Paper no. 907	28. 01. 2004
MUSHARRAF VISITS TURKEY & DAVOS EXPLAINS PAKISTAN’S NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION   by K. Gajendra Singh Pakistan President Gen Pervez Musharraf, a self proclaimed admirer of Kemal Ataturk, who forged the secular republic of Turkey from the ashes of the Sultan-Caliph ruled Ottoman empire, replied when asked if Pakistan perceived Turkey as a model country: "No, Turkey is a brother country to us, but not a model country.  Political facts of the two countries are very different.  Turkey's model doesn't work in Pakistan. We may take some lessons from Turkey but we adopt these lessons to our own conditions. " Gen Musharraf was on his way to attend the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland and broke his journey in Turkey for a 2-day state visit from 20 January 2004.  It may be recalled that when Gen Musharraf took over as “Chief Executive “ on 12 October 1999, he first established a National Security Council (NSC) on the Turkish model which was later enshrined in the Pakistani constitution.  After anointing himself President of Pakistan in June 2000, he got himself confirmed in the post after a some what dubious referendum in April 2002 and now presides over the Council, dominated by the military and the most important decision making body.  Gen Musharraf also copied many other measures, which General Kenan Evren implemented after the 1980 coup in Turkey apart from the establishment of the all powerful NSC.  Gen. Musharraf had first turned up in Ankara in November soon after taking power on 12 October, 1999 as “Chief Executive” of Pakistan after ousting prime minister Nawaz Sharif, much to the embarrassment of his hosts.  Both President Suleyman Demirel and Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit had been jailed after the 1980 coup d’etat by General Evren, whom Gen Musharraf was keen to meet for counsel.  He was dissuaded from doing so.  Musharraf had come on an earlier invitation from the Turkish Chief of General Staff, who was then away abroad.  Musharraf did stop by in Istanbul in 2002 while returning from a visit to the West. But, of course, Musharraf knows Turkey only too well, having spent in early 1950s, his six impressionable school years in Ankara, where his father was posted as a Junior diplomat in the Pakistani Mission.  Since then a lot of water has flowed up and down the Bosporus, especially the watershed  September 11 attacks which stunned USA and the world and changed the course of contemporary history.  Faced with an ultimatum from USA Musharraf had to jettison decades long Pakistan policy of support to Talebans and Jihadi elements in Afghanistan and their guests Osama bin Laden and his Al Qaeda and join the US led war on terrorism beginning with a war on Afghanistan ruled by Taleban Emir Mullah Omar. Neither the top Taleban leadership nor bin Laden and major Al Qaeda leaders have been apprehended.  Then came the 13 December 2001 attacks on the Indian parliament by terrorists trained in Afghanistan and Pakistan, followed by massive Indian military deployment on its borders with Pakistan and President Musharraf’s statement on 13 January 2002 eschewing any support to terrorist elements in Pakistan who operated inside against India.  That promise has not been kept and the support to US war led war against terrorism has not been found up to the mark.  U.S.-led efforts with international support to pacify Afghanistan and establish democracy under President Hamid Karzai remains almost a mission impossible, with former warlords ruling the roost almost every where except in Kabul. Turkey was the first Muslim country to offer its troops in November 2001 as part of a Nato force to stabilise Afghanistan, Pakistan's neighbour, after U.S. led forces had ousted the Taliban regime in end 2001.  After the Demise of the Baathist regime and the end of major hostilities in April, both Turkey and Pakistan were asked to contribute troops to U.S.-led forces to stabilize Iraq.  Ankara agreed but withdrew the offer in the face of Iraqi opposition, while Pakistan declined in the absence of a U.N.-endorsed force and faced with strong internal opposition. Although long standing allies and beholden to USA, Pakistan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and other Muslim countries find themselves at the receiving end and are trying to tentatively coordinate their response to the crusader like view of neo-cons in the administration and others in USA. Fourteen out of 19 hijackers who carried out the 11 September attacks Were Saudis. Although bilateral relationships between USA and the three countries are on different levels, no one knows what is in store for them or how the political and strategic situation would evolve in the region.  Diminished role of Military in Turkey;  Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development party (AKP) party exploited last August the requirement that it conform to Europe Union constitutional norms if it wanted to join it. Turkish Parliament passed a constitutional amendment that transformed the NSC, dominated by the Turkish armed forces, into an advisory civilian body.  Many senior EU officials had openly demanded that Turkish politics be freed from the military's influence, and its laws aligned to match European constitutions for Turkey to qualify for entry.  The reforms reduced the military's hold over policy making through the Council that was often used by the army top brass to impose their will on the government and even dismiss governments.  The amendments transformed the Council into an advisory body, with no executive powers.  The number of times that the council meets has been limited, and a civilian would head its secretariat, rather than a General.   Perhaps taking a leaf from Turkey, Pakistani political leaders also agitated to reduce Musharraf’s power. He could convene the National Assembly in Islamabad recently only after he had agreed to relinquish his post of the Army Chief by end 2004. The tactics employed to keep the vociferous opposition out by hijacking deputies and the rumpus inside the Assembly brought little credit to the fledgling democracy in Pakistan.  Musharraf’s Visit to Turkey; President and Mrs Musharraf accompanied by the ministers for finance and commerce, the governor of the State Bank of Pakistan, members of the National Assembly and other senior officials were welcomed on 20 January by Turkish President Ahmet Necdet Sezer, who said that ''Turkey is the second homeland of Mr. President (Musharraf ). Turkish nation has always had special feelings for Pakistan,'' He added that ''Our relations with Pakistan are at perfect level that can constitute a model for all countries. There are broad opportunities to further improve our cooperation and we wish to use all these opportunities.''  Musharraf’s official talks with President Sezer and Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan covered recent developments on Afghanistan, Iraq, Palestine and Cyprus, according to a Pakistani spokesman.  Musharraf also briefed his hosts on Pakistan- India relations, including the Kashmir dispute and Pakistan's recently improved relations with India. Indian prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee and foreign minister Yeshwant Sinha visited Turkey last year. Without the baggage of cold war era, when India and Turkey were in the opposite camps, relations between economically resurgent India and Turkey have blossomed in recent years.  Press reports even suggested close bilateral military relations and even a nexus with Israel with whom Turkey has alliance level relationship. India’s defence co-operation with Israel has made quantum jumps.  Pakistani ambassador Sher Afghan Khan in Ankara and a spokesman in Islamabad talked of jump starting a tangible defence cooperation between the two countries and translating it into joint production of major military equipment. Significantly, President Musharraf's visit to Turkey followed exchange of high-level visits between defence officials of the two countries including visits by the two defence ministers. Musharraf's Ankara talks come seven months after Erdogan's visit to Pakistan last June. Recently Turkish Deputy Army Chief of Staff General Ilker Basbug - visited Islamabad to pave the way for concrete bilateral defense ties. Dr. Abdul Qadir Khan, known as father of Pakistani Atomic bomb came to Turkey in mid 1990s but the visit was hushed up.  With the Greeks having acquired some missiles capability, Turks have quietly shopped around for missile related technology.  During Musharraf’s visit several Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs) covering cooperation in combating international terrorism and organised crime as well as in the health and banking sectors were signed. Pakistan and Turkey, who are both founding members of the Economic Cooperation Organization, a 10-member regional forum that promotes trade in Central Asia and the Caspian area for the promotion of trade, want bilateral trade to reach one billion dollars by 2005. Annual trade volume between the two countries currently stands at around $170 million. In comparison India's exports to Turkey were $564 million and imports $70 million in 2002 - a total trade turnover of $634 million.   In a gesture to honour Musharraf a special session of the Turkish Parliament was called for his address. Although quite fluent in Turkish, he spoke in English. Musharraf told the Parliament that the Muslim world has special responsibilities after the September 11 period.  But he did complain that nobody raised voices when the terrorist radical Islamist forces arrived in the region to fight the Soviet Union.  Pointing to recent terrorist activities in Pakistan and Turkey, Musharraf said that these terrorists were doing harm to Islam. But he added that, "The moderate Muslims are more powerful than the radical Islamist militants who seem to be stronger than they are in fact. We should be in efforts to prove that to the world."  He called on moderate Muslims for a struggle against Islamist radicalism and said Turkey and Pakistan should be the leading countries in this struggle. "We are passing through a very difficult time. The West has begun to perceive Islam as a religion giving credits to terrorism. Pakistan and Turkey are powerful enough to change this perception." The Organization for Islamic Conference (OIC) is one of the platforms where this struggle can be organized.  This year's OIC meeting in May would be important. Musharraf said that the issue of reforms in the Muslim world should top the agenda during this meeting. Musharraf also mentioned that Turkey's candidacy for the post of secretary-general of the organization was brought to his notice. (Turkey will officially announce its candidacy in the May meeting). But Musharraf didn't say if Pakistan would support Turkey's candidacy. He only said: "Malaysia and Bangladesh are also candidates. They asked for support, too. We will discuss this issue." Regarding Ankara’s European Union membership Musharraf said that when Turkey becomes an EU member, it would serve as a bridge between the Muslim world and Europe. “Pakistan fully supports the Turkish Cypriots’ struggle for their just cause,” Musharraf added Turkey and Pakistan, both Sunni Muslim democratic countries have close ties with the West but the two polities are veering to wards Islam with growing militant violence. The ruling AKP, which won 66% seats in the Parliament in November 2002 elections has Islamic roots. For the first time an Islamic roots party formed a government in Turkish republic’s history. Similarly in Pakistan fundamentalist Islamic parties have shown the best election results forming governments in two provinces adjoining Afghanistan and with good strength in the Federal Assembly. But Turkey in particular is seen as a model "Muslim democracy" that should be emulated elsewhere. Ankara, a candidate to join the European Union, portrays itself as a potential channel to strengthen European influence in the Islamic world.   President Musharraf, who survived two assassination attempts within days of each other in December in high security zone, a few hundred yards away from his Army  Chief’s residence blamed it on Islamic militants opposed to his support for the U.S.-led war on terror.  One was a blast on a bridge he had just crossed, the other was a suicide car bomb attack that killed 15 people but left him unhurt.  While pinpointing Osama Bin Laden's al-Qaeda network, which recently issued a warning to him, he ruled out suggestions that any Kashmiri militant group was involved "This has nothing to do with whatever is happening in Kashmir. Al-Qaeda has nothing to do with Kashmir." Musharraf has now shifted to the official residence of the President located in a more secure place. No serving Pakistani military chief and President at the same time did so in the past. The “Cat” with nine lives has been shaken.  On the other hand suicide bombings a few days after each other claimed by Jihadis killed at least 61 people in Istanbul in November. Turkish press reports said some of the militants behind the attacks were trained in extremist camps in Pakistan. Pakistan, which proclaims that it fully supports Washington's anti-terror drive, is apparently keen to trace any possible links between radical Turkish Islamic groups and al-Qaeda. Turkey, in return, is actively investigating possible ties between the perpetrators of the November Istanbul bombings and Pakistani-based terrorist cells. The intelligence services of Turkey and Pakistan co-operate closely with U.S. agencies. So they also signed an accord on fight against terror, but no details were given. "The cooperation agreement on the fight against international terrorism and organised crime reflects our common determination regarding the fight against terror," Turkish President Sezer told a joint news conference.  In an interview with Ankara’s Turkish daily News of 19 January, Pakistan Ambassador Sher Afghan Khan stated that his country backed Turkish opposition to the proposed Kurdish autonomy under Iraq's new political system, which Ankara feared could stir similar aspirations among its own Kurdish minority. "If you in Turkey are not happy with a particular political development, you will always find us behind you," the newspaper quoted Khan as saying. "(The) territorial integrity of Iraq should be maintained as it was before the invasion." Khan, in particular, mentioned weapons production as a possible area of cooperation.  Ambassador Khan cited domestic opposition in both Islamabad and Baghdad to justify his country's refusal to send troops to Iraq. Khan insisted Pakistan would stick to its decision unless the United Nations authorized the deployment of foreign soldiers in Iraq.  Pakistani media reported in recent weeks that Washington is also pushing Islamabad to imitate Ankara and normalize relations with Israel. There has even been speculation in Pakistan that the recent assassination attempts against Musharraf were prompted by discreet steps he has taken to explore a possible rapprochement with the Jewish state. Pakistan’s Nuclear proliferation problems; According to the Saturday Tribune, run by a Pakistani journalist in USA, a special report which carried earlier in January the transcript of a debate on America’s national public radio channel “ most Democrat contenders for US presidency believe that General Musharraf has not been an honest ally.” Describing Pakistan as one of the “most dangerous countries” and charging it with having “misled” the world on its nuclear activities, almost all US presidential aspirants from the Democratic party want the American policy towards Islamabad to be tougher. The participants in the debate included six Democrats; Governor Howard Dean (Vermont), Congressman Dick Gephardt (Missouri), senator John Kerry (Massachussetts), Congressman Dennis Kucinich (Ohio), Senator Joe Lieberman (Connecticut) and former ambassador Carol Moseley Braun (Illinois). Kerry was quoted as saying “Pakistan has, frankly, misled the US and the world with respect to its proliferation responsibilities for years ... I am convinced we can be tougher with Pakistan”. “The spectre of an Islamic radical state with nuclear weapons is unacceptable for the world and that is what is at risk in Pakistan today. .... There are steps that we could now take to deal with the northwest component, where Osama bin Laden is. We know he’s up there. We have not pushed hard enough”, Kerry was quoted as saying.   Braun was quoted in the transcript as saying: “We have to work with the Pakistanis but (should) be very clear about the fact that our interests and their interests may not be coherent .... We have to be very clear about who it is we’re dealing with”. Gephardt said  Pakistan “have nuclear power. I think the (US) administration has failed a lot in doing something to stop the Saudi support for ‘madarsas’ in especially Pakistan which are producing terrorists. You have now had two attacks on Musharraf”.  After becoming US ally in its war against terrorism after 11 September, Pakistan has allowed an almost free run to US defence personnel in its military establishments and installations. Never was USA’s Federal Bureau of Investigation so well installed and present in Pakistan . But US suspicions about Pakistani co-operation remain as expressed above and are leaked out to media from time to time. But it is a complex and delicate problem.  In an interview with CNN while attending the World Economic Forum in Davos, Musharraf said that it appeared Pakistani scientists might have sold nuclear secrets abroad for personal gains, but reiterated Islamabad's position that there was no official involvement. In Pakistan’s covert nuclear programme which was given great autonomy and freedom some Pakistanis might have done it. Pakistan has begun questioning its nuclear scientists, including the father of its atomic bomb, Abdul Kadir Khan, after the U.N. nuclear agency began investigating possible links between the Pakistani and Iranian nuclear programmes. The investigation, launched in November, would be finished in "a few weeks", Musharraf told CNN.  But he stressed that : "There is no such evidence that any government personality or military personality was involved in this at all." He vowed "stern action" against any violators: "There is nothing that we want to hide, we want to be very up and clear about it that we will move against anybody who proliferated," he said. But he added that similar allegations were made against European individuals and countries, "So it is not Pakistan alone". International Atomic Energy Agency chief Mohamed El Baradei when asked in Davos if nuclear know-how and technology might have reached Iran or Libya from Pakistan replied: "I think what we know is that there have been individuals involved. I do not want to jump to conclusions and say a government is involved." Two Dutch ministers said last week that there were "indications" North Korea and Libya might have acquired potentially arms related nuclear technology developed by British-Dutch-German consortium Urenco that Pakistan and Iran are known to possess. Dr. Abdul Kadir Khan worked for Urenco in the 1970s. After his return to Pakistan in the 1980s he was sentenced in absentia by an Amsterdam court to four years' jail for attempted espionage. That decision was later overturned on appeal. (K Gajendra Singh, Indian ambassador (retired), served as ambassador to Turkey from August 1992 to April 1996 with concurrent accreditation to Azerbaijan.  He was earlier posted as ambassador to Jordan, Romania and Senegal .He is currently chairman of the Foundation for Indo-Turkic Studies. The views expressed are his own  Email Gajendrak@hotmail.com)
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