militants looted two trucks of food grains from far-western district of Kailali. 12.          A group of three Maoists triggered a powerful bomb blast at the residence of a former chairman of Royal Council standing committee in Chitwan district, but there were no reports of casualties in the incident.  14.          In Paklihawa, a Maoist section commander, Ramesh Choudhary, was beaten to death by the villagers. 15.          At least 21 security personnel were killed in clash with Maoists in Arghakhanchi. Villagers of Suryapura beat four Maoists to death when the militants tried to abduct a local man. At least 10 Maoist militants were killed in clashes with security forces in Lamjung district. Four security personnel were injured in the incident.  16.          Maoists abducted at least 500 students and teachers from various schools in Doti district.  At least 17 Maoists were killed in clashes with security forces in Dailekh district. Two civilians were injured in the incident.  17.          Maoist militants abducted 103 government schoolteachers from the remote hilly areas of Nawalparasi district. 18.           At least four policemen including an inspector were killed in a Maoist attack, at the Ilaka Police Post at Sankhu, Kathmandu. 19.          A junior Maoist leader, Prashant, committed suicide in Royal Nepalese Army’s (RNA) cell at Balaju, Kathmandu. At least six Maoists and 10 security persons were killed in separate clashes in Kailali and Kharidhunga Mude in the Dolakha-Sindhupalchowk border. At least three Maoists were killed in latest security action in the far-western district of Kailali. 20.          Maoist militants detonated a powerful bomb at the hydro-electricity project in Bajura district. The blast completely damaged the 200 KW powerhouse situated at Selaghat in the district headquarters.  Maoist militants exploded bombs and destroyed four government offices and six public houses in Terhathum district. 22.          The Maoist militants torched 18 trucks en route to Kathamndu at Kharanga near Manahari River in Makwanpur district along the Mahendra Highway.  At least one security person was killed in a clash with the Maoists near Phaplu airport in mountainous district of Solukhumbu. Five security personnel were killed and seven others injured when a group of Maoist militants attacked at an army patrol at Karnali-Chisapani area in the far-western region. 23.          At least 22 Maoists and two security persons were killed in a clash at Suryanaka area in the western district of Arghakhanchi. A group of armed Maoists abducted about 200 students from Badimalika Higher Secondary School at Sugarkhal in the far-Western district of Kailali. The Maoists forcibly took the senior students of the school to unknown destinations to impart a 2-month-long military training.                 In eastern Bhojpur district, the militants shot and killed an 80-year-old social activist, Dan Bahadur Karki. The reason behind the killing is not yet known. 24.          At least two security personnel including a Major of Royal Nepalese Army (RNA) were killed while trying to diffuse explosives planted by Maoists along Mahendranagar –Atariya Highway.            Maoists killed three persons and injured five others in Paklihawa VDC, Nawalparasi district, for forming an anti-rebel group.  26.          At least four Maoists were killed in an encounter with security forces when they attempted to break the security cordon in Parbat district. 27.          Maoists burned down four taxis at Dolalghat in Kavre district ‘for defying the blockade’. The militants took the taxies under control, sprinkled petrol on them and set fire, turning the cabs completely into cinders. 28.          At least three Maoist militants were killed in skirmishes with security forces in Banke district.             Maoist militants killed President of Shiva Sena Nepal, Nepalgunj branch Arun Singh Budhathoki.
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